Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:57 August Seasonality After a Choppy July
09:52 Gold Breakout & Copper ($FCX)
14:37 Backfill Buys & the QQQs at 700
19:27 $AMD Earnings: 440, 400 or 515
26:32 SpaceX: Earnings, Lockup & Index Buying
38:52 Space Names: $ASTS, $RKLB & $VOYG
44:15 Bitcoin: Volatility Suppression & the Base
52:17 The Pi Cycle Top
55:28 Chat Charts: $ALAB & $WAT
1:04:03 $DOCN Levels
1:09:42 $PLTR at the 160 Pivot
1:12:34 Memory Earnings: $MU, $WDC & $SNDK
1:17:33 Final Takeaways
Market Hours #198 went out live on Wednesday, August 5, with Ben and Nick — and a guest, Matt from The Art of Trends. GP couldn't make it because of audio issues. The S&P was four days into a rally after a choppy July, AMD was down about 6% the day after earnings, gold had gapped up almost 4%, and SpaceX was coming off its earnings print with a lockup expiration on deck. From there the crew covered Bitcoin's long base, the space names and a run of chat charts before SanDisk and Western Digital reported that night.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
On gold, Nick said it was still below the 200-day, "which maybe not be the greatest," but it was breaking out. The last time they talked about it, you could play it as a double bottom off the engulfing candle at the lows, but it never confirmed through 383–384 and just chopped. On the day, it was popping above both the double bottom and the 50-day, and breaking a long descending trend line that started when it peaked in January. "If metals are your thing, I think today is a really good start," pending a strong close. For metals overall he'd rather be in copper — FCX looks phenomenal to him — though he admitted he's historically a poor commodities trader.
For anyone who missed the pop, he thought the backfill was the opportunity, possibly into Friday morning. His line on the QQQs: as long as they hold 700, he's a happy camper. The 702–704 area was the 50% retracement of the high-to-low, the 38.2% of the latest low-to-high sat at 701 and the 50% of that move at 693. He'd steer toward quality over the speculative names, which were "bouncing, but not really bouncing from anywhere" — though if Bitcoin is bottoming, it could become a risk-on signal for that space again.
On AMD he wanted an open above 495 and didn't get it. His real line in the sand is about 440 (430–440), the high-volume gap candle from May, and his entries are either near 440 or back above 515. It has a rounding-top look with an air pocket down to the 200-day, but with Nvidia confirming its double-bottom breakout on the day, he expected sideways frustration more than a collapse if the market keeps pushing.
On SpaceX, he framed it as mid-range: about 112 inside a 105–130 range. If 105 breaks, he doesn't think 100 holds; the width of the range points to about 80. A sub-100 spike would be "fantastic for long-term holders." If he were buying, he'd take it through 126–127 rather than off a steep trend line, and he'd look to get out around 140–145, ahead of the opening-day print near 146–150. For longer-term holders he suggested tranches — a starter, more near 100, then the mid-60s to mid-70s — as a "DCA, not touching it for a long time" approach. Otherwise it's a watch-and-see with alerts at 100, 105 and 126.
In space, ASTS looks best to him. Rocket Lab "seems a little broken" after busting a rising channel that started in early 2025; it needs to get back above 80, with the 200-day at 78. Both completed ABCD legs down, so a bounce made sense, but if he had to pick one name in the group he'd take VOYG.
On Bitcoin, he pointed to the awesome oscillator and volume: the February low and the June undercut both made new price lows without the volume or oscillator reading to back them, which told you price was likely to reverse. On the chat charts, he had ALAB pushing into the 50% retracement at 372 and called the current area at least a starter entry against the 10- and 20-day, with risk to about 280–285 (the 61.8% is 291 — under that he'd pass). On WAT he said the monthly closing high of 415 is the trigger, with heavy volume building over the last year. On DOCN, 129–130 is the level to trade against because of the high-volume May 5 candle: above 132 is great, above 145–146 even better, and if those pivots reclaim he expects it to gravitate toward the top of the range around 180.
On memory, his order was MU, then WDC, then SanDisk. He's treating MU as a bear trap after it reclaimed the head-and-shoulders neckline around 815–816, but noted the big air pocket down to the 200-day and saw no reason to be in ahead of earnings without an existing position. His closing take: a step in the right direction, with IGV and the cybersecurity names still looking good, and HP looking phenomenal alongside Dell.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben ran the show and set up most of the topics. On gold he's a weekly-chart guy: on the gold futures he wanted the 9-week to overtake both moving averages, and on GLD he wanted to see it get above 395.
On AMD he said he had posted the night before that AMD "may not be a second source story anymore," and then the SpaceX–Nvidia news landed. He still found it hard to imagine one company supplying all the chips data centers need. It had made its move, though, and a pullback to 436 or even 400 to consolidate would make sense to him; the 20-week moving average sat around 437. On SpaceX, he flagged the insider lockup as an overhang, but pointed out that inclusion in the IWM and QQQs brings forced passive buying that could soften the usual flush.
On Bitcoin he pulled up the Pi Cycle Top chart (the 111-day versus two times the 350-day), which has marked every prior cycle top and hasn't triggered this time. His thesis is that each cycle stretches a little longer with a lower peak, he expects new all-time highs eventually, but Bitcoin "needs to retake that 111" first. He said he hasn't sold anything in 2026 and has only been adding small.
On ALAB, he said the monthly is still in an uptrend and the weekly is holding between the 9 and 20 week; he'd use the 9-day around 316 as risk, with the 20-week at 291 below that. On Waters he joked about the $400 price tag — "expensive stays expensive." On DOCN, he didn't like the repeated wicks down to the 9-week and wanted a weekly close back above it before getting excited. Between the memory names, he liked WDC's setup better than SanDisk's because it was above all its daily and weekly averages.
His final picks: Marvell, which he's watching for a re-entry, and Micron, which he just put back on his watch list ahead of the memory reports. He also recommended Mel Robbins' "Let Them" theory.
Matt's setups, levels and trades
Matt opened with seasonality data. Since 1975, when the S&P is up 5–13% year to date, as it was, August has been positive 77% of the time across 13 observations, with an average return of 1.78%, a median of 1.91%, and an average of 2.77% in the positive years. The next big test, in his view, is August OPEX: rallies often run into mid-August, and the risk of a seasonal selloff grows into September OPEX. He said July was tough for him, with lots of starts and stops, and he scraped back to about breakeven. He likes "wrong side of the boat" trades when seasonality doesn't work.
He took some gold after hearing Nick call it a week or two before. His only longer-term concern is the 10-year yield (TNX) breaking out of a long weekly series of lower highs and retesting it; copper also looks good to him. On AMD he'd wait. A contact in the AI space is bullish on AMD's data-center chips and thinks photonics is overhyped. His spots were 440, where it has bounced twice, then about 400, where put support and the six-month moving average line up — "the beautiful spot." Otherwise he wants it above 515, clear of a cluster of moving averages and call resistance at 500.
On SpaceX, put support had re-established at the 100 strike and call resistance had moved up to about 160. He wants to see it hold 100 through the lockup and then hold above 120 to base. A broader sell-down to about $75 would put a lot of IPO buyers in despair and could be a good long-term spot, and 65–75 is roughly half the IPO price. Until then it's a day-trading vehicle: size down, widen the stop. He also noted ASTS is above its dilution-event level.
On Bitcoin, he isn't calling it dead but thinks institutional ownership has suppressed volatility, so his upside expectations are muted. He'd like more basing and a breakout "when nobody's expecting it." A breakdown from here would put about 30,000 in sight. On ALAB he'd keep it short term against 315 and get more aggressive with options above the 50-day, around 360–365, or near the lows around 250. On DOCN — one of his two annual long-term picks along with NBIS — he watches 130, then about 143 where the 50-day comes in, with 165 above. On Palantir he's watching the 160–163 pivot: over 160 is a start and over 170 is more conservative, and he thinks it could change the trend. On the memory earnings he'd wait and see, and wants EWY above 175. His final word: the AI trade isn't dead, but stick with quality — Dell is one, though it has a gap below.
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