Chapters
00:00 Intro: Two Years of the Podcast
00:33 Ben: Nailing Last Week's Dip
02:07 Ben: Buying Heavy Into the Dip
02:41 Nick: Comfortable in His Positions
03:45 Nick: Rivian & Tesla Engulfing Bars
04:19 Ben: Semis Lead the Way
05:22 GP: Nvidia's Broadcom Moment
08:26 AMD, Marvell & Qualcomm
09:28 GP: Netflix at 485
11:03 GlobalFoundries, ARM & Alibaba
12:08 Redfin, Crocs, Fastly & Upwork
13:11 XLF's Beast Trend
14:11 GP: Square Needs a Retest
15:12 Biotech, Eli Lilly & Dell
16:43 GP: The Bears Flipped Fast
19:47 GP: Costco in New Zealand
21:53 GP: Rotation Is the Lifeblood
25:32 GP: Rivian & Flow-Driven Markets
27:05 What Looks Bad: Boeing
29:10 GP: Big Biotech Starts Strong
30:45 Penn, DigitalOcean & AppLovin
33:18 Oil
34:23 Ben: Bitcoin Above 40
36:03 Marathon & Riot
38:36 Q1 Picks Check-In
39:41 Nike, Tiger & Jordan
42:16 Shopify & Meta
44:53 Nick: Holding the 23.6% Retracement
45:55 GP: China & Mental Capital
48:26 GP: GE's 24-Year Downtrend
49:29 Cava
50:36 Nick: Don't Get Cute
53:46 Tesla: Accumulation or Garbage Action?
57:21 GP: Sub-200 Tesla?
1:00:32 Nick: Tesla's 160 Range
1:02:05 GP: Tesla's Rising Moving Averages
1:05:47 GP: Mega Caps Lead
1:07:20 Nick: Quick Resets
1:08:25 Nick: Where to Buy the QQQs
1:10:29 2024: The Year Breakouts Work?
1:12:04 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #100 went out live on Monday evening, January 8, with Ben, GP and Nick, and GP called in from New Zealand, where it was already January 9. Ben said the hosts had nailed last week's dip, and with Nvidia breaking out, his heavy buys at the end of last week were "paying already." The hosts covered semis leading, GP's view that rotation is "the lifeblood of a bull market," XLF's trend, Square, Rivian, big biotech, Bitcoin, the Q1 picks, a long look at Tesla's setup, mega caps lining up and where Nick would buy the QQQs.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said, "I wish I would have gone heavier last week, but I did not." He was comfortable in his positions and didn't want to wreck his prices. "Everything looks so good I didn't know where to start." Rivian and Tesla almost look identical, each putting in "a sneaky little engulfing bar" today. On many charts, he drew Fibs from the October pivot lows to the recent highs, and most held the 23.6% after only four days down. If they hold and break out, "the idea or the trend of like lockout rally is going to continue." Trying to get cute over the last year "just ended up being a waste of time." "If price is above like the moving averages that you watch just kind of let price... do what it want to do." Alerts bring his attention to price at pivotal points.
On Tesla, he thinks it's "largely being accumulated through here," with "a lot of underlying support" in the 220–250 range, and most of the above-average volume bars on the daily are green. He'd be hesitant to throw money at 200. If price came back there, he'd look for it to break and hold around 160, since it's a range on top of a range, 160 to 200 and then 200 to 280. "I'd gladly be long versus 160," though he'd still be cautious if Tesla broke down while the market ripped. Amazon and Apple looked good to him today. "The quicker the harder the reset is the more likely... it's a shake out than a breakdown," since corrections happen through time or price, or both.
If you didn't buy the QQQs last week, "I think a down open tomorrow would be a gift." Near 402.50, "you buy... basically the bottom of" the candle from the week before Christmas. Otherwise, you could trade against 406.09, the gap high, and "either way I think you're using last week's low as your risk right now." The December 28 candle is the B point on many ABCD legs higher, so you could also buy the breakout. Asked whether 2024 is the year breakouts actually work, he said, "I think so," since the QQQs broke out and made an all-time monthly closing high. He thinks the QQQs could reach about 430–440 into earnings, roughly 8–10% higher, and then pull back to retest this breakout, about a 10% correction. "You're going to be happier holding and doing less for sure."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said, "I went really heavy in my bag of buys at the end of last week and they're paying already." Semis were the first to bounce "and now they're the first to show the strength." He played Nvidia on Friday and sold his calls, which would have closed today at $29. Today he missed Nvidia off the open for another options trade, but "I wasn't going to chase." On Bitcoin, which touched about 47,330, "my thesis is still the same. It bounced where it had to bounce... to keep the momentum going," and above 40 it's still good. On Tesla, he bought near last week's low for the moving-average reasons GP gave, after a previous buy in the 213s, and he sees a break below that 213 area as "pretty easy stop."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that after five to seven months of consolidation in the mega caps, "it hasn't been distribution and today proves that." Nvidia is "having its Broadcom move moment." Broadcom's breakout from the box was about 21%, and 21% from 505 gets you to about the 610s. "You're in the early stages of all this AI stuff... you're talking about distribution then you're being shortsighted." Nvidia stalled at 495 on Friday on options flows, then broke out today, and SMCI had an even better move. On Netflix, he's "sitting pretty" holding shares from much lower, but "there's no reason for Netflix to clear 485 after six months and then lose it again." XLF "reclaimed the nine-day moving average on October 31st" and has trended higher since. Square, after a nearly 80% move, couldn't take out the prior pivot highs, so "a little caution is warranted to me." He thinks it needs a retest, like Roku and Shopify had in 2023.
He said the bears flipped fast, and Nick's call last week to start nibbling at or under 400 on the QQQs was "bang on," as they got down to 395. On a call with short sellers, everyone wanted big pullbacks, "and I was like we are literally just breaking out of five months of consolidation." Costco opened its first New Zealand store last year, in Auckland, and plans more, which he called "just good smart management." For the bigger picture, breadth expanded while mega caps rested, and now the mega caps are leading again: "rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market, it's not the lifeblood of a bear market." Rivian's numbers weren't bad, but big short-term puts came in before deliveries, and "the market seems to be more and more flow driven." He'd "be patient" on Rivian for the longer term. Big biotech is exploding to start the year, including Amgen, Regeneron, Gilead, Biogen and Moderna, and "what starts this year strong... tends to be the ones that continue to be strong throughout the year."
Most China stocks are "in the prove me wrong phase," with multi-year nothingness, and "these are the types of charts that destroy your mental capital." His rule of thumb is to try two to three times and move on. GE "actually looks like it's ready to shift out of a 24-year downtrend," though he has no position and would look for weakness. On Tesla, it broke the rising nine-week, not a declining one, "so most likely we will reclaim that this week," and he'd love a monster bullish engulfing bar this week. A 250-plus close "would be awesome." Tesla needs to "crush levels" to get into a proper uptrend. He doesn't think sub-200 is coming again, and if it did he wouldn't be buying. He's watching 212, or 215, for a possible inverse head and shoulders. With the nine-week, 20-week and 50-week all rising, a break below them would most likely be a false breakdown. He thinks Netflix "is ready to move," along with Nvidia, Microsoft, Google and Amazon, and "over the next week to two weeks" mega caps lead.
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