Chapters
00:00 Intro: Bitcoin & the QQQs
01:02 Ben: After the Hurricane
02:38 GP: Netflix's 700–706 Range & No Money Going to Work
04:39 GP: Meta's Breakout & Tiny Targets
06:39 China's Stimulus Bazooka & GP's Alibaba Calls
09:43 GP: Wait for the Scare, Then Buy LEAPs
11:49 Ben: Alibaba Near 100
13:53 Nick: Alibaba's 95 Gap & Basing
16:26 Tepper Goes All In
17:57 International: India & Emerging Markets
21:34 A Total-World ETF Looks Like the S&P
22:37 GP: Monthly Charts Ready for the Next Leg
24:37 GP: MicroStrategy's Six Inside Months
25:37 Q3 Quarterly Picks: Coinbase, ICE & Bitcoin
28:16 What's Wrong With Coinbase?
34:34 Nick: Robinhood Over Coinbase
35:35 Ben: Free Shares From 55
37:08 GP: Coinbase Needs an Outperformance Day
38:41 Tesla's Breakout & the 265 Level
41:16 Ben: Show Me the Robotaxi
43:57 Nick: Tesla's Handle
44:28 Grab Holdings' Weekly Base
47:09 GP: The New IPO Charts
49:14 Viewer Picks
50:19 Q4 Picks: Snowflake, VRT, PayPal & Wayfair
57:06 Final Q3 Scores
58:44 The Pick Swap
Market Hours #127 went out live on Monday, September 30, the last trading day of the quarter, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben opened with an update after the hurricane: his family is fine, but he asked viewers to keep western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee and western South Carolina in their thoughts. The market was back where it started the previous week, and GP doesn't think anything goes anywhere until the election. The big topics were China's stimulus "bazooka" and where to buy Alibaba, emerging markets, monthly charts setting up, MicroStrategy's pivot, what's wrong with Coinbase, Tesla's breakout and Grab. They closed out the Q3 stock-pick contest and made their Q4 picks, which came with a last-second swap.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick owns Alibaba too. After China's move, he thinks it "needs a few weeks to maybe a couple months of some basing action." He wouldn't mind adding on a pullback to the 50% of the move from the breakout at 80 to 110, which is about 95, near the gap and a psychological level. Still, "it's too hard to try to pick that bottom." "You might wake up and all of a sudden it's gapped up to 140," so "it's almost like crypto in a way where you just got to be in it and hang on." For international exposure, he pulled up India funds and noted India has monthly all-time highs on deck. On Coinbase, "there's better setups. I'd rather be in Hood right now than Coin." He's not "uber bearish" just because it's below the 200-day, but it's in a range, "so there's just not a setup for me to be in it."
He thinks Tesla is going higher and would love to see it "build out a handle right here and just chill for another couple weeks." He flagged Grab Holdings, the Singapore-based "Uber" of Southeast Asia, after Howard mentioned its weekly base. He'd pick it if it were already breaking out, but inside the range it "seems like dead money." He narrowly won the Q3 stock-pick contest with ICE, from 141.17 to about 160.64, or 13.79%. His Q4 pick is VRT at 99.49, which "looks great on the monthly, looks better than Nvidia," with a 140 target.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben likes the 100 level on Alibaba. Part of the challenge with China names is that "they're halfway around the world," and things break while we're sleeping. He sees about 100 as fair value to add to an existing position and still expects at least the 120s, about 20% upside. With Tepper telling people not to be short a market being supported, "why do you try to fight it?" He's got some free cash, and "India might be a little play there." His Q3 pick, Bitcoin, went from 56,000 to about 63,515, or 13.41%. Bitcoin didn't bust through its flag in September, but it's holding all the key weekly moving averages and the monthly nine. "Bitcoin looks great to me." He already bought a lot lower, so "now is not the time to buy more."
He's "still in the camp that something's wrong with Coinbase" and thinks 120 is "a most likely outcome," maybe stopping in the 110s–120s. His average is about 55, so these are essentially "free shares" he's letting ride with no stop, and he's sold calls against them. He'd sell if it broke that area. He's still long Tesla "until proven otherwise." On the robotaxi event, "put it on the road... show me," and he called the Cybertruck a lot of hype that didn't deliver what was promised. He noted Elon's feed over the weekend had one tweet about We, Robot and 74 about Trump. For Q4 he first chose PayPal at 78.03 with a target of at least 100, then took Snowflake after GP dropped it.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Netflix "looks fine, it's just not going anywhere till earnings." It's ranging between 700 and 706 on minuscule volume, about 848,000 shares by 2:37 p.m., so breakouts get sold the next day. "Who's putting money to work in this market right now unless you're already long?" For people already in positions, it's an opportunity to add. He mocked tiny breakout targets like Meta to 550 off a 542 high after eight months of consolidation: "that math ain't mathing." He had Alibaba 90 calls for Friday and didn't roll them before China announced its stimulus, "but it was still a winning trade." Alibaba was up about 21% on the week and KWEB about 26%. He summed up Tepper's view as "you should not be short this market," and "pennies in front of steamrollers" is the theme in his head.
For entries, he wants the scare first. After the initial 20–25% pop there's usually a big 50% retracement where everyone gives up on China again, and "that's where you buy," likely with LEAPs once inflated premiums come in. It usually takes about six months to reposition after a monster policy shift, as in June to October 2022. "I can't imagine not wanting to get long on any decent pullback here." He prefers emerging markets to India because it's "coiled," with a monster base, and "once it clears that 46.30 area I think it's off to the races." Monthly charts like Home Depot, Lowe's, Salesforce, Netflix, Meta, Palantir, Duolingo, IOT and Monday.com "are telling you that the market is ready for the next leg higher." He's still in the post-election camp. MicroStrategy has "six inside months above the 131.50 pivot," the prior 52-week high, and above the monthly 9 SMA. A monthly close under 131.50 or a break of the monthly nine means get out.
His Q3 pick, Coinbase, was down about 19%. It underperforms on down and up days, "almost like it turned itself into a 2X Bitcoin play," but low monthly volume "gives me hopes that it's just shenanigans." It reclaimed the 50-week SMA and "immediately gaps down 6%," so "it's telling you what it's doing." It could flush through 147 on the way to 120, and he said it would be a great short if it starts breaking levels. Only "a monster outperformance day" would change things, with Bitcoin up 3%, MicroStrategy 6% and Coinbase 20%. He sold Coinbase LEAPs bought around $21 when they were up about 9x, holds some common shares and would reload lower. On Tesla, nothing counts "until it stays above 265 for good," with resistance near 300 above that, and "if you are thinking I need three months give yourself nine months because it's Tesla." He also expects a nasty 10% down day along the way. The IPOs that have based for about two years, like Monday.com, look phenomenal. For Q4 he picked Snowflake, with 110 as a clear stop, then switched to "the chart I trust," Wayfair at 56.18.
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod