Chapters
00:00 Intro: New Year's Eve, Nick Out Sick
03:02 Fantasy Football & Nasty Nate's ABC Down
04:41 GP: Sideways Since July & a Flow-Driven Market
08:05 GP: Fed Waffling & a Stalemate
09:08 GP: Volatility Hits Lows in 2025
12:24 GP: Celsius & Reddit to Close the Year
14:07 GP: Opening Bids Get Wrecked
15:13 Ben: Another Leg or Two Down
16:53 Ben: The 10-Year & a 2025 Recession Worry
19:39 GP vs. Ben on the 10-Year Chart
22:49 TLT: Sideways Since 2003
25:03 Meta & Tesla Going Nowhere
26:39 GP: Tesla's Weekly Golden Cross
28:19 Ben: COIN Shares From $55 & Buying Crypto Instead
30:33 MicroStrategy's Failed Yearly Breakout
33:10 COIN's 10x From 31 to 324
35:20 Ben: Own the Asset, Not the Proxy
37:38 Does the Incoming Administration Help Crypto?
39:54 GP: Pivots Getting Slapped & Financials Breaking Out
43:40 GP: AMD, the Most Miserable Stock
45:57 First Solar's 160s
46:28 AMD's 200-Day & Yearly Pivot Fails
49:13 MARA, LRCX & Sloppy Bottoms
52:29 Why Guess the Bottom?
55:08 Ben: Not Adding AMD Here
59:29 Tranches, Stops & Discipline
1:02:41 GP: Have a Plan for 2025
1:06:19 New Year's Resolutions
Market Hours #138 went out live on Tuesday, December 31, the last day of 2024, with Ben and GP. Nick was out sick. The QQQs had pulled back to the 50-day and 9-week near 513, little changed from the July high around 503–504, and GP said a light-volume, flow-driven market has gone "pretty much sideways for six months." Ben, an "unabashed seller" for six weeks, expects another leg or two down and is worried about a 2025 recession as the 10-year rises. They debated the 10-year and TLT, Tesla's weekly golden cross, Coinbase and MicroStrategy versus owning crypto directly, financials breaking out, AMD's miserable year, and "why guess the bottom" when bottom fishing in quality names can pay off. They closed with plans and resolutions for 2025.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said their friend Nasty Nate has joined him in the "down camp" with an ABC correction in progress. The QQQs stopped on the 50-day and were sitting on the 9-week. He thinks December's volatility, with a shooting star on heavier volume in a light month, says "the market wants to go lower," though not necessarily to the trendline around 490. "I've been an unabashed seller on almost every opportunity I've had," and he expects "another leg or two down." With the 10-year near 4.5% and the 2-year falling, the yield curve has uninverted again, which puts him "more in the camp of we're going to have a 2025 recession." He hates making that call and doesn't expect a 2022 redo. He reads the 10-year chart as a breakout that could approach 5%. "If I were playing this as a stock, I would set my stop below 4.3 and play it to 4.9."
He still holds Coinbase shares from around $55 and isn't adding. For more exposure "I'll just buy more crypto, which I have been doing," rather than equities, because "I would rather own the asset than be tied to a company." COIN lost the 9-week and was coming into about 233, where the tight 20 and 50 usually act as support. Losing that would put the 161 line in view. He doesn't see the appeal of MicroStrategy at these levels, with its RSI rolling over, and he has never owned it. On the Bitcoin daily, it keeps getting "snuffed out on the nine." He said GP had him bulled up on Tesla the week before and he threw a bid in, "you big dummy, gotta stick to your gut." He sold his Wells Fargo at $20 "way too soon." On AMD, "at some point the bleeding has to stop." The 200-day near 114 may be a place for a bid. He's one of the bigger AMD bulls, with a lot of his net worth in it at a low cost basis, but "it would be irresponsible" to put 10% of his accumulated cash into it here. LRCX may be carving a bottom, but "bottoms are often sloppy." His 2025 goal is to work the same amount as in 2024 but have his best year on record, beating his 77% year from a couple of years ago, by planning entries and allocating gradually instead of being "full port all the time." He wants to stop letting losses get too big.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that apart from individual winners, "overall markets have not really budged since July." The election delivered about 10%, but the market is up only about 2% in six months, and it is "no longer... driven by organic buying... it's flow driven." The 10-year keeps moving opposite of the Fed, the dollar is strong, and the VIX popped 75% for no reason. The Fed's shifting messages from September to December have left housing and the deal market in a stalemate. His contrarian call is that "volatility will hit the lowest it's ever hit next year," like 2017, Trump's first year, with volatility rising later in the term. Short term, he doesn't have a read: the ABC correction hasn't made a new low, and the biggest volume came on the bottom day. Opening bids keep getting wrecked on low volume. To finish the year he's watching relative strength in Celsius and Reddit, which had been on his watch list since summer, though Ben worried about a "Batman" pattern on Reddit.
He wouldn't buy the 10-year chart on its own: lower highs since the 5.01 peak in October 2023, falling volume on each push and fading RSI and MACD. TLT "looks like a dumpster fire," sideways since 2022 and at 2003 levels, so "bonds have no direction." Tesla, Meta and others have gone sideways too. Tesla's weekly golden cross is setting up, and "weakness into these weekly golden crosses are usually pretty solid buying opportunities," with monthly and quarterly MACD crosses too. "Everyone is expecting Tesla to break out in 2025, so my prediction is I think it does too," though a yearly close below 444.50 would be a failed pivot. He told his group to stay away from MicroStrategy until it finds footing. It's a failed yearly breakout of 331, a possible spring, and it seems to be leading Bitcoin into closes. Coinbase went from 31 to 324, "a 10x in 2 years," so expect profit-taking. He said Saylor was absent in the 50s and 60s and is buying near $100,000. A strategic reserve is already expected, so crypto needs a surprise for the next leg.
All year, "things are getting to pivots and then getting slapped," which is unusual for a 20–30% up year. But financials are the last sector to participate in secular bulls, and they're just starting to break out after a two-year consolidation above the 2008 highs. The XLF is at about 48 against a 2008 high of 31.9, and Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citi are setting up. "I think long term, we're still in a pretty good cycle." AMD is "the most miserable stock on the planet," putting in a red year in an AI boom. It's closing the year below its 121.83 pivot, Hims below its all-time-high pivot despite 77% growth, and Tesla below 444.50. On "why guess the bottom," he said when you get it right "it can be hella lucrative": Coinbase at $55 gained 600% in two years, Tesla at 122 is up 200–300%, and Netflix at 160 after the 75% drop came back to 900. AMD is under a $200 billion market cap on about $26–28 billion in revenue, so "fundamentals are starting to make sense." Bottom-fish only good companies, not cash burners like Nikola or Lucid, and buy in tranches 10–20% apart instead of stacking buys in one 5% range, as Cookie says. His investing account is up over 40% for 2024 because he had a plan, and he's building one for 2025 from quarterly, monthly and yearly charts. His resolution is to travel more, take time off from the markets and step back from social posting.
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