Chapters
00:00 Intro: Still Bulled Up
00:33 Nick: Holding Up in Energy
02:06 GP: Why Cut Production?
04:10 Ben: Playing Devil's Advocate on Oil
07:17 Nick: Peel Some Off, Keep Dry Powder
09:52 GP: Natural Gas and the Narratives
13:01 Ben: Room for a Pullback
15:04 GP: Reclaiming the Jackson Hole High
17:41 The Head and Shoulders Everyone Sees
19:46 Nick: The QQQs Broke the Channel
20:47 Is This 2020 All Over Again?
23:25 GP: Oxy and the Amazon Analog
26:30 GP: The 2018 Production Cut
28:02 Nick: The Trend Has Changed
30:35 GP: The QQQs to 350
32:08 GP: The Dollar Rolls Over
33:10 Cathie's Names
35:15 GP: Tesla's Deliveries
38:51 AI and the Mega Caps
43:33 GP: Buy the Major Dips
45:09 Bitcoin and Coinbase
47:14 GP: Alibaba to 180
52:35 Netflix Into Earnings
54:36 GFS, Intel and Cisco
55:42 Nick: Individual Names Over Indexes
57:14 Ben: Everyone Wants Risk-Free 5%
58:45 Redfin vs. Zillow
1:00:48 GP: Volume in Sideways Markets
1:01:50 Ben: Boeing Proved Him Wrong
1:02:24 Costco
1:04:28 Nick: Big Caps, Tesla and Biotech
1:06:34 GP: Gilead and First Solar's Base
1:08:07 GP: The XLF's Base Retest
1:08:37 Ben: PacWest and Schwab
1:09:40 GP: First Citizens
1:13:48 GP: JPMorgan's Volume
1:15:25 GP: No Agenda Here
1:18:32 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #62 went out live on Sunday, April 2, with Ben, GP and Nick, who joined from vacation and left before the end. GP argued that OPEC's production cut signals weaker demand, and Ben played devil's advocate on oil. Nick said the QQQs broke their channel and the trend has changed. GP mapped the QQQs to 350, then covered Tesla's deliveries, Alibaba's road to 180, and First Citizens. Ben shared his PacWest and Schwab buys.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said that on the XLE, "it's been holding that kind of 70... the mid 70s," and "if it went back to all-time highs and took out highs I think it would be insanely bullish for the energy sector." For commodities, "if you're gonna buy it buy it... buy the breakout." "I do think oxy was holding up pretty well," while Hess "was one that I really didn't like at all when it broke that trend line." "If you're long especially equities I think it would be... to peel some off and keep some dry powder." "I didn't peel anything off on Friday which I probably should have but I have a lot of Trail stops," and "I'm looking to add more on weakness than I am on continued strength." The QQQs "broke this long... channel that we've been in since again you know 2021," and "I think we're heading back to like 370 400." "I do think that we're in... for a few weeks of volatility here." "I'm in the camp that the trend has completely changed," even though "I was the one all year long saying the trend the trend the trend." "You're pretty clean up until 3 40 after this." "I don't think that this is going to be the type of Market where people are going to want to be involved in the ETFs," but rather "in individual names." Tesla is "my other favorite," and "217 is my next trigger." "I like all the big caps." "I don't like the xbi," but "the IBB looks pretty good," and "vrtx looks sweet."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "I'm not an oil bull but just like I like to do Playing devil's advocate here." "We're coming in to summertime when demand goes higher." "A couple week rally in oil wouldn't be the most Preposterous thing in the world to happen." On the QQQs, "we've had a... run for the past month," and "settling in closer to 310 305" would be less of a stretch than going straight to all-time highs. "I've got a lot of inquiries from friends on how they can make risk-free money," and "this is probably a great time to take your money and buy some stocks." On Boeing, "what I still don't like but has proved me wrong is Boeing," which had "a seven and a half percent week." In a rising market, he said, even a weak stock can go higher. "I went heavy on pack W Thursday night in the aftermarket session," and "I bought a... nice little Hefty weight of Schwab." On PacWest, "I did it for the Divi I'm not gonna lie," and "at under 10 it's... a fairly great buy." On Schwab, "if it can hold 52," and "Schwab has finally become as cheap as Morgan Stanley." "It wasn't about the dividend it was like I think there's more upside."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "reflexive rallies are part of a distribution model." "You cut production because you don't have enough demand," and "oil has been in a downtrend for over 12 months and it's going to need a lot more than just some production cuts." Natural gas "only lost 80 percent of its value" since the winter warnings, and "I have my opinions but they need to be backed by charts for me." "Charts number one everything else can come number two." The QQQs reclaimed the Jackson Hole high, after "every Friday was red in that cycle." "It's constructive and if you can't see that it's constructive here... there's not much I can do for you." "Please pick up a technical analysis book," because "head and shoulders are topping patterns." He shared an analog where Amazon "lost 60 percent in six weeks" after its trend-line retest, and he sees Oxy "back up to that 65 66 level" before more distribution. After the 2018 production cut, "you had that initial reflexive rally right two days and then what happened... it dropped." "Over the next three maybe four weeks we grind to about 350" on the QQQs, then "sell into... the three 27 to 334 range." The dollar is "still rolling over." On Tesla, "I've owned Tesla stock since 2014," and "they just delivered 36 growth." "I had some Longs going into the delivery numbers via Tesla and... tsll and I took it off on Friday," because "if you have strength and it doesn't take out a pivot then it's time to kind of be cautious." He's hoping for "a retest of like that... Gap that 195 196 level."
On AI, "this seems very similar to like the tech boom," and "don't sleep on the mega caps." "You should be looking for major dips to buy." On Coinbase, "there will be a week where coin doubles in one week." On Alibaba, "the trades I put on were for September and I haven't touched them yet," and "I personally think this is on a road to 180," with a "pit stop" around 150. On Netflix, "I don't think it's earnings that's gonna break it out," but "closer to like first or second... of May." "When we are in these sideways chop markets your Mas are not as reliable," so he watches volume and horizontal pivots. On the XBI, "I think you're gonna be really sorely disappointed with that opinion of xbi by the end of April." With First Solar, "there's 230 percent I left on the table." The XLF has a "13-year base breakout" that it has "retested once and twice and three times." First Citizens buying SVB "is going to be one of the biggest thieveries in... the banking." On JPMorgan, "the volume screamed at you on this date," and "what's one of the most powerful moves is a failed Head and Shoulder."
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