Chapters
00:00 Intro: Live From the Honeycomb Hideout
00:32 Monkey: Still in the Next-Leg-Down Camp
03:38 GP: Gap and Go Into the VIX Expiry
05:10 GP: All-Time Highs by the End of Q2
08:45 Valuations and Rates
11:50 GP: A Blow-Off Top Environment
14:59 GP: Momentum vs Fundamentals
18:34 GP: An Options-Driven Move Down
20:34 Favorite Mega Cap: Apple
23:08 GP: Facebook's Three-Year Base
30:19 Are the Generals Last to Fall?
31:25 Amazon and a Dividend
32:58 GP: Apple's 2012 Dividend
35:36 Viewer Questions: Airbnb
37:07 The Three Peaks and the Bears
41:12 Cookie_M Joins
42:45 Cookie_M: The 2018 Scenario
44:48 Cookie_M: Long-Tail Events
46:20 Cookie_M: The Monthly Moving Averages
47:52 Cookie_M: The VIX at 35
50:27 Cookie_M: A Fed Pivot?
51:57 Cookie_M: Scaling In Against a Bearish Trend
53:28 Q&A: If the VIX Breaks Higher
54:59 Cookie_M: The VX Rising Wedge
1:03:10 Cookie_M: The Fed and the Contract Rollover
1:06:15 Cookie_M: Surprisingly Unrandom
1:06:48 Digesting Cookie_M's VIX Chart
1:18:06 Oil and OPEC
1:21:10 Commodities Lead Year to Date
1:25:16 What Everyone Is Watching
1:32:26 GP: Warning Shots
1:34:29 GP: How He Reads the VIX
1:38:09 GP: VIX Expiration and Three Lower Highs
1:40:46 Ben: Bitcoin and the Weekly 21 EMA
1:42:48 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #13 went out live on Wednesday, March 9, as a Honeycomb Hideout session with Ben and GP, plus guest Cookie_M, who joined from Bangkok partway through. Nick was not on. GP stayed in the all-time-highs-by-Q2 camp, calling the selloff options driven ahead of a big VIX expiry. Cookie_M said the market is tracking the 2018 scenario, with a VIX top near 35 and a rising wedge in the VX. The group also covered Apple vs Facebook among the mega caps, Google's split, oil, commodities and Bitcoin's weekly 21 EMA.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said "the market is actually moving very similar to how it did" in 2018, when Q4 2018 was three rough months "and then it ended with a huge crash christmas week." "You can't bet on long tail events having high probability," and "i think we're pretty close to a low in the market i don't think we're going to see much lower if we get any lower it could be another three or four percent if that." It "lines up with the vix topping out at around 35 which is a key level which differentiates between pretty pretty sizable pull back in the market versus an absolute crash." "All they need to do is to slightly walk back what they said they may do in 2022 and the market might see that as a green signal." In a bearish trend, "we want to have scales which are sufficiently spaced apart." He drew a "rising wedge in the vx," and said "look for the breakdown in the vix but be prepared in case it goes the other way," with "a contract rollover on the 15th." "It's surprisingly unrandom."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "apple has remained the strongest of all the megas," "microsoft might be second," and Google has "the split that's six months away." His group is "nvidia google amazon tesla," and "facebook is not one that i consider" among the mega caps he really likes. On Bitcoin, "we still got to cross this 44 mark which is basically the weekly 21 ema," and "if you can escape this wedge and escape the weekly 21 i think we could be" leading again, though "we might be seeing some decoupling."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "i was expecting a gap and go scenario," and "my general thought has been this is options market related and we have a big vix expiry coming into next tuesday." He's still in the camp for all-time highs by the end of the second quarter, and "we're closer to the bottom" than the top. "I'm in the camp that where we're in a blow off top environment potential." "Momentum of the market has nothing to do with with where fundamentals lie," and "the derivative of market is continuously starting to become the actual market." Facebook "is sitting at a at a three-year base support," so "i think it's stronger than apple," and "that's why i bought facebook." With Google's split, "you've given wall street five months to collect premiums." On the VIX, "we've had now three lower highs on the vix i think we're eventually going to come down," but "if we break lower the vix explodes and it's not a one or two day event." Big swings are "all just warning shots to me and there's a bigger kind of secular trend."
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