Chapters
00:00 Intro & the Tweets
02:34 GP: Same Ranges All Year & the VIX Build
04:37 Does the Market Care Who Wins?
09:19 GP: Base Building Above the FOMC Candle
10:19 Nick: Would You Buy the VIX Chart?
11:50 A VIX at 22, 1% From All-Time Highs
13:52 Chips, China & Bitcoin at the 200-Day
15:56 Nick: Bitcoin's Cup & Handle
17:59 Ben: Bitcoin ATMs & Normalization
23:34 Nick: Scholar Rock's Explosion
24:41 Coinbase Breaks From Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
28:18 GP: Coinbase Is Technically Broken
32:25 Nick: Where He'd Buy Coinbase
33:58 GP: The 126–128 Area & a Show-Me Story
35:33 Amazon & Netflix
36:35 Nick: Tesla Into the 10/10 Event
37:38 GP: Tesla Is a Show-Me Chart Too
39:12 GP: Meta's Slow Breakout
40:13 Alibaba & TLT
42:51 Energy: XLE, XOM & LNG
46:30 GP: OXY, CVX, COP & Avoiding Commodities
49:06 Nick: Why He Likes Some Energy Names
50:38 Pfizer's Activist Stake
51:41 MicroStrategy & an Offering?
52:44 Quarterly Picks: Snowflake, Wayfair & VRT
54:49 GP: XBI's 96 Buy & 101 Sell
56:20 GP: Half the Market Is Stuck
56:51 GP: Microsoft's Third Test of the 50-Week
59:28 Nick: Get Off Your Long Bias
1:00:29 Ben: Still Sorting Out 2022
1:01:31 GP: The VIX, Microsoft & Puzzle Pieces
Market Hours #128 went out live on Monday, October 7, with Ben, Nick and GP, three days before the Quarterly Cookie Call. GP's read: "we are where we were pretty much all year." The market is trading between the FOMC highs and the FOMC candle, the VIX keeps building, and he expects a flat month and then a decisive move out of the election. Within that, the hosts dug into why Coinbase has broken away from Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, Tesla before its October 10 event, Meta's slow breakout, TLT, energy, their quarterly picks and why Microsoft's chart is the one that worries GP most.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks the election will be "like one of those Y2K things," where everyone gets up in arms and then moves on. If he didn't know it was the VIX, he'd buy that weekly chart, since it just took the 200 and is above all its moving averages. If the market stays range-bound for three or four weeks, the QQQs' ascending wedge would get the bears excited, though "a lot of those wedges... end up turning out to be massive double bottoms." He sees a big cup and handle on Bitcoin's weekly, but all the pumping in the news "has me thinking that... we're not gearing up for a leg higher right now." He added Scholar Rock (SRRK), up about 350% that day, to his list.
On Coinbase, he'd "probably be a buyer at 115" and "definitely be looking to add on the shake under 100." If it spikes below 100, "it needs to rip quick," otherwise he'd be in the camp that it heads back toward the 30s. He thinks Tesla will probably follow the QQQs unless the 10/10 event is massive. Without a position or cushion, "I don't see the FOMO to get involved now." Buy above 270 or against 200, and don't get jerked around in the range. He doesn't pay attention to TLT. In energy, he likes some individual charts. Exxon "looks great" on the weekly, and the prettiest recent base is LNG, but "it's the most frustrating sector to trade." For the active trader, "you're going to have to get off your long-term long bias because we're getting moves in both directions." His quarterly pick, VRT, started at 99.49 and is up about 7%.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said a store manager in his rural area told him the new Bitcoin ATM gets used "every day," mostly by people sending money to family instead of using Western Union. He wonders if that's a sign of Bitcoin becoming mainstream, even with its volatility. On Coinbase, "it just smells of something might be funny with Coinbase." Its consolidation broke down while Bitcoin is still consolidating and MicroStrategy is breaking out, so "the chart no longer tracks the asset, something's up." Maybe it's ETFs and other brokers taking away Coinbase's one-stop-shop role. He'd "probably buy down to 100," where people "would be yelling fire in a burning building," and he's still interested at the right levels. He admits selling is the hardest part of the game for him. He has no energy exposure. His quarterly pick, Snowflake, is slightly underwater. It went below 110, and he didn't buy because he was out with the kids. He thinks 2022 was "such a massive reset" that the market is still sorting out who will lead growth.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that until the election, "I don't think earnings is breaking us out," since no earnings season has done that this year. If the VIX is front-running an event that doesn't happen, its unwind is "the mother candle that gets us out of here and up and to the right." The market "has not cared in 120 years" who wins. It just needs a decisive result, and a landslide either way would be even better. The action since the FOMC looks like "a base building exercise above that FOMC candle," not distribution. The VIX being up 20% "on nothing" at 22 while the market sits about 1% from all-time highs "is not normal behavior." Still, "if they're building into uncertainty and the uncertainty doesn't play out it's a tailwind." Bitcoin "can't get over the daily 200 SMA" and has tracked the QQQs sideways since February. He thinks MicroStrategy's strength probably means another offering is coming.
On Coinbase, "the chart is fundamentally broken." It rejected the weekly 50 and sits below the 20, 50 and 200, so 115–120 "would not be out of the question." It failed at 160 and then 147, and the January–February monthly opens and closes near 126 make 126–128 another area where buyers could step in early. Monthly volume doesn't show distribution, so the weakness "technically doesn't make sense," and it's become "a show me story." Tesla is a show-me chart too, and with IV around 75, front-running it just means paying them premium. He said Meta tagged 399 and ran to 540, so after an eight-month consolidation the breakout "should be a $140, $150 move from that 540 level," not 3–5%. Bonds and TLT were "the only part of the market that has front run anything," and with the 10-year near 3.7–3.8 against a 5% fed funds rate, mean reversion higher is natural. The XLE is "a bull motion in a bear chart." Exxon took out all-time highs, but XLE can't touch its 2008 highs, while OXY, Chevron (despite its huge buyback), Conoco and others are breaking down or rejecting. "Avoid this like the plague." Wayfair, his quarterly pick, started at 56.18 and is up about 10 cents.
He said the XBI gives you "a beautiful 96 buy and a beautiful 101 sell for the rest of your life." Half the market is stuck: XBI, KRE, IWM, Netflix, Google, and Amazon at its 2020 price. Microsoft "is the chart that concerns me the most." It's breaking below the 200-day on its third test of the rising 50-week, "third times don't hold," and it looks like the end of 2021. A breakdown targets about 310–315, near the 200-week, possibly on earnings. His wet-blanket mood usually resolves to the upside, and "it hasn't so far," which is worth paying attention to. "The VIX is outperforming every asset in the last couple of months." Not all FANG names move together, so Microsoft could be isolated, but using a puzzle analogy, only three of 10 pieces fit so far. If more do, "you need to raise that red flag and you need to start raising cash."
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod