Chapters
00:00 Intro: Everyone's Back
02:39 GP: Rotation Out of Chips, Into Consumer AI
05:45 Netflix: The Bull-Market Leader & the Tyson Fight
08:20 GP: Lam, Microsoft & Semi-Topping Patterns
10:25 GP: How Long the Dispersion Lasts
11:58 Nick: Mag 7, Biotech & Eli Lilly
15:34 Nick: Fintech, Gaming & Cyber
17:08 Ben: Selling Half of Everything
21:46 GP: Microsoft the Canary, but Not There Yet
24:56 Ben: Out of TNA, Tariffs & Small Caps
28:01 Ben: Watching the 2s/10s
30:05 Investing vs. Trading
31:38 First Investments & Penny-Stock Lessons
36:15 Ben: Crypto Research & Speculation
40:51 GP: Four Crypto Charts: Bitcoin, Solana, SUI & Doge
43:30 Ben: Buying Strength, Chainlink & Dot
45:37 GP: Bitcoin to 119 & 203K
46:07 Ben: His 115 Marker & Ethereum
49:49 Alibaba & the China Trade
52:54 OIH, Exxon & Commodities
56:02 GP: Square, Dave & Fintech on Fire
57:02 GP: MicroStrategy's Six Inside Months
58:06 GP: First Solar's 195 Trigger
Market Hours #133 went out live on Monday, November 18, with Ben, Nick and GP, all back on after a missed week. The theme was rotation, which GP called "the lifeblood of the markets." Chips were getting sold while fintech, consumer AI and base breakouts were shining. Ben explained why he's selling about half of what he owns ahead of the inauguration. Nick laid out where he's watching for relative strength, and GP went through his four crypto charts, his Bitcoin targets and a First Solar squeeze setup. They also covered Netflix, Eli Lilly, the 2s/10s, Ethereum, Alibaba, oil, Dave and MicroStrategy.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks the Mag 7 and biotech are the most exposed to current uncertainty, but "I think those will all get sorted out." Apple and Amazon would probably come out less scathed than Google, Meta and Microsoft, so he sees a grind rather than something violent. In biotech, he thinks Moderna and Pfizer could be "the sacrificial lambs" and the rest of the sector a "massive buying opportunity" in the XBI and IBB. Eli Lilly has gone from about 950 to 700. If it comes into the four-year moving average on the monthly, around 560–600, "I'm stepping in," though he'd want a bottoming pattern first, "not going to just like throw a dart out there."
He'd rather see the Mag names step aside and move sideways while the new leaders come in, and he says to just follow relative strength. Last week fintech held up incredibly well, and "if we don't get weeks like last week or even corrective periods we're not going to be able to see where the relative strength lies." His focus areas are fintech, the metaverse and gaming (Roblox, EA, DraftKings) and cybersecurity. He asked whether SentinelOne had gone stage two. The answer was that it's "getting dang close," with an alert at about 30 because "once it rips 30 it's gone." On Exxon, he likes the chart, but it's stuck in a range. Unless you're accumulating at the range lows with a big bull thesis, set an alert at 125 and pay attention as it nears a breakout, "otherwise you're just going to get chopped to pieces." Other energy names are working instead, including alternative energy and "all the nuclear names."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben calls himself "a perma bull at heart," but "I'm going to believe these clowns when they tell me that they're going to do something." A 20% tariff on everything coming into the country "is going to be felt somewhere," including in stock prices. He's selling about half of everything he owns to sit on dry powder and buy when things get low enough, "and that's how true wealth gets made." He's cutting back on SoFi, Tesla, Roblox, Cloudflare and AMD, all with major profits, and the idiom he's following is "buy the election, sell the inauguration," which gives him about a month and a half. He sold about a third of his Tesla at 350 "and I don't regret it." SoFi doubled for him when it got to $14. In crypto, he's converting other coins into Bitcoin or Ethereum or selling and waiting for better prices. He'll still have more than 50% of his money at work, "so I'm happy to be wrong."
He sold the TNA around 53 when it broke down. He doesn't think small caps will be as prosperous as hoped, because tariffs will hurt them most, since small businesses usually can't offer the best pricing. He's also watching the 2s and 10s for a possible yield-curve re-inversion, which "might be a little more problematic" than the first inversion. For crypto research he uses CoinMarketCap. He's become more risk averse and doesn't go searching for moonshot coins. His one speculative name is Shiba Inu, and everything else has some form of utility. Solana is his favorite. He had 115 as his Bitcoin marker. A line connecting the tops sits close by, and past tops have run about 20–30% higher, so 115 is halfway. He wants to be out by then, would love a retest around 100, and is fine missing some upside to diversify into "less loved" altcoins. Solana is "probably the leader in the clubhouse" to be silver to Bitcoin's gold. He's not ready to throw in the towel on Ethereum, which still holds the weekly moving averages and is above the monthly nine, though it's underperforming. He also loves Chainlink, but it isn't as strong. He was in Dot for the staking rewards, but "you can't make up 90% fall off."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that in the summer "the only thing they wanted to buy were chips and the only thing they wanted to sell was everything else." Now it's the reverse chip trade, with base breakouts in names like Affirm, Square, Upstart and Coinbase. His thesis is that money is rotating from hardware AI into consumer AI, visible in Tesla and Apple holding up better. Netflix is still "the bull market leader," and he wouldn't short it over buffering, since tens of millions of live viewers for a Tyson fight (captioned as both "16 million" and "60 million") "is not a shortable offense." Lam Research broke down and is breaking down again. Microsoft, a leader of the AI move, is breaking down on the monthly, and "it all looks like semi-topping patterns." He expects any breakdown to grind like Affirm's 50% summer slide on light volume, not to be violent. He thinks the dispersion runs into mid-December, when people start positioning for 2025.
He's in the camp that it's "just dispersion and rotation" and will reassess in early December. Microsoft is the canary, and Dell looks like a weekly head and shoulders, ASML guided lower and chips are "being sold on every pop," much like Square, Roku, Zoom and Peloton in 2021. "I want to see it first at least on a consecutive week over week basis." He thinks the tariff talk gets walked back "rather quickly." His four crypto charts are Bitcoin, Solana, SUI and Doge. Doge "looks phenomenal on the monthly" and has cleared its 2021 levels, while Ethereum doesn't look good. Bitcoin's 100% extension is about 119, where "you should probably see more money flow into altcoins," and the 261 extension is about 203,000, "probably the top of the cycle."
Fintech "is on fire." He said Square right now is "unreal," and Dave is "breaking out here," retesting the 75–76 pivot since its earnings candle in "a monster accumulative pattern." MicroStrategy at about 140 in September had "six inside months sitting above the pivot," one of the easiest charts with defined risk. He loves First Solar's setup. After the breakdown it's at the 194–195 area, finding support with wicks, and "the trigger here would be 195." Last time it went from about 60–67 to 280, he's looking for a potential 3–4x, and his fibs put the next leg around 1,000–1,100. "I'm not saying that's tomorrow." He said there's nothing in OIH that makes it a great setup, "looks like a distribution pattern," and he doesn't like commodities.
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod