Chapters
00:00 Intro: How Bullish Are You Now?
01:05 GP: Rotation & Why Nvidia Needs to Flush
03:13 GP: The 2022 Template, Tesla & Apple's Late Flush
06:20 GP: ASML & Mobileye Are Already Bottoming
07:22 GP: Wave 1, Wave 2 & Human Psychology
09:27 GP: AMD's 121.83 Risk-to-Reward
11:01 Ben: Fishing for AMD Near 121
13:04 Nick: 1,000 Names Red & the Rubber Band
15:08 Ben: 30–35% Cash Into the Fed
18:11 Nick: A Q1 Correction Would Be Welcome
18:43 GP: SPX 5,500 Is Still Buyable & SPY 770
21:51 GP: Tesla's Earnings Rerating
23:27 Fear, AI & the Economy
26:38 Ben: Forced 401(k) Investing & the Wealth Transfer
29:42 2018 or 2022?
29:59 GP: Housing & Distributing at 770
32:49 What Would You Never Sell?
37:28 Nick: Autonomy, Cargo First & Quantum
39:00 Be Careful With the Quantum Names
42:06 MicroStrategy: 340s, 370 & 445
44:11 GP: Spidey Senses on Saylor & Selling MSTR Calls
46:47 Bitcoin at 106K, Dominance & Shorts
49:21 Ben: Solana at 228–230 & Alt Season
53:00 Ben: Market-Cap Math on Meme Coins
55:03 When Does a Bull Market Start?
57:05 GP: Tesla's Breakout & March 400 Calls
1:00:42 GP: Coinbase's Range & Alt Season
1:02:43 Nick: Coinbase to 500+ & Robinhood
Market Hours #136 went out live on Tuesday, December 17, the day before the Fed, with Ben, Nick and GP. Nick asked GP how bullish he is now. GP said you're seeing rotation, chips are bottoming, and Nvidia should "just flush" so the sector can run. He laid out a long-range path to SPY 770 with a 2022-style drop along the way. Nick saw a rubber band stretched by a wildly oversold breadth reading. Ben sat at 30–35% cash and expects a correction in a month or two. They also covered AMD's risk-to-reward, Tesla's earnings rerating and GP's March calls, forced 401(k) investing, the one stock they'd never sell, the quantum craze, MicroStrategy and Saylor, Solana and meme coins, and Coinbase.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick has about 1,400 names on his general watch list, and about 1,000 were red that day. The McClellan oscillator, tied to the NYSE, was near -200, "wildly oversold," while the SPY and QQQs sat at all-time highs and the IWM and Dow pulled back. "It feels to me like there's a rubber band being stretched and we're about ready to just... unleash." Relative-strength leaders in AI, quantum and megacaps keep performing. He sold out of a name captioned "Kors CRZ" but immediately added to others, so "I'm trying to tame myself." He thinks a correction or chop in Q1 "would absolutely be welcomed" to set up bases and base retests, with the strongest names flagging sideways. For a stock he'd never sell, he picked Elon via Tesla or DXYZ, though GP warned that DXYZ isn't what he thinks it is as SpaceX exposure. He thinks autonomy hits cargo and commercial first, then semis and trains, and that quantum computing will accelerate everything. The quantum names remind him of the crypto miners' pump from $4–5 to the $50–70s before rolling over. In robotics, he has sold into the moves but is holding runners with stops at a round trip. On MicroStrategy, it's in a range, and he wants higher lows respecting the daily 20. Over about 445–450 changes the picture, and it "definitely looks better at 370" than in the 340s. He thinks Coinbase's monthly chart is "stunning," "a massive inverse head and shoulders" running to 500-plus. In alt season, he expects money to keep pouring into Coinbase and Robinhood.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said he's "a large shareholder in AMD" with a lot of his net worth in it. He's looking to fish around 121, but if it turns up, "I'm just going to buy higher" and hold. He noted that either Druckenmiller or Paul Tudor Jones said they regret dumping Nvidia early. He's "the more cautious one" at 30–35% cash, still enjoying the ride, but with flat 2s and 10s and a Fed meeting that week, he doesn't see a parabolic rubber band. "If the Fed cuts rates again, I think we're probably... a month or two away from seeing some type of correction," and that's when he'll deploy more cash. He liked the Mobileye and SoftBank charts but didn't pull the trigger and won't chase. He thinks the middle class is feeling poorer from higher prices. One thing that could break his dip thesis is a change he thinks starts next month that forces 401(k) participation, starting at 1% and building to 10%, plus the Boomer wealth transfer. He expects a January effect, and any correction in the next quarter or two shouldn't last. He's "in the camp that it's going to be more [like] 2018 than... 2022." At GP's 770, "I'm selling it all."
On MicroStrategy, he'd play it off the weekly 9 and might take a stab in the 340s. For Bitcoin exposure, though, "I just buy Bitcoin," because the leverage cuts both ways. He thinks Coinbase's lag is an altcoin story and finds MicroStrategy's performance "more fishy." Bitcoin was near 106,000 after tagging about 108,000 overnight and running hot. Bitcoin dominance has taken a hit for the month, and when shorts hit his bands they get hammered. He expects another flush but sees a range. Solana is "so coiled" on the daily and needs to break 228 and then 230: "then I think she's gone and... we're into a full altcoin season." He thinks Solana is surpassing Ethereum as number two and will lift the meme coins built on it, like Pepe and Floki. He's nearly at "an uncomfortable amount" of Solana. He likes Algorand for its quantum resistance. He has sold more of his SHIB because market cap determines what can 5x or 10x: "I'm a Pepe guy."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said the question is whether you're bullish the right sector. "I don't know why they can't just let [Nvidia] flush." Until dip buyers get slapped, the sector won't hit despair, and he thinks the bottom comes within days. In 2022, Tesla went from $296 to $100 in two months, a 61.9% retracement, and when Tesla and Apple finally flushed, "you got a sustainable... rally." Chips not named Nvidia or Broadcom were destroyed, and Marvell, Micron, ASML and Mobileye are already bottoming. Using human psychology rather than Elliott Wave, he said Nvidia's wave 1 was the usual 8–10x, wave 2 is a 23–38% retracement as early investors like Druckenmiller cash out, and wave 3 brings shallow pullbacks and steady climbing. AMD is "one of the greatest risk to reward spots in chips." It never got the love, and 121.83 is where it peaked in 2021–22 and bottomed recently. That's "four to six points down and well over 100 points up," and he expects it to go beyond all-time highs, though not in a month.
He thinks the market may get a blowoff into February and then a 10% correction, natural at a 100% extension. Even 5,500, or 5,400 on an overshoot, "is still buyable." "The SPY is going to 770," the 161% extension from the 2022 double bottom that he posted in February 2023. Along the way comes a 2022-type correction, then a final chaser leg to a 770–800 double top, and "there's going to be a lot of frustrated... longs." Tesla "underperformed for three years" and is in an earnings rerating, which happens every four to six years, because gross margins bottomed in October. He thinks AI eventually turning bad for jobs, with UBI talk, brings the bigger correction. Ben's forced-401(k) point strengthens his cycle-top view: it's liquidity for distribution, so at 770 he's "most likely going to be liquidating... almost everything," maybe except Tesla, which he has held since 2014, mostly in a Roth. He thinks the wealth transfer will be negative for housing. Be careful with the quantum names, some with about $27,000 in annual revenue, which he compared to the 2021 SPACs and EVs. He avoids them for his mental health.
On MicroStrategy, "my Spidey senses are saying scam." He asked why the $42 billion raise came at $90,000–100,000 Bitcoin rather than $40,000–50,000. He sees it as "a premium seller['s] dream": the 392 calls a few days out paid about $15, roughly 4%, but it's not a full-port trade. He asked why Coinbase is underperforming crypto. The bull market starts when prior all-time highs are reclaimed, not at the bottom, because index investors stay underwater until then. "A lot of people are underestimating where Tesla can go." Since June he's been talking about the Nvidia-versus-Tesla pair trade unwinding. He's long Tesla March 400 calls bought near $3, now over $10, and isn't selling. In the month after an all-time-high breakout, Tesla gained 42% in 2013 and 55% in 2019. A 2–4x from 414 is "highly possible," which puts 1,200–1,300 in view, with a retest of 414 and eventually a 50–60% correction along the way. Coinbase is up about 380% in a year and has rotated between 306, 314 and 323 for six weeks. It makes its money on transaction fees, so alt season is its catalyst, and Robinhood's crypto fees are inching up too.
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