Chapters
00:00 Intro: GP's Back in the States
00:30 GP: Tesla at the 61.8% Retracement
02:03 GP: FOMC & the QT Taper
04:39 Ben: Positioned for a Big Week
06:13 GP: Rivian's Back Test
08:18 GP: Everything Moves After the Shakeout
09:52 Moving After Earnings & Netflix
11:23 Ben: Coinbase & Path
11:53 GP: Disney Over 92
12:56 GP: Rotation Into Small Caps
13:58 GP: IWM Holds 191.23
15:29 GP: Mid- and Small-Cap Leaders
17:03 Plug Power
19:38 First Solar & Rate Cuts
20:10 Q1 Picks Check-In
20:42 GP: Breakouts Are Being Rewarded
24:19 GP: Why Bottom Fish?
27:27 ARK's Top Holdings
31:03 GP: XLF's 13-Year Base
36:51 Viewer Chart Requests
42:48 Ben: Altcoin Season
49:31 Ben: Mrs. Bags Likes Walmart
50:34 GlobalFoundries, Nutanix & Costco
55:51 GP: Rocket Companies
57:22 More Charts & Wrap-Up
Market Hours #101 went out live on Monday evening, January 29, with Ben and GP, back together after two weeks off, while Nick was with his family on the slopes. GP said he likes Tesla better now at its 61.8% retracement. He expects FOMC to lay out a rate-cut cycle and is watching small caps after a late-day QT headline sparked an IWM breakout. The hosts covered shakeout candles, Rivian, Disney, XLF's 13-year base, the Q1 picks, crypto's altcoin setups and a long run of viewer charts.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said this week packs in big earnings, FOMC, nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims. "It sounds like a great opportunity," but he's already well invested: "I'm already in the positions I like. I don't need to trade to prepare for this." "It's a comforting position to be in when you have your positions on ahead." He's been telling his group all week that he likes Coinbase a lot, and he pointed to GP's Path chart. On Plug Power's big volume, he said some of the weaker names can offer trading opportunities. If it gets above the $4 range, "there might be some more squeeze in that." When bank failures make headlines, Mom and Pop "tighten up the purse strings a little bit."
He's pumped for crypto: "I think it's getting ready to be altcoin season." Ethereum looks good, Litecoin doesn't, and "Chainlink is going to be a monster break when it breaks." Solana looks very similar, and "Chainlink's probably my favorite right now." Stellar (XLM) is "more of the financials play," so it should be part of it if XLF breaks out. For the long term, "if it's not Bitcoin or Ethereum I don't want to hold it forever," though he does like Chainlink and Solana longer term. Mrs. Bags is "really impressed with what Walmart has been doing in stores and online," but he's "a Target loyalist." His Q1 long, Freshworks, called at 20.53, is up roughly 12%.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP likes Tesla better now, "right at the 61.8 retracement," where holding would make a higher low. "If you're bullish longer term why wouldn't you like it at 180 to 190 as opposed to 250, 240, 230, 220." It's holding but not accelerating, and he thinks FOMC "is going to be a really good thing for Tesla as well as a lot of small caps." The 3 PM move came on talk of 760 billion instead of 815 billion, which to him implies QT "is slowing down if not being phased out." He thinks the Fed will lay out a rate-cut cycle, possibly starting in May if inflation readings stay low. "Everything's a reason to sell," he said of the dot plot and CTA narratives.
He's long Rivian, which fell from 22 to 15 with no real base under its run from 14 to about 28. He re-entered through an options play on Friday as it retested the base, leaving his shares untouched. "Everything seems to move after the shakeout candle," as with SMCI before its guidance raise, PayPal and Roku. Things are moving after earnings, not into them. Disney "is over 92," his called-out pivot, and he's long. He's also long Square from above 100 and is waiting for that kind of move there. He sees rotation into small and mid caps, with MDY looking even better. IWM traded 1 million shares on the 3 PM breakout, double any other bar that day. It closed the week at 192.43 above 191.23, the January 24, 2022 capitulation buy zone, which is "inherently different behavior."
In the mid and small caps, he pointed to Path, Unity, Upstart, Roblox and Cloudflare, and "SentinelOne looks amazing." Plug Power has "a history going back to 2000 of lower highs," so "if you want to be long be long but I would probably keep tight stops." First Solar is a name that will run if FOMC signals cuts starting in May. The market is now rewarding breakouts like URI, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia, SMCI, Costco and AMD: "that's an inherent change of character in the markets." Netflix beat subscribers by 60%, yet it's stuck near 575. "In a market that's actually rewarding breakouts," he'd rather be in names breaking out than bottom fishing in names like SE Limited.
XLF is "your biggest and best reason on why this market is going higher" as it tests the breakout from its 2008 highs. After last March's bank failures, he was telling people it was the best buying opportunity, and best-of-breed names like JPMorgan and Goldman have done well since. "Rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." Bears and macro bros will warn of a crash, but "until then stay" optimistic and stay long. He has "no desire to be a part of" Rocket Companies, since management started buying back shares soon after the IPO. His Q1 long, Advance Auto Parts, bought at 57.08, is doing well.
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