Chapters
00:02 Intro: Seven Months Into the Year
00:34 Nick: Stalk Aggressively
01:40 GP: Earnings Week for Apple, Amazon and AMD
05:20 GP: Tesla's Reaccumulation
06:22 Ben: Lisa Su and Elon's Chips
07:23 GP: The SMH and Breadth Expansion
09:02 GP: Covering the XLE Short
10:07 Ben: The 87 Weekly Close
11:37 Ben: Don't Overstay Your Welcome
12:38 GP: OIH Over the XLE
15:47 Apple Into Earnings
18:21 Microsoft and Google, Apple and Amazon
20:25 Nick: Amazon's Mid-140s
21:25 GP: Amazon Looks the Strongest
24:30 Nick: Never Sell at Break-Even
27:35 GP: Selling Some Before Earnings
30:40 Nick: Palantir, Samsara and UiPath
33:47 GP: Shopify and Marvell
35:19 AMD and MongoDB
37:29 Nick: What Is a Stage Two Breakout?
41:08 GP: Shopify's 78 to 80 Breakout
44:46 GP: Tesla and Square
46:20 Nick: Square Above 92
47:53 DoorDash, Uber and the Cathie Names
48:58 Why Sell Shopify Into 100?
52:01 PayPal Versus Square
55:33 Ben: Asana
57:36 Ben: Watching Tesla This Week
58:07 Nick: Goldman, JPMorgan, Datadog and Arista
1:00:08 GP: Coinbase, Home Depot, FedEx and More
1:03:48 Ben: Sell in Mid-July and Go Away?
1:05:23 Pacific Biosciences
1:05:55 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #78 went out live on Monday evening, July 31, with Ben, Nick and GP, heading into earnings from Apple, Amazon and AMD. GP explained why the bricks of a bull market keep being laid as breadth expands. The hosts argued over whether Amazon or Apple looks stronger and whether to sell at break-even. Nick explained a Weinstein stage two breakout, and GP and Nick worked through Shopify's breakout levels. They finished with a long list of charts they like, from Square and Asana to FedEx and FICO.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the indexes "look like they're kind of pushing into an area where I think we might see some a little bit more a little longer rest period" near all-time highs. "There's so much stuff that looks good I mean you should be you should either be in trades or in positions or you know stalking aggressively." On Amazon, "I could see it push into like the mid 140s and at finding a lot of trouble right there." He'd never sell at break-even after holding through a drawdown, since "you're coming at the trade from an from like an emotionally charged place," and "you probably should be buying more at that break-even point." "I think that the most of the sellers have been completely blown out." Palantir, Samsara and UiPath "all look fantastic to me," and "they're already starting their... stage two breakout." Samsara and UiPath both went three weeks tight.
He explained the stage two breakout "from like largely Stan Weinstein." Stage one is a long horizontal base with a flat 30-week moving average, and stage two starts when price takes out the high and the 30-week curls up. "I would argue that shop went stage two when it broke above 55," and "I'll definitely be selling my shop... on a move into 100." On Square, he wouldn't consider stage two "technically starting Until It Breaks through 92." He's long and "added to it a little bit to it today," and "I don't think PayPal looks nearly as good as Square." He's watching "Goldman and JP Morgan along with clack and lrcx." "Data dog I think looks amazing," and Arista held its gap low and 200-day before ripping into all-time highs after hours. Wayfair had "a... pretty tight kind of Channel up there between 74 and... 68 69."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "the pivot was... 87 and it's sitting there at 87.48 right now," and "a weekly close above 87 I would consider that favoring the Bulls." He might buy puts on the XLE if it breaks below 87. "I worked out a another nice day trade this morning on QQQ puts off you know the first 15 minutes," and "overstaying one's welcome can be a dangerous path" with this much economic news and earnings ahead. With Elon saying he'd buy all the Nvidia chips, a strong AMD report "would be good for Tesla's stock" and "for Tech in general." He's been "pounding my fist on the table" on Asana: "I think this looks like it is ready to just rip." This week, "I am really watching Tesla I will be looking for trading positions in Tesla maybe as soon as tomorrow," and "I think AMD can be a catalyst for Tesla." He asked whether the old sell-in-May axiom has become "sell in mid-July," when everything he sees points to shallow pullbacks.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that if AMD "guides much higher like Nvidia did in May... Nvidia goes nuts." Nvidia's monthly high is 480.88. Amazon "reclaimed the 50-month moving average," near 130, for back-to-back months, and if earnings are good "you have the potential to break out." On Tesla, "based on how much volume has come in at the lows here after a Beatdown of 75 or 80 percent," there's "an insane amount of reaccumulation." The SMH is at all-time-high monthly levels with an MACD cross, so "the components of SMH should start to break out." "The bricks of the building have been have been laid," and Roku and Square are perking up as breadth expands into growth names. He covered his XLE short and is waiting for another chance, since "there's so many better plays out there." Exxon and Chevron are still under their 200-day moving averages, and "if you want to be long energy... you're long oih names," like SLB and RIG.
On Amazon, "Amazon actually looks the strongest in this point." It has a three-week tight on the rising 50-week, and "chart says that it probably takes out that 146 and it heads to 158." With a breakeven near 135, he would take some off ahead of earnings but not the whole position. "I would think about taking profits and some names that I've run already 100 200 percent and leaving some ammo to buy lower." On Shopify, "to me the breakout is 78.80," and "I would imagine it's going to struggle around 113." He bought Shopify as low as about 30 as a long-term holding, so he isn't selling at 100. On Tesla, "there is no confirmation of the earnings sell-off," and taking out last week's high at 272.90 sends it higher. He holds Square shares as a frustrated shareholder, though he notes the monster capitulation volume. PayPal's level is 76.38. He likes Coinbase, Home Depot, Lowe's, FedEx "busting through that pivot" at 267, MongoDB, Ross Stores, Costco and FICO.
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