Chapters
00:00 Intro: Someone Has to Pull the Trigger
02:04 GP: HIMS & the Liquidity Grab at an All-Time High
05:11 Three Kinds of Free-Alpha Followers
07:46 Time Frames & Buying the Range
10:17 GP: A Late-Stage Cycle, 0DTE & Single-Stock ETFs
11:21 Ben: Covered Calls & Trimming
13:25 How Late Is Late Stage?
15:28 GP: Kodak, Boeing & Chips in a Distribution Cycle
18:03 Ben: AMD Trades Like Garbage
19:37 GP: Sell Nvidia, Buy Tesla, Since June
21:14 Snowflake & Watch-List FOMO
21:45 Nick: Risk Per Trade & Quarter-Size Positions
24:20 Chasing With Smaller Size
25:21 FOMO or Ego?
26:57 Nick: How He'd Trade Snowflake's Earnings Candle
31:33 Amazon & the Megacaps
36:42 Nick: Megacap Tokens?
39:18 Mobileye
43:59 Datadog, Upstart & PayPal
45:31 Stock-Pick Contest: Wayfair & Vertiv
47:33 GP: Euphoria vs. 2021 & HIMS's Valuation
49:06 GP: The IWM Is Designed for Failure
49:36 Nick: A Short Base in January
50:08 Ben: Hope, Fear & Back Into TNA
52:43 Euphoria Anecdotes
56:23 Why the Market Matters for Everyone
Market Hours #134 went out live on Monday, November 25, Thanksgiving week, with Ben, Nick and GP. It opened on a point all three agreed on: setups can be handed to you, but "the trader sitting in the chair has to pull the trigger on the trade." From there the hosts argued over how late this cycle really is. GP sees late-stage behavior that could last years, while Ben is trimming and holding cash in case of a 2022-style year. The episode also covered HIMS's liquidity grab, chips in a distribution cycle, position sizing and chasing, Snowflake's earnings candle, Amazon, Mobileye, the stock-pick contest and whether today's euphoria compares with 2021.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
For growth and momentum traders, Nick said most people he talks with try not to risk more than about 2% of capital per trade. If everything got stopped out at once, the total drawdown would be about 8–10% in a hot market and probably 4–6% in a choppier one. "There's not a reason to be all in, all out." Taking quarter-size positions lets you hold 12 to 16 names instead of four to eight, leg into the ones that work and cut the ones that don't, so you're less likely to miss the hot names. You have to earn the right to chase, and when you do, "just chase it with smaller size" so you can add if it pulls back to where you should have entered, with the stop in the same place.
On Snowflake after its earnings pop, he'd watch the high-volume earnings candle. He'd get long through its high, or if price undercuts its low, on the retest of the base or a recapture of that low, and he'd expect post-earnings drift and chop while the moving averages catch up. He ran fibs from the breakout at 135 to about 177–180, and "the 50% is right in alignment with the low of that high volume candle," November 21. That low is the line in the sand for a short-term trade. If it gets taken out, exit and set an alert, because a reclaim should pull price back toward the candle's high at about 175.
He thinks Amazon has the least to worry about in any Elon feud, with that beef more likely aimed at Microsoft, Google and Meta, and he sees Amazon running to 240–250 "within the next like six to eight months." He floated the idea that each megacap will eventually launch its own token, which the others hoped won't happen. He posted Mobileye a while ago as an island and loves the entry. "I think it hasn't even gotten started," and once it reclaims 25 he thinks it heads back to all-time highs. In January he expects "a good three month" base or a wedge down, something short like 4 to 12 weeks rather than a year-long 2022 meltdown, with the QQQs looking a lot like April through October. His first pick in the hosts' stock-pick contest (captioned "Verve," likely Vertiv) was up about 26%.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said a friend texted him about Tesla calls he'd sold at 350 with the stock at 360. "Getting called away is not the worst thing that can happen," and you can always buy the calls back and roll. His point is that in a possible late-stage cycle you may not want to trust everything as you would mid-cycle. "It's not something that you can just let go and not babysit." He thinks "we're looking more like a 2022." He's left positions on but has "trimmed a lot," is still trimming and has about 50% cash for other investments if the bull keeps roaring. "I just don't think for me it is wise to hold on to speculative plays and losers and things that have ran like crazy already."
On chips, he doesn't think they're bad and isn't dumping every chip stock or profit yet, but the daily action is "concerning," with names up 3% one day, down 5% the next or "bleeding out 1% a day." He has a big AMD position, and "it trades like garbage." He's clear that "I hope what I fear doesn't happen," and he's prepared if it does. The hosts convinced him to get back into TNA last week, and buying it back Tuesday near the close "was the best thing I could have done." He's been less active over the last 12 to 14 months than in years and doesn't want to be caught sitting on his hands. He's not saying the market tanks on January 20, but "buy the election, sell the inauguration" marks a window when he wants to be more active and ready for the next three to 12 months.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP opened with HIMS. The Amazon news hit on an all-time-high breakout in a multi-timeframe bullish setup, and "those are typically liquidity grabs" that can then take it to new highs. It happens about three or four times a year. It undercut everything, but "it did not make a new low," and he called that human behavior more important than any single indicator. He sees the market in "a late stage cycle." Options went from monthly to weekly to daily, "if we get hourly options I suggest you start trimming like crazy," and single-stock ETFs make no sense. Still, "late stage is not three months." He thinks it plays out over years, a cyclical top is still months away, and "I need the evidence first." One rug-pull tell he watches is Kodak, a 25% ripper that day. "All this stuff ends when Kodak goes back to just being a camera business."
He thinks chips are "in a distributive cycle," not for the long term, but as a pair trade and source of cash for names expected to benefit from the new administration. Nvidia and TSM, the leaders, are getting hammered. He expects chips to rotate inside a box and slowly trickle lower for about a month, with the chip and megacap rotation probably ending at the end of December or December OPEX, maybe running into January. His June call was "sell Nvidia, buy Tesla," and Tesla has gone from its April 19 low of 138 to a 361 tag, about 150%, while Nvidia is up about 76% from the same low. Amazon is "your steady Eddie," above all-time highs while Tesla isn't, and he said ego is worse than FOMO: "ego will destroy you in this game." On Mobileye he sees "too many distribution monthly candles" to get excited. He thinks it has bottomed but expects another shot at the low range, and he pointed viewers to banana3 on X for detailed coverage.
His contest pick, Wayfair, "looks phenomenal." The monthly candle shows accumulation, a three-year downtrend is breaking this week, and "it is not an expensive stock." On the 2021 comparisons, he said the stocks behaving like 2021 are sitting at 70–80% discounts. HIMS, for example, is worth about $5.4–5.5 billion with about $1.6–1.7 billion in revenue expected over the coming year, is free-cash-flow positive by about $80 million a quarter and trades at under three times sales. In 2021 Snowflake was at about 100 times sales. The IWM "is designed for failure," since winners graduate to the MDY, QQQs or SPY. It "just after three years took out all-time high," and "that is not euphoric to me."
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