Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:54 Week 14 of the Range & QQQs at the 50-Day
06:12 GP: From Swing Trader to "Four-Minute Man"
08:25 Tesla Relative Strength & a Twitter Misunderstanding
12:09 Broadcom & Oracle Slide the Market
14:13 Flush Levels: $AVGO & $MSFT
19:33 $AMD's Island Risk & GP's $MSFT Long
21:12 Ben's $MSFT "Batman" Pattern
22:52 Netflix's 45% Haircut & Spotify
26:34 Physical AI: FSD, Rivian & AI Jobs Fears
33:43 80% Drawdowns, AI Rotation & $ORCL's Bottom
38:38 $NOW: Triangles, Monthly Lows & the April 9 Candle
47:54 VIX Expiration & the Japan Rate Decision
49:32 Amazon: 215, 195–200 & the Nine Monthly
55:18 Google's Island & GP's $META Trims
58:05 Nick's Givebacks: $DOCN & $LUNR
1:03:23 Keeping Losses Small & Defensive Breakouts
1:06:06 Tesla, the Ultimate Momo
1:08:15 Ego, Greed & Peeling Off at Resistance
1:13:08 Final Words
Market Hours #158 went out live on Tuesday, December 16, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben introduced himself as "just some guy who's buying all the dips and running out of money buying dips." The QQQs were in week 14 of the range and holding the daily 50 "by a hair" after Broadcom and Oracle slid the market. GP joked that 2025 had turned him from swing trader to day trader to "the four-minute man," and by the end of the show he'd joked his way down to a 30-second man. The crew mapped flush levels in Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon and the QQQs. They also covered GP's Oracle bottom call, ServiceNow's 5-for-1 split and the April 9 candle, physical AI, VIX expiration and the Japan rate decision, and a candid talk about giving back gains.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said week 14 of range-bound action does "the most damage both to our psyche and probably our P&L" for active traders. Day traders have opportunity, but intermediate swing traders don't get follow-through. He gave back some nice gains and didn't want the QQQs to take out the day's low. SPY was holding above the November 20 high-volume candle, but the QQQs weren't. When price dips inside a high-volume candle, he thinks about a test of its low end. On the weekly, a pullback to about 585–590 would just be a fifth leg in the range, but "now is not my time to be pressing on the gas."
He defended his Microsoft 400–420 talk as a flush scenario. Broadcom's 330–385 range breakout failed after earnings, so it could go after the 300–310 gap or even undercut it, with the 200-day at 280. It was sitting on the floor of the prior range at 330–340. Microsoft has been sloppy around its 200-day with a bit of a bear flag, or a double bottom. In a flush, it could drop from 475 to 400–438 in a few sessions. A McClellan-type reading had come back to neutral from overbought, which leaves room to move violently either way, "like you got a minute to catch your breath." For Microsoft, he'd set an alert at 490 with 493 as the pivot. Broadcom's risk is easy to define: out below 328–330, and "step on the gas" above 380. He likes the SMH, with KLA and Lam Research looking phenomenal. AMD undercut the low of its October 6 gap-up twice and rallied, a potential higher low.
On Spotify and Netflix, which have traded similarly, he wondered whether Spotify at 500 would act as a magnet, with Netflix around the low-to-mid 80s. On ServiceNow, connecting the June 2024 and April lows to the highs gives a symmetrical triangle. On the daily it was filling the gap at 767, but the weekly has room to 720–730. That's the fifth wave of a higher low inside the triangle, and it lines up with prior pivot highs from 2021 in a 680–700 zone. He'd wait for the first AB or ABCD leg off the lows instead of catching the bottom. He doesn't love that its long-term moving averages are flat or falling, but "expensive stays expensive," and the 5-for-1 split the next day makes it about a $150 stock.
On Amazon, he sees a possible flush to 195–200, but 215, the pivot low, has to break first. If it gapped down to an open near 215, he'd buy it off the open as a day trade and peel most of it into strength. That would turn it into a double bottom with 238 as confirmation. A wide-range close below 215 means 195–200. A QQQs flush from 610 to about 580 would likely put the Mag 7 at the top of their April 9 candles, around 192–193 for Amazon, or holding the gap low near 198. He's not in any Mag 7 names right now.
On his givebacks, he said DigitalOcean's push toward 50 had his inner voice saying "peel some off" while he got more aggressive, and he gave back most of the trade. He waited for Intuitive Machines to clear 13 before doubling up, and that gave back too. Both brought back "2022 vibes." Losing trades are "the cost of doing business," and you can be right 30% of the time and still succeed. But "your last trade, your last five trades is no reflection of who you are." Giving back a winner hits harder than a flat loss, "under the ribs a little bit." His setups felt right, with the IWM breaking out and the QQQs flagging below 630, but price failed, and journaling can make you your own contrarian indicator. His last word: "Journal, journal, journal." He'll post his journal prompts and resources page on StockTwits.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said the QQQs were just under the level they'd set, holding the daily 50, and a close there "wouldn't be the worst thing." He said the Tesla Twitter dust-up was about time frame. You can expect Tesla to fall over one time frame and still be long-term bullish. He admitted he's "the king of top ticking," calling Amazon strong the previous Thursday before it fell while everything else rose. Since Broadcom reported, the market had been weak. That was the scenario he'd held cash for, and he's still heavily convicted in Broadcom: billions in backloaded business is "a high-quality problem." Oracle sank Wednesday and Broadcom Thursday, which fed the AI-bubble fear. "All it takes is a little scare to shake the market." He drew a "Batman" pattern on Microsoft. A true Batman wouldn't have bear-flagged, and patterns that don't play out "violently rip the other way," so a defined trade there is "probably going to hit the hit stick and go higher."
He argued AI is deflationary and frees people for more productive work, as every technology has. ServiceNow's rumored AI-security acquisition caused part of the dip, but its agents will free IT staff from closing tickets and malware sweeps. He's considering ServiceNow as a portfolio piece. On the monthly, the wicks show support, and he'd see it as a candidate to resume trend if it holds around 750–760, with the 700s down to 680 the most likely spot and maybe 50 points more before a bid. The April low at 683 is intact, but it's below where March and April closed and below the year's two biggest volume bars, so he's not "guns blazing." He bought Amazon at 220 and went big into Amazon and Broadcom from Thursday through Monday. He thinks 220–222 is a good buy, though it could reach 200. During the trend, the nine-month moving average "has been the key the whole way," and until 222 is reclaimed for the month, 215, which also lines up with the 50-week, is in play. It's under all its daily moving averages, but "I just feel like I'm getting it on a discount right now." He said Amazon reminds him of Google before it broke out, and joked he needs misery "to keep my yin and yang." His last word: he uploaded his written rules and journals to NotebookLM as a single source of truth. "Trust your process and stay in your process," and don't change it "just because you're bored."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP pulled up a five-minute NQ chart with four intraday rejections at the prior close: "this market is driven by algorithms and nothing else." He said Tesla had shown relative strength over the past month and a half. Someone accused him of being short Tesla, "I've been here since 2014," and later apologized, and his holiday lesson was "patience, kindness and tolerance." Being up $4 premarket isn't strong for a stock whose ATR is 18-plus. AMD looks susceptible to a breakaway island top from the OpenAI news, since OpenAI will struggle to meet its obligations. He took a long in Microsoft against its prior all-time-high pivot, with the rising 200-day making a double bottom. It hasn't done what Meta did, "but this doesn't move like Meta ever." He thinks it looks like Microsoft's April bottom, which retested about two weeks later and ripped. He thinks Oracle and Netflix may have bottomed.
He sold the rest of his Netflix at 929 pre-split, and it's back there after a roughly 45% haircut. It's like the 2015 split, when it based in the 130s. Netflix is now just a market gauge for him, with no interest in it or Spotify. He thinks the better opportunities are in physical AI. His Tesla has driven the last 400 miles without him touching the wheel, and Rivian's AI day move "looks strong as hell." He imagined sending a self-driving car for his 80-year-old dad. In the AI "bubble," nearly every chip name besides Broadcom, Nvidia and TSM had 80% drawdowns, with AMD falling from 227 to 78. "It's just rotation within it": ASML, Synopsys, Marvell, Micron. He thinks Oracle has bottomed despite credit-default-swap rumors ("Larry Ellison... has married more women than drawdowns you can ever take"). It undercut its green-hammer low at 181.40 and reversed. A reclaim of 188–190 is the better scenario, so he's trading it with about $5 of risk from 186.80.
On ServiceNow, he doesn't like monthly charts that make new lows, so for comfort it needs to reclaim the prior month's low around 795 by month-end. Many names are retesting their April 9 candles, as Meta just did, and ServiceNow was inside its April 9 candle and holding the gap, a defined risk. He pointed to a volume shelf at 638. The last VIX expiration of the year was the next day, and the Japan rate decision was close. He thinks the market has been deleveraging into the yen trade and could wick 2–3% lower on the news, then reverse. On Amazon, it's "like my gold trade": wait for the breakout instead of sitting in a year-plus of chop. With Google, you could have bought at 180 and still done well. Google was breaking down into an island-gap fill, and a pullback to the 20-week near 260 wouldn't be unheard of. He likes Meta off his 587 buy. He trimmed around 637, and if it loses that area he'd reduce more. There's a wick at 709 it could push toward. He trimmed more than half of his Rocket Lab from 42 at 63, because "this market's not conducive to breakouts." Breakouts are showing up in defensives like J&J and Amgen, not momentum names. Tesla, "the ultimate momo," was $6 under its all-time high, and he'd chase more after Thursday. It's been "a very technical year": names hit pivots and failed, like AMD at 181 before falling to 155. "Stage-one bases destroy your mental capital." His last word: "It's better to show compassion than to show aggression."
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod