Chapters
00:00 Intro: NFL Free Agency Day
00:44 GP: A Lockout Rally All Year?
05:23 Ben: Time Frames & a 5–10% Pullback
07:32 GP: Stair-Stepping Higher
09:06 GP: Bonds Are Basing Too
10:40 GP: XLF Looks Like SPY in 2013
12:47 GP: Shopify, XBI & Rotation
16:23 Nick: JPMorgan as an Nvidia Template
18:31 XLU, Pfizer & Moderna
21:11 Fintech Recovers
22:44 Nick: Square's Stage One Base
24:50 Nick: Using Weekly ATR for Stops
25:51 GP: Palo Alto Doesn't Look Great
27:24 GP: Boeing's 2018–2020 Echo
29:28 GP: Royal Caribbean's Management
31:01 Dark Pools & Options Flow
32:37 GP: Zoom Has No Accumulation
36:14 One Stock for 52 Weeks
40:29 Viewer Charts: Hyperfine & More
49:53 GP: Transocean's Long Game
53:34 Ben: Polkadot & Altcoin Season
57:46 GP: Bitcoin to 200,000?
1:01:53 What About the Miners?
1:02:53 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #107 went out live on Monday evening, March 11, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP asked whether the lockout rally could ride the 20-day for the rest of the year, and the hosts debated what a healthy pause would look like. GP also walked through basing charts from bonds to XLF, Shopify and XBI, and the rotation out of Nvidia. They covered Square's stage one base and stops, Palo Alto, Boeing, Zoom, their one stock to hold for 52 weeks, Transocean, altcoins and how far Bitcoin could run.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said riding the 20-day all year "wouldn't shock me," but "it would definitely catch me a little bit off guard." A consolidation like last June to October would be healthy. Apple and Google have already pulled in, and cybersecurity names like Zscaler, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are coming into their 200-day. He called Friday's SMH bar "a major warning shot" on high volume, and "high-volume pivots love to get retested." He doesn't think SMH is done, and any pause would be "short and violent." JPMorgan's daily after its January 12 engulfing bar is "pretty much identical" to what he'd like to see from Nvidia and SMH. His ghost candles on SMH sketch a consolidation that could last until August, though "this is not my prediction." He's starting to dig into altcoins, and he thinks "all things like finance and online" are the space to pay attention to.
Square is "probably the best stage one looking base that I see," especially on the weekly, and "I just like charts where it's really easy to define risk." He'd put a stop in the gap under the 20-day at about 72.25, or 60 if he wanted to be generous. Square's weekly ATR of about 7.5 points shows how weekly ATR can set stops mechanically. Giving it 15 points "forces you to take extreme small positions," small enough that a stop-out barely matters. Zoom showed up on his percent-gainer list with a nice-looking bar, so he asked GP about its accumulation versus distribution. For his 52-week hold, "I was gonna say Tesla just because, but I'll probably go with Moderna. I think it's just getting started."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "we have to talk about time frame." Over the next 9 to 12 months, it would be foolish not to expect a 5 to 10% pullback in one of the indices, and "it wouldn't be a bad idea to just catch our breath and grind sideways for a little while." On the QQQs, the ideal pivot low is "somewhere around this 420 level." A test of the trend line would be about 10%, near 400, but he doesn't want a deep pullback and thinks it can float around the 20-day: "that's how corrections are made, either time or price." He likes Moderna, which "looks good now but I think once it clears 120 it looks really good." His 52-week hold is Google: "this could be their year." He's long Tesla but wouldn't choose it.
"Dot looks amazing and not just because I am very long Dot." Polkadot is outperforming Chainlink, though he still likes Link. With Ethereum above 4,000, a break of all-time highs "is a matter of when not if." He's still waiting for Bitcoin dominance to reach 56–57%, because money flows into Bitcoin first, then Ethereum, then the alts, so "altcoin season is soon," though "I don't think it's here yet." He also likes The Graph, Solana, which is outperforming Ethereum, Uniswap, Maker, Avalanche and Stellar Lumens. His approach is to "put a little bit in several altcoins" so he catches the big movers. He thinks Bitcoin is "definitely going over 100" and could reach 200,000. What puzzles him is that the usual run comes after the halving, about 40 days out, so "we're a little early," and an uptrend line from prior tops could cap it near 90,000.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP asked whether the lockout rally, which they called back in November, extends all year, with only 5% to 10% pullbacks in the winners. He thinks it's "stair stepping higher," not "only up from here." He doesn't want another July to October, when "the dispersion trade... was brutal" and names like Roku and Shopify fell 50–60% in three months. The QQQs have consolidated along the way off the 20- and 30-day. Beneath the surface, LQD has pushed into its rising 20-week and is looking to push out of its base. Thirty-year bond futures, junk bonds and TLT look similar, and TLT has "insane support" at 20-year lows. XLF has spent two years retesting its 2008 highs, like SPY in 2013, which consolidated for two years and then broke out into 2016. If he had to bet, he'd say we don't get a heavy 10% pullback this year.
Shopify rejected the 200-week and is holding the rising 21-week. XBI is doing what Shopify did four weeks ago, and he expects the 20-week to catch up around 96–97. The last two days showed "clear rotation" out of Nvidia into Apple and Google, and "this type of rotation can carry this a lot farther than people think." Cisco has three weeks tight, and Oracle cleared all-time highs on earnings off the 20-week. If XLU starts participating, "it's just more fuel to the fire." He holds Pfizer long term, bought at about a 6.4% dividend, and doesn't expect to touch it for maybe 10 years. Dave ripped because it "went profitable": "just show profit and your stock will do better." On Square, he'd use the weekly nine, around 70.8, or buy a pullback to the nine or a breakout above 83.30, not here.
He isn't touching Palo Alto, which keeps rejecting its nine-day. If it breaks 276.81, it could retest the bottom, and below that he'd like 225–230. Boeing looks like its 2018–2020 head-and-shoulders, and by bar count it could take about 40 more weeks, around this October's election. Royal Caribbean, also hit by COVID and dilution, is near all-time highs because "management steps up." He doesn't watch dark pools, and options flow is mostly noise, though Joe Kunkle reads it well. Zoom "just doesn't qualify," with no accumulation candles and a 60–70 range since August 2022 that fails at 75. For his 52-week hold, he picked First Solar, which went from 60 to 240 and is wicking off its supply zone. Its last daily capitulation bar was the largest volume in about a decade, and he expects it to take out the 50-week soon.
For a years-long hold, Transocean is reclaiming its monthly 50 after about seven rejections, with heavy accumulation. A monthly close below the 50 is the stop, and "the move here is in close to the 40s," maybe 7 or 8x over many years, since "oil hasn't even started its move higher yet." He thinks Bitcoin goes "a little bit over 200,000." In 2020, it broke out after tagging 20,000 and ran to about 64,000 in about four months, exactly the 2.61 extension. The same extension from today's all-time highs is about 203,000. He also asked what's left for the miners to mine.
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