Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:32 Nick: The First Fed Move Is the False Move
02:04 Nick: Wait for the Follow-Through Day
03:05 Nick: The 350 to 380 Zone
04:05 GP: Thursday's Washout Day
04:35 GP: Wrong on the Energy Short
07:09 Ben: Energy Still Looks Bullish
08:53 Nick: His Energy Names
11:01 Ben: The Week's Sector Moves
13:34 Nick: Reading the Intraday Patterns
14:05 GP: Bullish Closes and NQ Volume
15:06 Ben: TSMC's Batman
16:39 GP: The March Rally Needed a Fed Pivot
17:10 Ben: Is Inflation Easing?
18:46 GP: The VIX and the 305 Hammer
20:53 Recession and the Job Market
22:25 GP: Who Sells Amazon Down Here?
23:57 GP: Consensus Has Never Been This Consensual
25:32 Holding Through Round Trips
29:38 Netflix as a Bull Market Indicator
32:43 Ben: Polkadot and Bitcoin
37:51 Ben: Bitcoin's Double Top
44:03 Shopify Looks Worse Than Netflix
46:34 Ben: Don't Trade Apple, Own It
50:17 GP: Gold's Sideways Months
55:00 Futures Open and the VIX
57:02 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #23 went out live on Sunday, May 8, with Ben, GP and Nick after a whipsaw Fed week. Nick still expects lower levels, with a 350 to 380 zone on the SPY, while GP said Thursday's washout day means traders should now watch for a follow-through day. The three also covered energy's strength and GP's wrong-way XLE short, Datadog and Bill.com as new leaders, the QQQs' 305 hammer, Amazon, Netflix as a bull market indicator, Bitcoin's double top, Apple and gold.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the first move after the Fed "is typically the false move," and "you just wait for the follow through day like you don't need to be the first one racing in here." "I still think that we're heading lower," but "the longer this correction lasts the bigger and the more of a" monster the next move. "I think those round numbers are kind of a magnet," with "spies anywhere between kind of like that 350 and 380 zone." In energy, he's in OXY, XOM, DVN and a little USO, but "i don't think i'm going to be looking to leg into these until i see if the xle heads into new highs," and "that 88 88 to 91 area" could "pose for some trouble." He watches "are we strong in the morning and selling off in the afternoons or are we weak in the morning and rallying in the afternoons."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said on energy, "i think it was three weeks ago i was like guys it still looks bullish to me," and "that's still 10 more percent upside." Consumer discretionary was "down 2.9 that's largely led by amazon." TSMC is "flashing a big old batman symbol out there." On inflation, "my real world seeing what's happening kind of tells me" it's starting to ease. On Netflix, "if netflix is an indicator what the rest of high growth and tech's going to be that's not so great." In crypto, "i've been scaling into dot now for you know all year long all 2022 long." Bitcoin "looks like a double top blow off breakout breakdown," and "it's very bearish short term," while Ethereum is "almost the same chart." On Apple, he cited Cramer's 2012 call, "don't trade apple own it."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "we had a washout day on thursday 96 downside day," so "what you should be looking for now is not like a breakdown but essentially a follow-through day." The XLE "hit a a monthly volume profile and barely flinched," and "i was wrong on this trade," though "that 91 is going to be the right shoulder." On shorting the XLE, "i'm like not now right it's literally it's busted through resistance in less than a month." Datadog and Bill.com sold off "on incredible earnings," and "these are the ones i'm going to be looking at in terms of long-term kind of investments." Late-day buying "was the second highest contract volume in the in the nqs since the big collapse happened on january 24th." The March rally "required a fed pivot," and "the fed is probably not going to pivot." The VIX hasn't spiked, "so there's an inherent support around this level," and the QQQs printed "that hammer candle" near 305, "the opening of the of the year." AWS "is still growing at 37 or 38 percent," so "i can't imagine someone looking at amazon saying i gotta" liquidate. "I've never seen consensus be so consensual." On Netflix, "i added netflix around 200 i'm down right now but i'm not worried." On gold, "i'm taking this when it takes out that all-time high that 2100 kind of level."
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