Chapters
00:00 Intro: Nick's on PTO
00:33 GP: The Lockout Rally
03:44 Ben: Until Things Break, Ride the Trend
05:46 GP: The Dollar Correlation Broke
09:26 GP: Biotech's Two-Year Base
10:26 Tesla at the 61.8% Retracement
14:08 Cybertruck Rust & the Super Bowl Ad
17:13 Bitcoin at $50,000 & the Miners
19:46 ARM's 91% in Three Days
22:51 Disney & the Sports Streaming App
25:26 GP: Breakouts Are Getting Rewarded
27:57 GP: Waste Management, IBM & GE
31:03 GP: Zillow's Cup
33:37 GP: Good Earnings, Bad Reaction
34:39 GP: Goldman Starts to Resolve
37:13 Viewer Charts: On Holding & Airbnb
38:45 Shopify's Range Breaks
41:17 Robinhood's New App Features
45:54 3M, Live Nation & GlobalFoundries
48:29 Enphase, PayPal & Alibaba
50:33 Transports & IPO Bases
51:05 Q1 Picks Check-In
55:46 Carvana, CarMax & Ford
57:30 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #103 went out live on Monday evening, February 12, with Ben and GP while Nick took some PTO. GP called it a "lockout rally," with the QQQs up 60–70 points since around 372 in November and people struggling to find entries. He wants the love to spread from the chip names to solid earnings names like Meta and Netflix. The hosts covered the broken dollar correlation, biotech, Tesla, the Cybertruck, ARM, breakouts finally getting rewarded, Zillow, Goldman, Shopify, Robinhood's new features and the Q1 picks.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said that on days when the megas paused and everything else was green, he joked that the generals were going to be first to fall this time. "Until you see things start breaking down there's no reason to turn bearish. You just ride the trend." "If your positions not working in this market then you might want to rethink your positions." He's watching the 10-year, which has hovered around 4% "for weeks now and hasn't been the end of the world yet." On Tesla, he said it's been in a downtrend since October 2021 and below all its weekly moving averages, and it could be holding here or setting up a bear-flag breakdown. "It's a frustrating position to be in."
He raised reports of unhappy Cybertruck owners, including rust and wheel covers damaging tires. He thinks it "just poisons the well a little bit more" for other potential Tesla buyers and plants a seed of doubt in consumers' minds. As a sports fan, he'd love to watch most sports on Hulu through Disney's planned all-in-one sports app, but the Wall Street Journal reported the NBA and NFL weren't brought into the conversation ahead of time. On Shopify, he drew range lines that line up with the all-time-high top. "I want to see Shop stay in this upper range but I have a feeling it's going to pull back into this middle range again." In the Q1 picks check-in, his Freshworks long is "in a little bit of a chop," GP's Advance Auto Parts is "looking okay" against an 81.82 target, and Nick's United Rentals, picked December 11 at 505.14, "just keeps on moving."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said breadth expanded today, but he'd like to see more than "just SMCI, Nvidia and ARM making all-time highs in rotation of days." Netflix has traded inside its earnings-day wick for 14 days, and Meta is going sideways. Financials usually lead small caps, and they've been doing well for a couple of months, so "if the leader of the index you're following is starting to break out most likely the others will follow suit." He said the dollar-stock correlation "broke in 2022." DXY was 114 in September 2022 and is about 104 now, the dollar is only down about 10% while markets are up nearly 70%, and "we are 180 points off the bottom in the QQQs." The 10-year near 4% is where "the market is telling you this is where rates need to come," not five and a quarter.
Biotech has been sideways since August or September 2022: "if you need reason for ammo for the markets to move higher especially in small caps here's your reason." It's a nearly two-year base, and if XBI breaks out, so do small caps. Tesla looks like the January 2022 bottom, with a wick lower that stops everyone out, then sideways action before moving higher. It held the nine-day moving average and wicked off 177.25, the 61.8% retracement from the January 2023 lows to the May 2023 high. Still, "I personally don't see what their growth trajectory is here," since a Model Y can be had for about $35,000, cheaper than a Honda CR-V. He doesn't see growth coming from the Cybertruck either, so "this is when you got to focus on the chart."
He said breakouts are finally being rewarded, which he thinks last happened in August and September 2020. Costco's chart looks exactly like Nvidia's, "yet no one talks about Costco," and Waste Management and FICO are market leaders outside tech. IBM broke out of two decades of range-bound action, and GE broke its long downtrend: "this is stuff that doesn't happen in bear markets." Home Depot is getting out of its correction. Zillow doubled from about 26 to almost 57, corrected and now sits at the pivot highs from the 2020 COVID selloff in a cup-like consolidation ahead of earnings. "I use good earnings but bad reaction as a 100% opportunity," citing SentinelOne, up 120% a few months after he bought that dip. Monday.com's reaction to great earnings may be that kind of opportunity.
Goldman was sideways for about two months at a pivot high, waited for the moving averages to catch up and is starting to break out. "If the leaders start to lead what happens to the others? They usually end up starting to follow." He knows the market is overbought, but he sees "resolutions to the upside," just slower than people got used to over the last 15 years of free money. He doesn't like IPOs, and IPO bases "can take one year, two years, seven years," like Nutanix's. On Holding has distribution on the monthly, so he'd wait. Shopify "is known for the shakes before the bakes" and needs to clear 112. Robinhood has "one of the best interfaces," and its new features show net customer buying and selling, hedge fund activity and real-time insider trades. "Transparency is the key." 3M still hasn't reached his order down near 82.
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