Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Labor Day Edition
00:34 Ben: Talk Me Off the Ledge
02:08 GP: Bitcoin Isn't Breaking Down
05:15 GP: Three Weeks Up, Three Weeks Down
08:19 Ben: Bitcoin's Pivots and Retests
10:20 GP: Candles Need a Follow-Through
12:25 GP: The 21-Week Moving Average
15:03 GP: Netflix Bottomed First
16:36 GP: Watching the Options Flow
19:09 GP: A Market Full of Uncertainty
20:42 Ben: What if It Doesn't Change?
24:20 GP: Most Flow Services Are Garbage
26:54 Weekly Options and Leveraged Single-Stock ETFs
30:31 Bitcoin Pops
33:09 The QQQs' Monthly Candle
34:11 GP: Where He Was Wrong
36:13 Ben: The 9 Crosses the 21
38:46 Caution on the Tape
39:48 Ben: Mike Wilson's Lower Low
43:22 An Inflection Point
47:01 The 50-Month Moving Average
48:32 Ben: Down Friday, Down Monday
53:43 Ben: September to Thanksgiving
55:49 Ben: Trimming Apple and Microsoft
56:19 GP: Sticky Inflation
56:49 GP: The Amazon and Microsoft Comparison
1:02:35 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #37 went out live on Labor Day Monday, September 5, with Ben and GP. Nick was out. Ben opened bearish and asked GP to talk him off the ledge. GP pointed to Bitcoin and Netflix refusing to break down, lighter volume on the selloff and a cluster of support levels. The two also covered the options flow driving intraday turns, weekly options and leveraged single-stock ETFs, the QQQs' monthly candle, Mike Wilson's lower-low call, a down-Friday, down-Monday signal and GP's Amazon and Microsoft comparison.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "there's just not a lot that i like out there right now," so "talk me off the ledge." Bitcoin "hasn't broken that like 18 5 pivot area yet," and "we're either on the third or the fourth test of potentially breaking down." "Price action is what price action is and it's not moving up." "We can't be bullish until we're above the 21." "A pop above twenty thousand one hundred and a sustained of that on the four hour" could start a reversal. On the QQQs, "what i really don't like is we didn't have this until the finish of august and that was that nine crossing over the twenty one." "Right now we're working on an outside monthly candle," and "we broke the yearly pivot like they didn't even exist." "Caution would be the way i would describe the way i'm looking at the tape." Mike Wilson's case is "still another 14 down to come in contact with the trend line of the channel." On the Dow's down-Friday, down-Monday signal, "nine of the last 10 proceeded in you know telling you that you were going lower." After Labor Day, "you have an 11-week non-stop grind until you get to the thanksgiving holiday." "I lightened up on some apple and some microsoft."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "to see the market risking off but bitcoin holding" is "encouraging ultimately," since he treats it as a risk-on, risk-off asset. Over the last six weeks, "the three weeks up had more volume than the three weeks down." "We're at the yearly pivot we're at a 61.8 of of this current up move we are at a 50 retracement of the 2020 to 2022 move up." "All those candles are really important if the next following candle is a follow-through candle." On the 21-week moving average, "these high prices like the 44 000 the 46 000" are "going to start falling off." "Netflix bottomed one month before the market bottom right may 12 versus june 16." He watched sellers come in "selling 500 block 600 block 700 block calls," and "when the stock market stops being the option market again then then we can see a bit more sustained stuff." Energy "is going up yet oil can't catch proper bid," and "bonds are breaking down." "These services that give you options flow and stuff like that they're mostly garbage." Leveraged single-stock ETFs are predatory because "they're going to decay over time." "I was expecting like the 314 to 3 18 range to hold off the 334 level," but it came "into the lower support area." "Inflation is going to be sticky." On Amazon versus Microsoft in 2000, "the greatest allocator of this bull market jeff bezos said no i've had enough," but "i like amazon here actually because it's relatively cheap in my opinion compared to its peers."
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