The Blog · Since 2011
Chart Addict
Where the charts do the talking.
I've been charting markets for nearly 20 years — from the prop desk in Scottsdale to holding longer and longer on the weekly charts. I work top-down: monthly for the big picture, weekly for the trend, daily for entries.
Here you'll find my charts of interest, setups and notes on stocks, indices and crypto, plus 15 years of archives.
$DE Completing it's Measured Move
DE is within about 50 cents of completing it's measured move since breaking out on 3/18/11
$FFIV - Short Entry or Reversal
Possible short entry as it pulls back to 120.60/21d moving average at 103.89. I'd almost wait to see if it can break this descending trend line. Somewhat of a descending wedge.
$APC ready to move.
While my first entry in APC was on the break of 83.00, I was stopped out which gave me some time reevaluate. Over the past few days it has been holding above 81 and started trading side way creating a flag, allow time for the moving averages to catch up. If you break down to the 30 or 60 minute chart a move above 83.50 or this descending trend line should signal a move higher with stops under that 10dma. A pull in to the 21/50 day moving averages certainly wouldn't be out of the question. Anything is possible.
Trading down today while the market remained strong isn't what I wanted to see. It will remain on my watch list.
10week line sits at 79.40
10sma at 80.98
21sma at 79.68
50sma at 78.83
Showing a lot of support in the 78-80 area.
Trading down today while the market remained strong isn't what I wanted to see. It will remain on my watch list.
10week line sits at 79.40
10sma at 80.98
21sma at 79.68
50sma at 78.83
Showing a lot of support in the 78-80 area.
30min
Daily
Traders Ask: How Do You Detect Overconfidence?
SMBtraining.com/blog
Hi guys
After a rotten 12 months I’ve had a cracker of a month not just with the recent bull run but with the preceding drop also. This has occurred after stepping back, refining a trading entry methodology based around volume (exit and money management are already in place) and focusing on this play. Obviously I’m proud of myself, but pride comes before a fall as they say.
Past success runs have often been burnt with a bad run straight after. Can you tell me what techniques you offer your traders to identify signs of overconfidence and over-trading and to keep it (especially overconfidence) in check?
Bella
Great job asking the right questions. Terrific work recognizing a pattern in your past that needs work.
Volatile swings in your P&L can be a danger signal of trading overconfidence. Going from down much more than normal to flat is a very dangerous signal. A big rip is likely coming.
Starting your pre-game preparation later than normal is something to watch. I am doing well I do not need to get in early. There is a fine line between doing very well and underperforming. A slight change in your start time can start a downtrend.
What are some warning signs for you that indicate overconfidence?
Mike Bellafiore
Author, One Good Trade
National Inflation Association
National Inflation Association - 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation
Where I went wrong placing my stop in $APC
I had my stop placed 2pts. from my entry at 83.17, at 81.17. However, after looking closer at my 30 min chart, I should've had it in two spots. Either on a break of the 50ma at 82.35 or a little below 81.00. That's not to say this trade is going to work or not. I just felt I was stopped out prematurely.
