Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M Joins the Whole Crew
00:35 Cookie_M: It's Not the End of the World
02:41 Cookie_M: A Pure Technical Trader Into the Fed
06:14 GP: Week 17 Since the Highs
08:17 Cookie_M: Scenarios and Fractals
11:49 Nick: The AUY, Gold and the GLD
16:25 Cookie_M: The 2018 Fractal
19:27 Cookie_M: The Nine-Week Moving Average
26:38 GP: Charts Predict the News
28:39 GP: The 20-Month Moving Average
33:14 Cookie_M: Can the VIX Be Charted?
36:48 What Would Make You Bearish?
42:28 GP: Rotation, Not a Crisis
46:04 Cookie_M: Trading vs Investing
48:06 Cookie_M: Affirm and Young Charts
58:19 Cookie_M: Bottoms Are About Time
59:22 GP: Waiting for IPOs to Base
1:05:03 Cookie_M: Can the SPY Hit 390 in a Bull Market?
1:07:38 Cookie_M: Avalara's Monthly Chart
1:13:17 Cookie_M: Alibaba and Repeating Volatility
1:14:50 Cookie_M: Trading Around a Core Position
1:17:50 Cookie_M: What Could Go Wrong With the ES
1:19:21 Cookie_M: Airbnb's Moving Averages Converge
1:25:33 Nick: Symmetry and ABCD Patterns
1:28:38 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #15 went out live on Tuesday, March 15, the day before the Fed decision, with guest Cookie_M joining Ben, Nick and GP. Cookie_M said it's not the end of the world and called this as good a spot as any for a bottom, with a 2018-style fractal in play and time mattering as much as price. GP said the selling is a rotation out of tech, not a crisis. The four also covered the nine-week and 20-month moving averages, charting the VIX, gold, Affirm, IPO bases, Avalara, Alibaba, trading around a core position and Airbnb.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said "i'm a pure technical trader," and with catalysts like the FOMC, "i won't fight what i see happening in the chart ever." He uses the four-hour chart "quite a lot" to spot an early trend change, and asked "what if q4 2018 isn't a fractal isn't a complete fractal but it's part of a larger fractal." "For me this is a bearish trend simply because the nine weeks of moving average is falling," but "i need price to hold the support for long enough that eventually takes out the nine" week. "I'm not stating that we will necessarily go higher what i'm saying is this is as good a spot as any for us to do so." "I am bullish if the moving averages are pointing up and bearish if the moving averages are pointing down and that's it." On Affirm, "your entry point doesn't make any difference if it's in a bearish trend," and "the bottoms you are looking for are not" about price, "they're about time." For the SPY, "price could go down to 390 380 370 360. it makes no difference what what makes the difference is how long it stays down there for." On Alibaba, "it may take four or five months to bottom." With Airbnb, "the convergence of moving averages" ends a consolidation. Trading around a core, "i bought amd at 105. when i decide to trim some of that out i'm selling those 105s and not the lower cost basis."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said his remaining position "is the aui," and on gold, "i really don't like the daily or the weekly right now." "We need a monthly close like above i don't know 185 180 8ish to even look good otherwise it just looks like a complete double top." The 10-week line "is sitting there at like 175." "Price typically moves in symmetrical fashion," and "you can play an abcd pattern alongside the short side but if the longer term trend is up" a move down is a buying chance.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said the market was having a nice little rally, and in bear rallies you can expect some volatility, "but overall nothing has changed," as "we're still waiting on the fomc tomorrow." He pointed new viewers to Cookie_M's earlier show: "go back and watch that from january 25th." He also asked the panel "what would it take for you to get bearish."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "this week is the week 17 since we hit all-time highs on the nqs," and "everyone's already expecting a 50 basis point hike." Option "premiums are high," so "it limits me from trading a lot." Charts can usually predict the news that's coming. The 20-month moving average "has held the" S&P "for the most part since" the 1980s. "It's rotation so it's rotation out of tech into commodities and metals," not a 2008-type crisis. On IPOs, "wait for the base to form and look for that volume kind of capitulation spike to the downside," and there was no reason for Rivian to IPO at $100 billion.
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