Chapters
00:00 Intro: The Six-Month Anniversary Show
01:09 Welcome Back, Cookie_M
02:42 Cookie_M: Bear Markets Are Exhausting
05:13 Cookie_M: Be Selective
07:46 Nick: A-Plus Trades and Symmetry
11:21 Nick: The 0.382 and the Fed
14:22 Nick: What Capitulation Means
19:00 Cookie_M: A Managed Breakdown
22:35 GP: Everyone Has Been Hedged Since November
26:38 GP: Flow Dictating Price
27:38 GP: Amazon and the 13-Year Question
29:42 Nick: The 340 to 350 Magnet on the SPY
30:46 Nick: Faster Cycles and the Drugs
32:18 GP: The Nasdaq's 261.8 Extension
34:52 Cookie_M: Targets of 220 and 2900
36:58 Cookie_M: The Yearly Nine MA
41:01 Where Is There Safety?
43:35 GP: Short-Term Trading and Call Calendars
45:37 China: KWEB, Alibaba and Nio
53:17 GP: Energy's Blow-Off Top
56:58 GP: The 260 to 270 Volume Zone
58:33 Cookie_M: Mark the Pivots, Follow the Trend
1:02:37 GP: The Nasdaq Composite's Yearly Pivot
1:05:17 Six Months In: Wrap-Up
Market Hours #28 went out live on Tuesday, June 14, as the six-month anniversary show, with guest Cookie_M joining Ben, Nick and GP ahead of the Fed. Cookie_M called this a managed breakdown rather than a panic and set targets of 220 on the QQQs and about 2900 on the S&P. GP said everyone has been hedged since November, and Nick laid out what real capitulation would look like. The four also covered flow-driven price action, Amazon's 13-year question, the Nasdaq's long-term extensions, China and energy's blow-off top.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said "when the markets are are bearish they're much harder to trade it's exhausting." "We've been practicing quite a bit over the last couple of months is to be a lot more selective," and "we try not to over trade during those hard periods." Compared with the COVID crash, this time the VIX comes in waves, "going up and down and up and down," and "this could go on a long time." It's a "managed breakdown just like the move up lasted 10 years." "I'm looking for about 220 in the QQQs and 290 to 300 in" the SPY, or 2,900 to 3,000 on the S&P. On the yearly chart, "it's always found support at that 9ma," which gives "a target which is very close to what we mentioned earlier which is about that 230 level," while on the S&P the yearly nine sits at 314. "Where we turned over a week ago is because we rejected the 9ma," and "this is not panic." "Don't look for outliers don't cherry-pick," and "if the market is bearish then go with a bearish etf." On China, KWEB's move "is identical to other consolidations," so "it's worth waiting three months for k web." "Mark up those weekly and monthly pivots," and "my guess is by q1 q2 2023 we'll be having a different conversation."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "i'm a purely technical guy," and "i kind of fall more into the category of a trend trader." He has learned to take "the a plus trades," because "that's where i give most of my money back is in the in periods where i either get overly aggressive." "I look for a lot of symmetry," with "the cd leg" mirroring "the a b leg." "If we're in a a bullish run and we hold that 0.382 like that's a significant sign of strength." On the Fed, "typically that that first move or that first direction is kind of the false move," and "i'm more or less in cash the only position that i even have on right now is the uso" and SQQQ. "Capitulation triggers to me when the lows of that range get taken out," and "i wouldn't consider capitulation until the low gets taken out." Once the SPY hits 340 to 350, "every single person's going to come out and say" it's headed to the COVID lows. "I think it's going to be the drugs the ibb," and "cycles are becoming quicker and shorter."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "of all the times we could have started doing these podcasts we choose maybe the worst six months of the market in the last two years." "I haven't done a lot of trades basically all of 2022." He asked the panel "where is there safety other than cash."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "people have been hedged since november as the free money fed has has told you that they're not going to be free money," so "you can't get these violent move downs." "Everything that's been forecasted is happening." "I see a lot of the flow dictating the price which is something we haven't seen in all in a long time." On Amazon, "are you ready to hold for 13 years," and "at some point in time in the next five to ten years amazon will start introducing a dividend." On the Nasdaq, the 261.8 extension was lost, and "you can probably see nasdaq at five five and a half maybe six thousand." He hopes the QQQs reclaim the 297.45 pivot. "Short-term trading is the way to go," and "you can also do call calendars." Energy is "pushing towards blow off tops," and the XLE has "room to about 91 92." "This 260 to 70 zone is kind of the last like volume support areas," and "if we do break this zone it's a much much bigger move down." On the Nasdaq composite, a break would mean "a retest of the breakout from the dot-com crisis it's the 21-year moving average."
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