Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Wednesday After-the-Close Show
00:50 GP: Watching Paint Dry
03:54 GP: Tesla Bends But Doesn't Break
04:58 Ben: Riding AMD & Amazon
06:32 GP: What's the Next Leg?
09:09 GP: The Dollar Breaks Down
12:48 GP: Regional Banks & the Monthly Nine
14:24 Nick Joins: Price Over Macro
17:58 Nick: Rotation Toward IWM
21:39 Ben: Semis Still on a Tear
24:17 GP: Breakouts Without Follow-Through
26:53 Nick: Mixed Signals & Apple's Four-Year MA
29:58 Nick: Correcting Through Time or Price
33:37 Nick: Splits Need to Happen
35:44 Gold Breaks Out Over 195
37:52 Ben: Bitcoin's New All-Time High
40:29 GP: Why Is Crypto So Strong?
42:03 GP: Cisco's Three Weeks Tight
46:08 Short Picks for March
49:51 Q1 Picks Check-In
51:58 GP: Wayfair's Base
57:14 GP: Dave & Profitability
58:46 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #106 went out live on Wednesday, March 6, right after the close, with Ben and GP, and Nick joined about 14 minutes in. GP said it "feels like watching paint dry": winners keep winning while the laggards flail without breaking. The hosts covered Tesla at the bottom of its range, the dollar breaking down, regional banks, rotation toward small caps, mixed signals in the mega caps, gold's breakout, Bitcoin's new all-time high and Cisco. They made short picks to run through March 31 (Nick Lemonade, GP Chevron, Ben YETI) and checked the Q1 longs.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said a macro event may be needed to spark small caps, but "I don't care about the macro... I'm paying attention to the price action." He thinks big caps are taking a breather while money figures out where to go. A lot of Tesla frustration comes from people focusing on "names that just aren't in favor right now." He thinks the market is "trying to move towards like the IWM and more speculative stocks," but "it's just like the beginning stages of it," and bottom-ticking is a fool's game. He sees mixed signals and expects it to be "very stock specific," with very little forgiveness for any misstep. If Apple's 170 floor falls out, the width of its range could put it back near 140, a tap of the four-year moving average. The QQQs could range from 400 to here in a sideways period like last June to November.
With the QQQs grinding along their 20-day, "it's making it very hard for me to want to put any new capital to work." He has started selling into some moves, since there aren't many low-risk, high-reward setups. If the SMH corrects through time like last July to October, "we would have some gorgeous setups." Through price, it could be a lot sharper, with Nvidia about 250 points above its 50-day. "I'm leaning more towards base building." He thinks SMCI is heading to 1,400 on a measured move and that "some splits need to happen in the SMH names." He "threw a dart" at gold and silver, through SLV, but has no interest in the miners. His short pick is Lemonade at about 16, which "looks like it's hanging by a thread," and he sees a gap fill at 11 if the market weakens. His Q1 long, United Rentals, bought at 505, is up a little better than 33%.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben hasn't been very active: "when you've bought at good points... you're not eager to necessarily move out." He's "very happy with what AMD has done," so he isn't trading around it or selling calls against it. Amazon is at the top of its range near all-time highs, "it won't take much for that to fire up through 187," and he isn't selling calls there either. "It's not time to hit the eject button." Semis are a group that "continues to be on a tear," and with Nvidia and AMD doing what they do, the QQQs can absorb three or four mega caps treading water. "I don't know that the QQQs, meaning the tech trade, is dead." Gold "finally" released above 195.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high yesterday, sold off during the session and popped right back above the nine-week SMA. Ethereum made a big move and "the alts are popping right now." Bitcoin dominance didn't quite reach 56–57%, so it may be starting to turn. To him, bouncing back so quickly "represents a strong market." His short pick for the rest of March is YETI at 38.96: "I think it could come in back around... low 30s," possibly 33 or even 30, after it failed its moving averages last week. His Q1 long, Freshworks, bought at 20.53, is underwater with no earnings before quarter end, so he's chalking up the L after winning last quarter.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said winners pull back and the laggards flail, but nothing is breaking, which he called "mind numbing a bit." Tesla fell about 13% in three days to the bottom of its range, but it didn't close below the lows. He'd expected 175 to break, and it "bent but did not crush it." Netflix is up 200–250% from the bottoms, so the question is the next leg. He thinks winners win because they're growing and showing free cash flow, and people may be building positions in names that join the next leg. The dollar went nearly straight up as rates went from 3.98 to about 5. Now DXY is breaking below last week's inside week, with RSI making lower highs since last year, which "generally... is something that's powerful for the equities rally." Correlations are changing, as when TLT rose yesterday while stocks fell.
KRE's monthly is rejecting the declining 20 but wicking off the nine, similar to the QQQs last September and October. If KRE goes, he expects other banks to participate, and then small caps. XLF, KRE and XBI are participating one by one, yet IWM is still sideways at the top of its range. Square, Shopify, Amazon and Meta are faffing around at the top of their ranges. Netflix broke out, then sagged for three days on little volume in an inside week, a pattern of "break out, no follow through." He thinks holders are selling calls against positions, a trade where "they haven't lost yet" this year. If Tesla doesn't act differently in a 10% correction, "where does it end?"
He owns gold physically but has "no desire for this trade ever," though it's hitting a line he drew years ago. He asked why crypto is so strong, with no earnings, while so many stocks still refuse to participate. The Nasdaq Composite has a rejection candle while MACD is still expanding, "a pullback in a bullish sentiment," so maybe participation broadens after March OpEx. Cisco closed three weeks at 48.44, 48.86 and 48.40, a three-weeks-tight setup that has already taken out the last two weeks' highs. Big flow came into June 55 and 57.50 calls, and a failed monthly head-and-shoulders "is potentially huge." His short is Chevron: "if it breaks the 139 level I think it destroys that 132 level." His Q1 long, Advance Auto Parts, bought at 57.08, is up about 25%.
Wayfair has "all the kind of ingredients" to launch, with quarterly and monthly alignment and a tight wedge above its moving averages. It's "probably at least going to 90s, if not 100," and he'd be disappointed if it doesn't "destroy 90." Beyond that, he's thinking 150–160 near the 200-week, around 145–152 on his chart. Bases can take years, like Nutanix's, and Rivian ran from 14 to 30 without a base. Dave is up about 700% from its base after going profitable, while Roku keeps pushing profitability to the next quarter.
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