Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back From a Two-Week Hiatus
01:40 Flat Since March 1
03:14 GP: The Market Needs New Money
05:47 Nick: Range-Bound Chop & Mega Caps
07:19 GP: The S&P Inclusion Curse & Dell
10:28 Nick: Palantir's IPO Range Highs
15:09 GP: Coinbase Breaks Correlation
16:43 Nick: Coinbase Gap Fills
17:44 Ben: Coinbase Levels & Bitcoin's Range
21:49 Ben: Bitcoin Dominance & Alts
22:50 GP: Bitcoin vs. May–June 2021
24:25 Nick: Where New Money Goes
27:33 GP: Cutting Into a Growth Cycle
31:41 GP: Consumers Fight Back
33:13 Ben: Starting an IBIT Position
34:14 GP: Wingstop's Topping Formation
40:56 Nick: Feelers, SMH Names & AMD
43:31 Nick: STX & the Coupang Disappointment
44:01 Ben: Adding AMD, Amazon, IBIT & Roblox
45:36 Nick: Arm & Nvidia
46:06 GP: Nvidia's Four-Candle Pattern
47:39 Quarterly Picks Check-In
49:46 Thermo Fisher Breaking Out
51:20 Crown Castle
53:25 Is the 2024 Top In?
55:31 GP: A Flow-Driven Market
57:04 MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin
57:34 Ben: A Schedule Update
Market Hours #124 went out live on Monday, September 9, with Ben, Nick and GP back after a two-week hiatus. GP said the Nasdaq futures were sitting right at the March 1 high of 18,372, "on a road to nowhere," and that this market needs new money that only rate cuts will bring. The hosts covered the S&P inclusion pattern and Dell, Palantir, Coinbase's break in correlation, Bitcoin's range and Ben's new IBIT position, consumers pushing back on prices, Nick's feelers in semis, Nvidia's tight candles, a quarterly picks check-in, and viewer questions on Thermo Fisher and Crown Castle. At the quarterly picks check-in, Ben's Bitcoin was right where it was on July 8, GP's Coinbase was down about 16%, and Nick's ICE was up about 15%.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick sees "range-bound chop" and is watching the mega caps to see whether they leg down and drag the QQQs with them. He also sees relative strength in names like Palantir breaking out on its S&P inclusion news. Palantir still hasn't cleared its IPO range highs near 45, and his plan is to "sell some." On Coinbase, he's looking near term at the gap fills around 140, then 132, then the 120s. He said something feels odd about how hard crypto is being pumped everywhere, and he doesn't think Bitcoin looks very good. He thinks the new money is looking for "the new actual leaders" of the next cycles, not the over-owned mega caps.
He's throwing on small feelers to keep a pulse on the market. He's watching IOT, Palantir and Duolingo ("looks great"), and he's tempted by SMH names, with KLA sitting on the 100- and 200-day. "As much as I don't like trading AMD... I do for some reason think like it looks okay." He's looking for semis to confirm a higher low through the pivot from a couple of weeks ago. Arm could make a double bottom confirmed through 135–140, and "I honestly think Nvidia looks pretty damn good." STX looks good if it pushes through the 50-day. Coupang "was a major disappointment." He dumped it and said he'd put on way too big a position. He'd throw a starter on Thermo Fisher, and he thinks MicroStrategy's double bottom off the 200-day looks good.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben thinks an S&P inclusion is like a split announcement: the run-up comes first, then a consolidation that shakes out weak hands before the stock does anything quarters later. On Coinbase, he turned his old marks back on: a 160 area it has lost, then the 140 area. He also sees a possible "Batman" pattern that could take it to the 70s, though "I don't necessarily think that's going to happen." On Bitcoin, "if we don't hold here in the 54, 53 range we're going down here to 47, 46s." For now it looks like a 55-to-70 range, and he thinks his September call is still in line because two of the last three Septembers pushed up. He hasn't added Bitcoin beyond what he's held "from back in the four digits," and in a breakdown he'd be "throwing my alts out the window." Bitcoin dominance has been in a tight range at the top for about eight weeks, with the stochastic and RSI starting to roll over, which would mean alts start to outperform.
Last week he started a position in IBIT in his long-term holdings. If it undercuts the 47 area, he'll wait for a base before adding. If it bounces there, he'll buy the bounce, and he'll add higher too. IBIT will eventually be "a top five holding for me." He has been adding slowly to AMD, Amazon and Roblox. He apologized for his inconsistency over the holiday and some health issues, and said he'll miss Mondays for a while, so the show may need a second day: "the pod's not dead."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP's thesis is that the money already in the market only moves it between the top and bottom of the range. New money comes when rate cuts push people out of their "safe 5% treasuries," including Buffett's roughly $300 billion in cash. Tesla was up about 5% Thursday and down 4% Friday, so "it's a traders' market." S&P inclusion "has been almost a death strike" for stocks that ran into it. Super Micro built from 250 to 1,200 into its inclusion and is now down 60%, and Tesla is back near its inclusion level four years later. Dell sold off into its inclusion, so he wonders whether it becomes the outlier that now shows relative strength. Palantir "just needs 35.18 to close at an all-time monthly high," but monthly breakouts this year, Netflix and Micron among them, have mostly "broke out dead."
He's "a bag holder in Coinbase" from recent purchases. It "completely broke correlation" with MicroStrategy and Bitcoin last week. Bitcoin's structure looks like May to June 2021 against the weekly 50, which ended in a double top, though he doesn't think it's the same pattern. He thinks the Fed is "cutting into a trough of a growth cycle," which usually means "an explosive move higher." Jobs data shows a slowdown in growth, "not jobs losses," and so far the Fed has been "on the money." Consumers are fighting back by not buying from chains that refuse to lower prices. Wingstop shows a topping formation, and Starbucks shows distribution, "a tasty short offering." It's not a short yet because it hasn't broken any levels.
Nvidia did its usual thing, breaking everything before reversing. It's the same pattern as August 5: "four candles that are in the same type range," and "whichever way this tight range breaks is the next direction." Thermo Fisher "looks exactly like the IWM chart but this one's breaking out." The highest close of the range is 619, with one more small range around 631. He thinks "the top is not in for 2024." Friday's selling was "side-stepping all the way down," which is flow-driven positioning, not panic. The market has evolved into a flow-driven one since 2020, which is why follow-through is rare. MicroStrategy underperformed today, up about 9% on a nearly 5% Bitcoin move.
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