Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Live Edition
01:18 GP: The Fed Minutes and the Same News
02:48 GP: Flow, Not Selling
05:53 GP: The Nasdaq Pivot Holds
09:59 Nick's Energy Train
10:30 GP: Zoom's Earnings Follow-Through
13:35 Nick: The Generals Drag the Indexes Down
14:39 Nick: Tesla Under the 10-Day
15:10 Nick: The 360 to 385 Confluence
16:12 Ben Challenges Nick's Thesis
18:52 Nick: Boston Scientific's Base
21:26 GP: Amazon at Its 2018 High
22:26 GP: Netflix Could Double
24:01 Ben: Netflix Isn't a Heavyweight
28:12 The S&P Defends 390
29:13 GP: Tesla at the Bottom of Its Base
31:48 Ben: Bitcoin on the Cliff
33:21 Ben: United Rentals and Costco
39:09 Nick: Slave to the Price Action
40:43 GP: Energy Needs a Flag
44:19 Ben: The Rotation Call
46:21 GP: Stage Four and the Stage Five Rally
46:51 GP: Cloud Names and Zoom's Cash
47:51 Rates, Bonds and Retail
50:55 GP: DocuSign Four Weeks Tight
51:55 Ben: Indexes Over Individual Names
55:35 Nick: Screening With MarketSmith
1:01:20 GP: Hedged for a Long Time
1:02:52 Nvidia Earnings Predictions
1:04:57 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #25 went out live on Wednesday, May 25, on Fed minutes day, with Ben, GP and Nick, who joined a few minutes in. GP said the market keeps selling off on the same news through options flow rather than real selling. Nick turned more bearish, expecting the big names to drag the indexes into the 360 to 385 area on the SPY, and Ben made a contrarian rotation call. The three also covered Zoom's earnings, Netflix and Amazon, Tesla's base, Bitcoin, Costco, energy and Nvidia earnings predictions.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "what's going to drag the indexes down in this next leg is likely going to be the weakness in apple tesla google and amazon." Tesla "is being controlled by the 10-day moving average," which is "a sign of weakness in a you know bare down trending market." He's "looking at basically 295 293 as like our breakout point," with "confluence in this 360 to 385 area" on the SPY. "I think the the cream will rise to the top." Boston Scientific is "sitting right on its four-year" base, and "you kind of want to see you know that 38 hold or even the 33 35." On Tesla, "it could hit that 150 week moving average a simple moving average at 508." "I'm a slave to the price action," and "i got a lot of money at this point tied up in the energy sector." OXY "is coming out of a three-week tight pattern at the highs" in "a base between 50 and" 64. "What i like about market smith" is screening the industry groups. On Nvidia earnings, "i think we could get a bounce up to 200."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "i do not consider netflix as being one of the market heavyweights," because "apple and microsoft and amazon and google and tesla" are the top names. On Boston Scientific, "i look at this chart and i i lean bearish." "If the generals don't hold if the heavyweights don't hold i don't think anything's holding." The S&P "is defending" the 390 area, and if it breaks, "338 looks like a pretty reasonable spot after that." Bitcoin "is living on an edge it is living on the cliff but you know until it breaks it's not broken." On United Rentals, "i wouldn't want to touch it until i saw it" reverse, and "i wouldn't be in a rush to pick some up here at 273." For Costco, "i want to try to get costco somewhere in the threes," and "costco is not a trade it's an investment over time." His call: "the rotation out of health care and out of drugs is going to precipitate their fall off," and "we are not going to make those" lows. "I think consumer discretionary severely oversold." He also leans toward "going in further on indexes or etfs as opposed to taking capital that's going to take so long in the individual name to grow."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "the fed minutes are saying exactly what everyone knows," and "it's not actual selling it's the flow," with traders who "sell a thousand calls right at the resistance level." The Nasdaq "continues to hold that pivot" from November 2020. Zoom "hasn't seen a high since november 6 2020," but "it didn't drop 40 on earnings." Amazon's "high in 2018 was 2052.50," the same price it hit this week. "Netflix is most likely going to double from here 340 360 in the next couple of months." Tesla is "very close to the bottom of the base 500 seems like the logical point." "We've been negative gamma since january." Energy "needs to consolidate it needs to build for higher." "I think this is a stage four" correction, ahead of "our stage five rally." Zoom's "market cap is equivalent to something that they'll generate in free cash flow over the next 10 years." DocuSign is "four weeks tight." "People have been hedged for a really long time which is why also you don't see the panic."
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