Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:37 Ben: Bearish Bags for December
02:43 GP: Bad News Is Getting Bought
05:23 Oil and the XLE Break Down
08:00 GP: Energy Topped, Tech Bottomed
12:08 Nick: Valero and the XLE's 200-Day
14:51 GP: The XLE's 81 Level
17:26 GP: Netflix's Moving Averages
18:59 Nvidia, Apple and Biotech
20:34 Home Depot, Lowe's and Costco
21:41 GP: MongoDB and Holding Technical Levels
23:47 Celsius and Goldman Sachs
25:23 GP: Gold Chops Until All-Time Highs
28:31 Ben: Chinese Stocks
31:34 GP: Free-Money Stocks
33:05 GP: Roblox
34:06 Long-Term Ideas
37:14 Cybersecurity
39:48 Redfin
41:52 GP: Junk Bonds
42:54 CPI, the Fed and Quad Witching
45:28 Ben: Bitcoin's Wedge
48:39 Ethereum and Tesla
51:43 GP: The Dollar's Trend Has Changed
54:21 Square, Roku and Shopify
55:52 GP: The Mega Caps
56:58 Nick: Apple Is His Favorite Short Setup
58:30 GP: Apple's One-Penny Higher Low
59:30 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #47 went out live on Sunday, December 11, with Ben, Nick and GP, ahead of a week with CPI, the Fed and quad witching. Ben came in as bearish bags for December. GP said bad news is getting bought and the QQQs are holding their range, and Nick argued the XLE's pullback to the 200-day doesn't look that bad. The hosts also covered Netflix, Goldman Sachs, gold, Chinese stocks, long-term ideas, Bitcoin, the dollar and Nick's Apple short setup.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said of the XLE, "I think it looks like we're pulling into the 200" day, and "this could still easily pull back to 79." "I do think that 200-day holds," since "we're basically pulling back to right where it broke out from basically back in October." He has "positions and Trail stops," but "I'm not in the mood to catch a falling knife." "I still kind of like the monthly," which is "still making higher higher lows on the monthly since basically 2020." On China, "I'm just gonna sit on my hands." "Five to ten years I think is my my idea of long term." "I think cyber security is probably someplace that you want to have some money." On Redfin, "you could probably use this level but yeah I'm not crazy about that chart." "Apple's probably my favorite short setup," with "140-ish" as "a pivot to watch." "If not I'd be short below that," going after the gap fill at 138.50, and "maybe like into it below 135."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "it's bearish bags for the entire month of December," because "we're totally failing this trend line." On Chinese stocks, "this is the highest or the closest the k-web has been to the weekly 50 since it failed way back in June 21," and "it looks like it's a new uptrend." "For a trade to me like it might look pretty good." Alibaba bounced off a triple bottom low, "JD's back in almost ready to get back into the 60s," and "PDD looks great," but "it's hard for me to trust anything in that market." On Bitcoin, "we're basically playing in this range between where we lost the breakout to all-time highs in 2017," and "we got this little wedge." "I might have convinced myself that I like ethereum more than Bitcoin." "Last week I was I was slightly less bullish bags... now I'm back to bearish bags."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "I think bad news is getting bought," pointing to October 13, when hot CPI data sold off and "then we immediately got bought up." The QQQs "have not closed below the the first hour of the CPI pop" in 21 days, and "we are exactly at the same price in the QQQs that we were in November of 2020." "You have energy topped out in June Tech bottomed in June," and "this is the rotation that I I talked about before." For the XLE, "the 81 level has to" hold, as "that's the nine month SMA," and "I would want to see not just one day of holding." Netflix "still closed green" on Friday while the market was red, and "I personally think that Netflix could go sideways to like the April earnings." MongoDB's weekly "is the highest volume candle in its history ever," and "a lot of things are holding technical levels that were not holding most of this year." Goldman Sachs had a "breakout back test of the breakout holds the nine weekly SMA."
"My gold assessment is it chops people to bits so I'll buy I'll buy the all-time high." "We are no longer in a free money market," and names like Beyond and Carvana "they're all dependent on free money." Roblox is "a long-term hold for me," and "I did put on some January calls on Friday." "My personal opinion is we're in regime shift," and "what I'm looking for is all the overvalued IPOs that have gotten destroyed or have gone sideways." "I think Robin Hood is is a long-term hold for me." Junk bonds, JNK, "to me right now looks pretty good," and "it's holding the levels." On the dollar, "this turn here has... completely changed that character," and "I think ultimate trajectory is still further down." Shopify is "basing in a place where based before," while "Google looks weak Amazon looks weak" and "Tesla is still under the 200 week." Apple "still made a higher Low by one penny," and "that's the strength."
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