Chapters
00:00 Intro: Christmas Eve Show
02:23 Nick: No Follow-Through After the Fed Bar
04:58 Nick: Defensive Into January & the Most Oversold Reading of the Year
08:05 GP: The Biggest OPEX of the Year & a Flow-Driven Market
10:14 GP Is Fully Out of His Netflix Trade
13:50 GP: Unity, AMD & Disney for 2025–26
15:20 Nick: How He Works a 1,600-Name Watch List
21:27 The Fed's First Move Was the False Move
22:28 Crowdsourcing Charts From FinTwit
28:06 Nick Signs Off & GP's Daily Chart Routine
30:09 GP: AMD's 121.83 Pivot & the 200-Week
33:13 Ben: AMD at 110 & 120–125
35:50 GP: The VIX Spike & 2017's Low Volatility
37:53 GP: A Steady Grind Higher Into 2025
42:40 Crypto: Accumulation in the Alts
44:14 Ben: Solana Replacing Ethereum
46:46 Dogecoin & In-N-Out
47:19 GP on Michael Saylor
54:38 Bitcoin's December 5 Volatility Candle
56:41 Ben: Bitcoin Needs 99K
1:00:22 Ben's HBAR Regret
1:00:53 GP: StockTwits' No. 2 Most-Added OG User
1:03:32 Ben: The IWM Is Bound to Fail
1:09:15 GP: Trapped Buyers & February IWM Calls
1:13:32 Where Is the Handle Low?
1:17:08 Fantasy Football & Holiday Plans
Market Hours #137 went out live on Christmas Eve, Tuesday, December 24, with Ben, Nick and GP. Nick left about 28 minutes in. It followed the Fed-day flush, which GP noted came on the biggest OPEX of the year. Nick didn't see follow-through and wants to stay a little defensive into January, while GP said flow still favors the upside into January. GP revealed he's fully out of his Netflix trade after a 4x-plus return, and he walked through AMD's pivot and 200-week. Nick explained how he works a 1,600-name watch list. Later they covered 2017's low volatility as a template for 2025, crypto and Solana versus Ethereum, GP's frustration with Michael Saylor, Bitcoin's key levels, and a long IWM debate between Ben and GP.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the Fed-day bar was nasty, but after a bar like that he looks for follow-through, and the QQQs barely took it out. Friday's gap down that powered higher all session "was your signal." He'd prefer to see the market move sideways or chop a bit, then put in "another like high volume big ripper bar." Nasty Nate's 61.8% retracement on the SPY was around 597–598, and the 50-day around 594, both blown through. Nick watches the 50: "once we reclaim the 50, I'm like, all right, game's on." Seasonally, he thinks "it still makes sense to be a little defensive and probably selling into this" for the first couple of weeks of the year, and he expects sideways action or a correction from January through March. The McClellan oscillator hit its most oversold reading of the year, and 50–70% of his main watch list had been red for about three weeks, so the rally from Friday wasn't a surprise. "I'm a trail stopper, so the market's got to force me out."
He goes through all 1,600 names manually when he has to: "There is nothing like screen time and chart time." After the close he sorts by price and spends time on anything over $100, which he associates with leaders. His go-to short-term trades are pricier stocks where he can catch a 20–60 point move. Intraday he toggles between net change and percent change, takes notes on what keeps showing up, and watches where green meets red for a feel for momentum. That's how the quantum names got on his radar. He still uses the first 60-minute range from his day-trading days to judge trend, reversal or trend-down days. The Fed's "first move is usually the false move" played out, which "couldn't have [been] a better reaction" for longer-term bulls, but you still obey your stops. He keeps a watch list labeled FinTwit and lets the crowd do the work. He mentioned an author who tracks how many stocks on his list are green each day like an indicator.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said, "As a long-term shareholder," calling AMD a turd a couple of weeks ago was really a wish to add more. His lowest level was around 110, and he thinks the 120–125 area "makes total sense," though it might revisit near term. He's still very invested. He keeps a 200-name Excel watch list because "1,400, 1,600 names... your eyes start to cross." In crypto, he's a longtime ETH holder, but "I just keep coming back to Solana is going to replace it." Bitcoin dominance is waning while ETH stays weak, and he thinks there's less upside in ETH than in other names. He agreed Saylor's recent buying, about a quarter of MicroStrategy's holdings in six to eight weeks, isn't his style: "I want to buy lower when I can buy lower." He no longer owns MicroStrategy but owns Coinbase, and he wants it to "stop being a little turd." On Bitcoin, about 98,500 on the 4-hour is a big level. "Bitcoin needs to be above 99 quick fast in a hurry," or it retests 92,000, and below 92,000 "you're going to have a lot of people bailing out." Total crypto market cap needs to get to about $3.4 trillion. He's been kicking himself for leaving HBAR but rotated into LINK and Uniswap.
On small caps, he said the IWM is "a collection of stocks that is bound to fail" and packed with financials, and it fits his "there's going to be some pain" thesis. Small businesses are buying 2025 inventory amid tariff uncertainty without the strength of larger companies. His IWM channel roadmap from about 18 months ago has played out "to the letter." He wouldn't be surprised by a pullback into the 190s, and it'll find the bottom of its channel somewhere. He sold the rest of his TNA trade: "I have a better stomach sitting and watching the volatility of my crypto portfolio than I do the IWM." He'd want it to clear the volume shelf before getting active, and then only as a short-term trade. He sees roughly four points of upside against risk down to about 207–208. He eyeballs the handle low around 210, and if the IWM doesn't work here, "I'm never looking at this again."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said nobody expected the Fed-day bar, which was already oversold and landed on "the largest OPEX of the year." "It is a flow-driven market," and flow is supportive into January. "The only thing you should be trading is Tesla" because it gives follow-through, while names like Roblox go sideways. Apple and Netflix, "the market leader and the bull market leader," closed at all-time highs on Christmas Eve, though only a handful of names are participating. He's fully out of his Netflix trading position. His lowest buy was 166, with an average around 206, and his measured move was 920. It hit, and he set a stop that took him out near 917. The upside might be around 1,100, but with a 4x-plus return "it's not worth risking two to 300 points." That's not bearish: he still has long-held shares and just sees better opportunities. He likes Unity and Disney and thinks "AMD is going to lead chips in 2025." He'll post his 2025–26 list of about 25 names, focused on four or five, in the last week of the year. He warned to take profits in topping names like Wingstop, UNH in a distribution pattern, and Palantir starting to show distribution. Energy (XOM, XLE, OXY) is still just sitting.
He looks at the 30 Dow components, the top 10 of the QQQs and SPY, and the 52-week highs and lows nearly daily, about 50–60 charts. AMD couldn't find a buyer at its 121.83 pivot during OPEX, and right underneath sit a base on declining volume and the 200-week simple moving average, "a point where people look for entries" in a bull market. The weekly candle showed sellers were done, and once it takes out last week's pivot high, "most likely this continues for a couple weeks." People asking for 90 should explain their chart, because that's "back to before any of the AI stuff," and he thinks AMD outperforms Nvidia. The 74–75% VIX spike just meant someone was offside. In 2017, Trump's first year, the VIX hit historic lows under 10 in "a grind higher step by step," and he expects 2025 to be a similar steady grind with "traders not being rewarded but longs being rewarded." His final push-up target is around 7,714, with the volatility coming later in the term.
In crypto, he thinks the alts are being shaken out to accumulate, and the moves will be "fairly damn epic," naming SOL, SUI and ZRX. He's annoyed with Michael Saylor. He has no issue with the bullishness, but "where were you so vocal when... Bitcoin was sitting at 60 grand," or 48,000 in August, instead of raising capital and making shareholders pay top dollar now. "It reeks of a pumper." On Bitcoin, it has stayed inside the December 5 volatility candle, holding the 50-day. The 4-hour risks a death cross, but the 2-hour is curling up, so "it has to make a move within the next week." His level is the close of that candle, around 96,200. StockTwits named him the second most-added OG user of 2024, behind Wall Street Jesus, after 11 years on the platform. On the IWM, he sees buyers trapped since 2021 near a huge volume shelf, and once they're at breakeven, "that's usually when the... trade becomes like Adonis." His January calls are "essentially zero," but he's long February 245 calls at about $1.40, a 10% move in two months, "really cheap." It filled the election gap and held, a double bottom at the election low. He sees a handle near the 38.2% retracement around 213 and a measured move to about 270.
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