Chapters
00:00 Intro
02:01 Still Trashy: Strong Mornings, Weak Closes
07:39 Wall of Worry & the $SMH at the 50-Day
09:29 QQQs: Week 12 of the Range
16:22 Why the Pair Trade Hurts Everyone
22:28 $META's 20/50 Cross Above the 200-Day
28:36 Gold & Bitcoin: Double Bottoms and Divergences
33:47 Multi-Decade Bases: Gold, Silver, Copper & $MU
37:34 $NBIS & the Jensen Effect
42:31 $RKLB's ABC Correction
47:26 Building the Short Muscle & Bear Traps
53:06 $NFLX & Crypto Coming Back
55:42 $HOOD: Monster Winner or Lower First?
1:04:26 Final Words
Market Hours #191 went out live on Tuesday, July 21 — GP's 45th birthday — with Ben, Nick and GP. After Friday's "apocalypse," the market had bounced for two days, led again by Micron and SanDisk while the mega caps lagged. GP argued leadership has to come from the leaders, Nick tracked week 12 of the Nasdaq range, and Ben was looking for the wall of worry to start climbing. From there it was Meta's moving-average cross, gold and Bitcoin, multi-decade bases, Nebius and the Jensen effect, Rocket Lab's correction, and a debate over Robinhood.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the market was in week 12 of the Nasdaq range, and with earnings that week and the next, the timing looked right. He'd like the QQQs to break out of the range this week or next. If they don't, he leans toward the floor dropping out to retest the 200-day, though he admitted the last big range took forever to resolve. Friday's gap down tested the high-volume low around 687 without the volume to push lower, so Friday was the bounce entry; now, back at mid-range, "you don't have much of an edge." He thinks Micron looks the best of the memory names and could put in a pocket pivot if volume picked up. Of the Mag names, Google is the one actually trending, with higher lows on the weekly. Microsoft is in a big range: a possible double bottom at 350 doesn't confirm on the weekly until 465, it's been range-bound since 2024, and you could argue a big rounded top — though he isn't there yet.
On gold, he's tying it to Bitcoin starting to push. On GLD, it's a short-term double bottom against 365 that confirms above 384, which should coincide with breaking the descending trend line and the declining 50-day near 390. That would also mean breaking out of a big descending wedge, which puts price back toward 500, with about a 25-point pocket between the 20-day and the 200-day. Bitcoin, for him, is "guilty until proven innocent" because it keeps failing at the 200-day, and its short-term ABCD measures right back to that level. He did note that the February capitulation, the June retest and the latest undercut all came without the volume or oscillator readings to push lower, which is a clue it should reverse.
On Nebius, he said he ignores what Jensen says and just looks at the chart, which he loves. He'd trade it against the 200 round number, with an undercut-and-rally entry around 193–194 as it reclaimed the low of the 195–280 range, and the 50-day was flattening rather than curling down. The 50% retracement of the high-to-low sits at 227, right with the 50-day — the next battle zone. Hold that, and he's in the camp that it heads back toward the highs. On the weekly, you could use last week's high-volume candle as risk, and a move through the highs puts a measured move at 400. If the market fails, he'd expect Nebius to fail around 225–227. He suspected some of the day's buying was short covering — bears who shorted under 190 were "getting bent over."
He said he scalped short trades in Rocket Lab and ASTS but didn't capture the swing short, and called it practice for the short side. He pointed out that since the 2022–2023 bottom the market has been "a perpetual bear trap," which is why he'd rather take longs near the low of the range than in the middle. On Robinhood, he liked a trade against Friday's candle or about 95, with the 38.2% at 98, the round number 100, and the 10-, 20- and 200-day all clustered there out of a sloppy descending wedge — "something about Hood I just think is a monster winner." He prefers names that stair-step so he can build into them. His final word: he'd felt ungrounded the last couple of weeks, so touch grass, breathe, and use chop ranges to absorb lessons. "If you survive the chop, you're doing well."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben reminded everyone that he called this "the year of the wall of worry" seven or eight months ago, and Thursday and Friday supplied the worry. He doesn't mind a few names or one sector leading for a stretch; faster, shorter cycles mean more exaggerated moves either way. On the SMH, he bought off the 50-day two weeks earlier and it was back there again. To him it's the same price point, now with a pivot about 15 points below as the line in the sand. On Meta, he'd put risk down at the 50-day, at the bottom of the wicks, and expects some back-and-forth until the moving-average crossover fully aligns — the "golden cross, then a moment of weakness" GP talks about. They were on session 51 of the range, about three calendar months.
He's in Nebius after news that Jensen bought in. His observation is that Jensen investments tend to give a few days of pop, then a retrace that "nobody wants," and he asked whether this time was different. He'd bump his risk up to about 190 and pointed to the 4-week tight around 150 and the 30- and 40-week moving averages. He also showed the Marvell candle from when Jensen called it a trillion-dollar company and noted Nvidia's CoreWeave buy in the high 80s, both later faded. His caution: if you wait too long for an all-clear, you never take the shot. His final thought: being too busy and being bored are both part of the process. Slow down, be present, and touch grass.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said the action was still "trashy," with strength in the mornings and weak closes. Micron was breaking out after tagging the 50% retrace for three days, while Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon lagged — the mega caps had been hiding places, not leaders. If Google, Apple or Satya hinted at slowing capex, he expected the memory names to get smoked: bounce to the 50% retrace, lower highs, then lower. He said pairing them against the mega caps is "a fallacy built on a house of cards." The lower the mega caps go, the more likely memory fails, because stock-based compensation keeps talent at those companies, and if Microsoft falls to the 200s, cuts follow. Micron sold off on earnings with 86% gross margins, and its total addressable market only grows if the mega caps spend. For the QQQs to rise on a day like this, he said, you need parabolic moves — SanDisk up 13.5%, Micron 12.9%, Intel 9%, Dell 6% — and parabolic moves are hard to sustain. Leadership has to come from the leaders.
Breadth was improving, he said, with strength in the RSP and money spreading into names like Cheesecake Factory, Texas Roadhouse and Wingstop. His example of a change in character was Meta: the 20-day crossing over the 50-day was happening above the 200-day for the first time, after earlier crosses in January and April came under it and failed. Broken charts take time to repair, he said, and it takes an expansionary move, not $3 up and $3 down on a $600 stock, to turn the 200-day. His mentor's question from 2013 stuck with him: "Are you buying the breakout when it's under every moving average on the planet?"
On gold, he pointed to one of the biggest RSI divergences on the planet; reclaim 4,100 on the futures and "it's off to the races." He sees gold, silver and copper as multi-decade base breakouts that don't end with one pump. Gold's run from 2,300 to 5,600 is small next to its last breakout from about 300–400 to 2,100, and he expects a relentless "wave three." Silver took 47 years to get back to breakeven in October 2025, and copper has been consolidating above its prior breakout. His Micron example: break out of the dot-com highs, run to about 150, correct to 67, run to 400, then go to 1,255.
He thinks the high-flyers aren't done correcting and that Rocket Lab shows the path. It bounced before tagging the 200-day — front-running, which professionals don't do — rejected the 50-day for two days, and got destroyed. He traded it from 81–82 and got out when it couldn't clear the 50. News-driven pops like Jensen's, which he called "the Cramer effect," are often chances to get out. Nebius going from 300 to the 150s "is not a pullback, that is a correction," usually an ABC, and he thinks Micron is going lower too. He said it's important to build the muscle to short, because the next real bear market will be about shorting rips.
He thinks Netflix is fine, sitting at its 2021 highs and likely to base. He saw a culture shift on the day, with Microsoft no longer dropping $15–20 when SanDisk ripped, and said crypto was turning from apathy to "are you ready to rumble." On Robinhood, he sees a rounding top and thinks it goes lower. He drew resistance from the 65 pivot to the recent weekly gap-down, and said above 95 is good and under 95 not so good. He'd like a double-bottom retest "where everyone gives up," like Microsoft's retest that held on huge volume. He'd also welcome SanDisk and Micron basing in the 400–600 area as healthy. His birthday message: kids are more resilient than we give them credit for, so hug your family. And if you survived by refunding your account, "that's not really surviving."
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