When, Not If: $RIVN, $RBLX & $W | Market Hours #75

Chapters

  • 00:00 Intro

  • 01:36 GP: Candles Without Context

  • 04:42 GP: The IPO Cycle, Roblox and Uber

  • 06:46 Nick: Uber Near 40

  • 07:47 GP: Roblox Is a When, Not an If

  • 08:48 Nick: Roblox's Defined Risk

  • 10:52 Ben: Rivian's Volume

  • 11:53 GP: Rivian Like Early Tesla

  • 15:00 GP: Wayfair's Imminent Breakout

  • 16:32 Ben: Asana

  • 18:40 Nick: ServiceNow and Super Micro

  • 21:17 GP: Palantir's Sell Candle

  • 22:50 Ben: Google Into Earnings

  • 23:51 GP: Google's Shakeout

  • 25:22 Ben: Doubling Up Google Calls

  • 26:54 Nick: Shift4 Payments

  • 28:30 GP: Toast Over Shift4

  • 31:08 Adobe

  • 33:10 GP: XLE Distribution

  • 35:18 Nick: XLE Back to 87.5

  • 37:18 84 or 75 First?

  • 39:22 Ben: Ford vs. Rivian

  • 41:22 Nick: Ford to the Mid-20s

  • 42:24 GP: Ford's Lower High

  • 44:30 Nick: Coinbase and the Crypto Names

  • 45:01 GP: Coinbase LEAPS

  • 46:36 Ben: Coinbase and Robinhood Calls

  • 48:11 GP: Robinhood and ARK

  • 49:14 Teladoc

  • 50:17 GP: IWM and the OIH Names

  • 54:00 Yield Plays

  • 55:04 Ben: Cloudflare

  • 57:09 Nick: Snowflake

  • 57:41 GP: Snowflake Short Against 184

  • 1:01:21 Nick: Paycom

  • 1:02:21 GP: Netflix and GitLab

  • 1:05:25 Ben: Twilio, Freshworks and the IGV

  • 1:06:57 Wrap-Up

Market Hours #75 went out live on Monday night, July 10, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP warned against reading too much into one candle and called Roblox "a when not if." Ben is up about 90% on Rivian in under a month, and GP likes Wayfair for an imminent breakout. The hosts debated Google's shakeout, Shift4 against Toast, the XLE and Ford, then went through Coinbase, Robinhood and the oil-service names before closing on software setups like GitLab and the IGV.

Nick's setups, levels and trades

Nick said he hasn't gotten into Uber yet: "I'm hoping to grab some near 40 if I if I get the opportunity," and "37 to 34 would be even a bigger gift." "I like how tight Roblox is getting here," and "your risk is... clearly definable." "If you really want you could just give it the 200 day." "I think some of the expensive names are... starting to shape up again like I like now a lot." On Super Micro, "I got shaken out under the 50-day back in April." On Shift4, "on The Daily you buy the breakout over 69 if you're not already long," with risk "like I don't know 62 and a half." He'd look "to get long again on a breakout over like 70... 76 77." On the XLE, "if we take out that 82... it's likely that we're heading back to that next pivot High kind of around basically 87.5 to 88," and he picked 84 before 75.

On Ford, "I think it's going to like mid-20s," and "the 20 Gap fills I think can ultimately act as a magnet," though he'd rather have his money elsewhere. "I like coin I like mister I like Riot Mara," and "square is also starting to shape up even more." On Snowflake, "it's just in a kind of a difficult range for me right now I got chopped out of it." "You could assume that price is gonna head back to like the 130s." He completely missed Paycom's breakout: "that 329 was kind of the trigger that I was... waiting for."

Ben's setups, levels and trades

Ben is up big on Rivian: "in basically less than a month of being in it I'm up like 90," and "I don't really have a good reason to sell." "Normally I... get out half when I'm up 100 percent." On Asana, "I'm in in there like swimwear," and "we got a false breakdown right here and... a bullish engulfing coming off of that." He's "talking my book." "I'm on Google now," and he thinks "we might be in the wash for 14 more days" before earnings. "I would probably buy more if it came into that one" ten. He played some Google calls last week and "got out of more than half of them with around 25 percent." He "just doubled them up today because if it's the ShakeOut then it's probably going to pop," with "a pretty easy stop out for me" around 114 to 115.

He has "seen toast popping up everywhere literally everywhere here in Atlanta." Ford "used to be a a nice holding for me and I got out," and "I prefer rivian." For Ford, "I would like for it to get up to this area like 1650ish and breakthrough." He has been overweight Coinbase, so he "pulled some out in the 70s," "but still very long." He bought "100 calls for next week as well today." On Robinhood, "cashed out my calls from last week... more like 150 percent." It "just broke out of the wedge," and "above 1276 it's... got a lot of legs under it." "I've liked net for a long time," and "it needs to break above this like 70 77 area." "I kind of like twilio," and Freshworks "fits with my Asana and rivian names." Salesforce "got me looking at the igv," and "it looks tight Nick."

GP's setups, levels and trades

GP said a Friday close "without closing even below the prior candle is not your gravestone doji that you think it's going to be." "This is what a non-free money stock market looks like," and "breakouts aren't v-shapes." New IPOs run on "a few year cycle," and "Uber is starting to separate itself from Lyft." On Roblox, "to me it's a it's a when not if." On Rivian, the move is "probably higher closer to that 60 area." When Tesla had its first major volume breakout, it went "from 2.76 to 12.75." "If you were a Tesla shareholder a long time Tesla shareholder rivian should have been your hedge." His favorite setup without a position is Wayfair: "I love when the nine crosses over the 50 on the weekly." "It's going to be a quick and easy move to 108 110 from here," but "I rather wait for the trigger." On Palantir, "I tend to just stay away from these when... these candles appear." Monday "felt like the ShakeOut in Google." It "got to 116 14 and stopped and turned," and the stock is "a falling wedge into the supply Zone from April to August of 2022."

He wouldn't be long Shift4: "there's so much that looks better than this," and "I personally like toast a lot better than four." The XLE is "sideways," and "I see... quite a few of distribution bars." He picked 75 before 84. On Ford, "I think it was a mean reversion move and it's probably gonna fail in this area under 16 64." Coinbase "closed two cents above prior weeks high," and "it's something that I'm holding January 2025 leaps on," which are "up like 60 or 70 percent already." On Robinhood, the "chart has good Juju behind it." ARK was "up nearly four percent while Tesla's down two percent." He thinks the IWM is "absolutely" getting ready to rip. "My stance has always been that it's going to be the oih not XLE," with Transocean and SLB looking good. On Snowflake, "my first take is I don't want to be involved here and if I was I'd be looking to short against 184." He likes Coinbase and GitLab: "I like when a chart runs and then catches its breath lets those moving averages come back together and it's ready to do it all over again." And he says Netflix is "going directly to 500."

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This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.

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