Chapters
00:00 Intro: OPEX & Fed Week
02:08 GP: When Netflix Goes, the Market Goes
06:15 Netflix Targets: 900, 1,240 & 1,300
09:20 Last Week's Rip Off the Lows
09:53 Nick: Meta & Tesla's 233–235 Level
10:54 GP: Tesla's Only Way Out Is a Gap and Go
13:27 GP: Tesla's Monthly MACD Cross
15:03 The $10,000 Question: Tesla or Toast?
18:39 GP: Short Boeing
19:39 Nick: Growth Names: GEV, VST & CEG
21:49 Carnival's Flat-Top Wedge
22:50 Ben: Amazon & the Bezos 200 Wall
24:53 Micron Rejects a 24-Year High
25:23 Nick: CrowdStrike's Island & 285
27:54 Microsoft's Weekly 50 Retest
29:30 Nick: Meta's Five Waves & 544.50
34:45 GP: XBI's Gamma Squeeze Setup
37:51 GP's Gamma-Squeeze List
42:35 GP: AppLovin, Monday.com & Accumulation
44:43 American Electric Power
45:46 Are Rate Cuts Priced In?
48:17 GP: Normalizing Rates Into a Growth Cycle
50:24 Nick: Fat Bases
50:57 Netflix vs. Tesla for Ben's Money
51:28 Zillow & Redfin
53:34 Certainty & the Election
57:42 Shakeouts Before the Breakout
58:43 Ben: Bitcoin's September Window
1:00:45 Coinbase vs. Bitcoin & the 161 Level
1:04:22 Nick: No Edge in Bitcoin's Range
1:06:28 GP: Junk Bonds Say Risk-On
1:09:10 Is Anyone Getting Pinched?
Market Hours #125 went out live on Monday, September 16, just after 3 p.m. Eastern, with Ben, Nick and GP, in a week with both OPEX and the Fed decision. GP restated his long-running thesis that "the way the market goes is the way Netflix goes." He sees an insane number of charts basing out just as the Fed prepares to add liquidity with a cut. The hosts covered Netflix targets, Tesla's island and its monthly MACD, what they'd do with Ben's $10,000, Boeing, growth names, Meta, CrowdStrike, GP's gamma-squeeze list, whether rate cuts are priced in, Bitcoin and Coinbase, and junk bonds as a risk-on tell. Someone also flagged Zillow and Redfin as ready for big runs if housing unlocks off lower rates.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks Netflix "is getting ready to run to like 900," then probably chops between 900 and 1,000. Meta "is set to go." He likes that Meta and Netflix didn't pull in as hard as names like Apple and Google. Tesla "put in that nasty bar and ate it up," and it looks like an ascending triangle or an island, with 233–235 the level he's watching. With $10,000, he'd skip Tesla for "another easy double." If Toast busts out, he could see it running to 50. He also loves Roblox, which is three weeks tight at the top of its range. Among the growth names, GEV already had "a pretty slick breakout," VST is breaking out and CEG is on the same lists.
He sees CrowdStrike as another island. It has to take out 270, and "I think that 285 is a massive level and if it can get above 285 and hold I think it's back to game on," with room to trade the range up toward 350. Microsoft has a similar chart. He owns Meta and "would have put money to work today." It formed five waves in its base starting in January 2024. Last week's rip off the lows made a higher low off the 50-day, and today it broke above the September 12 high and the wide-range bar high from September 6. Final confirmation is through 544.50. When a base gets its fifth touch and doesn't rip out of the channel, he moves the name to the back burner. He'd set alerts on Affirm at 45 and 35 and flagged American Electric Power's base. Asked why the market goes higher, he pointed to fat bases and said he doesn't think the market cares who wins the election. In Bitcoin's range, "I don't really feel like I have an edge unless I'm buying versus the low end of the range... I'm not looking to short the floor."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben did the napkin math on Netflix's breakdown range: 700 minus 162 is 538 points, which projects to about 1,240. He asked the others how they'd invest $10,000 for him, and he couldn't put everything into a Boeing short: "I don't think that I could sleep well at night knowing that I'm betting on the collapse." Amazon "is one of my largest holdings and I am going to say forever higher." He sees it going back to 200 and clearing it this time. Bitcoin is "still in my September window." It hasn't powered through the weekly moving averages and is "sandwiched," but it's still holding the 50 weekly with "plenty of time to get up above 61." He's still holding the 161 line he marked on Coinbase weeks ago. If GP is right that rate cuts mean liquidity, crypto as "the ultimate risk on" should benefit: "I would expect this time next week we are sitting in a very different place." He doesn't see a 2008-style crisis, and he pointed to people overleveraged in $80,000 pickup trucks.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Netflix has sat at all-time highs since March. It came back to 585 in the yen carry selloff and has rejected highs over and over. It's about 82% institutionally owned, and short-term option sellers keep collecting premium, so it needs a catalyst, probably October earnings rather than the Fed. "The move is to 1,300," with the initial earnings move likely near 1,000, and his monthly shows about 1,200. Liquidity is thin: in the morning it took hundreds of thousands of shares to push it up seven points and only about 10,000 to drop it 11. Tesla is an island, and "the only way out... is to gap out and force the options market to reprice." He has five-to-six-month LEAPs. The monthly MACD is crossing up for the first time since November 2019, "the start of the move from 17 to $414," and Tesla sits above its Ichimoku clouds on the monthly, weekly and daily. He'd put some of Ben's money in Tesla, though "it's been a dog for multiple years." He'd short Boeing, which "is not going to have more than a 10% move higher" and has the Batman pattern.
Carnival has "a flat little flat top wedge." He'd buy near 15 or on the breakout near 20, while 17 is no man's land that needs a wider stop. Amazon is basing above its September 2020 all-time high. Micron took out a 24-year high and immediately rejected it, which he didn't expect. CrowdStrike might be a trap, with distribution and customers like Delta and United diversifying away. Microsoft touched and retested its rising weekly 50, and both were bought. The XBI sits above about 95% of the puts in an OPEX week, in potential gamma-squeeze territory toward about 108–110, and it's above all its daily, weekly and monthly moving averages. Other names in potential gamma squeezes include Tesla, which is "game on" above 230 (it hit 229.96), Netflix, Sea Limited, Dell, Alibaba, Roblox and Affirm. Alibaba is "eventually going to go back to the 110s and 120." AppLovin, Monday.com, Palantir and Wayfair show accumulation, which gives "permission to launch." In 2024, though, "every breakout has been sold" for seven or eight months.
He thinks rate cuts aren't priced in and are bullish because they bring liquidity. In 2021, the market didn't die when Powell turned hawkish in November but on January 5. He thinks the Fed is "normalizing rates into a growth cycle," pointing to the Empire manufacturing survey swinging from about -4.7 to 11.5, GDP around 2.8–3% and inflation under 3%. He wouldn't buy Netflix for Ben, because "this was a stock to buy in the 160s to 250s, not in the 700s," and he'd rather put it in Tesla. Coinbase is "well under its 200-day" while MicroStrategy tracks Bitcoin. He compared Coinbase to Affirm, which slid from 48–50 to 21–22 on low volume before rebounding to 45 within a week of earnings. You could short Coinbase with a stop above 161 or buy with a stop below it, and if it's a bear flag the breakdown is to 118. Junk bonds are starting to break out, "this is a great tell on risk on," and "we probably get a move in the Russell too."
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