Chapters
00:00 Intro: GP's 10,000 Push-Up Challenge
02:12 Nick: Core Longs, Core Size & QQQ 520
05:49 Ben: Bearish for Six to Eight Weeks, Eyeing 480–490
07:57 GP: Chop Since July & the 2015–16 Analog
09:39 GP: IWM Is Setting Up
11:14 GP: Tied to the Index & the January OPEX 5,806 Level
13:55 Ben: 50% Cash, a Mobileye Bounce & a Fully Valued Market
16:05 IWM, Regionals & Goldman
18:20 AMD's Bottoming Process
21:03 Nick: AMD at the Low End of the Wedge
23:16 Quantum, Robotics & Drone Froth
24:22 Ben: Adding AMD in the 110s, Proof at 124
26:35 GP: Three Capitulation Candles & the 2022 Analog
30:55 GP Is Long AMD on Multiple Fronts
31:58 AMDL & SOXL
34:16 Bottoms Take Time: 114.50 & Sizing Over Stops
35:55 Why the 90s May Not Come
37:31 Uber: The 61 Level
39:41 Robotaxis: A Rising Tide for Uber & Tesla
41:24 Ben: Pfizer, Mobileye & an Uber Range
43:03 Ben's 420 Tesla Puts
44:46 GP: Tesla's Monthly Backtest
47:59 Tesla to 1,000? & the Elon Cycle
52:20 Coinbase & Bitcoin Above 97.7K
56:16 GP: Alibaba June 120 Calls
59:02 No More January LEAPS
Market Hours #140 streamed live on Wednesday, January 15, a day later than usual. Ben and GP started the show, and Nick joined a few minutes in and left early, around the half hour. The QQQs gapped up to about the post-election level after several weak sessions. Nick said breakouts aren't being rewarded, Ben stayed cautious through Q1 with about half his account in cash, and GP said the chop since July looks like 2015–16, with IWM setting up and higher prices likely into spring. Most of the show was about AMD's "bottoming process." They also covered Uber and robotaxis, Tesla's monthly backtest and "the Elon cycle," Coinbase versus Bitcoin, and GP's Alibaba call trade. GP also started a 10,000-push-up challenge for the year, about 30 a day.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick doesn't think it pays to be overly aggressive. Swing traders should be in their core longs at core size, not max long, because "it's just not being rewarded right now." If breakouts aren't working and you're still a bull, buy pullbacks to breakouts, to moving averages, or to the low end of a range. On the QQQ daily, both the 10 and 20 are rolling over. A break above about 520 would make him say "maybe it is time to get aggressive again," while a roll lower probably fills the gap in the mid-480s. On the weekly, price was back above the 10-week, or 50-day, after undercutting the 20-week and bouncing, and the monthly is still an uptrend. The lack of follow-through after the big December 18 bar "leads me to believe that we're going to break higher," but let price decide. He liked that AMD was participating that day. It sits at the low end of a massive descending wedge on the weekly, took out the 118 low in a 120–130 range, and he wants a push above 118.50. It's "not my trade," but for a long-term holder, sitting on the four-year moving average is where he'd add, though the monthly MACD isn't stretched yet. He thinks the quantum, robotics and drone names had their froth wiped out, and if the market weakens, those are where shorts will likely reload.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said he has been bearish for six to eight weeks, meaning selling, not calling for a 2022-style bear market. He still sees the 480–490 gap on the QQQs as reasonable and is "not terribly optimistic about the first quarter." He wants to see how things look coming out of January. He got to about 50% cash a couple of weeks earlier and has nibbled since. He bought Mobileye on its CES drop as a bounce trade, not a long-term hold, and is already up from buying two days of dips. He wants to be clear he isn't a permabear: "I just feel like the market is fully valued." The QQQs were up only about 0.29% in December and 0.94% so far in January, and a pullback to the monthly 9 EMA near 486–490 would "scrape some of the cream off the top." He thinks it's still "sell all rips," with regional banks and many IWM names showing it, even as big financials like Goldman jumped after bank earnings.
He's very long AMD, one of his biggest positions. He would love to add in the 110s, but the weekly shows a failed 9-week and an island reversal, so it needs to clear and hold about 124 before he puts much behind it. He also holds SOXL and likes the RSI crossover and bunched moving averages. He could buy shares near 120 and add above 124, but doesn't want to put money to work too soon. He thinks AMD probably undercuts its recent low near 110–112, the May and October 2023 lows. He's rebalancing by selling rips and nibbling at Pfizer for the dividend and at Mobileye, with sell orders about 10% higher. He doesn't own Uber but would "buy 65 and sell 71" while it's range-bound, with a stop around 64.61. He sold Tesla 420 puts weeks ago hoping to get assigned and joked that he could have just bought at 380–390. He is "a very vocal critic of Elon" but agreed that the latest SEC suit and headlines follow "the same playbook every time." On Coinbase, he thinks Bitcoin is "on the verge of going much higher," and a weekly close above about 97,700 means "full yeet mode," with Coinbase eventually getting "another 30% move."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "breakouts are not being rewarded, nor are breakdowns." It's resistance to support, "algorithmic... flow based," and "we've gone nowhere since July." It reminds him of 2015–16, when the SPY broke out of its 2000/2008 double top and then consolidated for about 18 months, though this cycle is shorter. The SPX hit its 100% fib extension "bang on," and chopping around there is normal. Meanwhile IWM is setting up again: small caps "are miserable on a trading basis until they trend." He expects "much higher prices" and a good rally into March, possibly until the second or third quarter, before a bigger correction. Stocks are tied to the index right now, which he sees as options flow. Last January the SPX closed OPEX at 4,839, and the usual 20%-out-of-the-money call selling puts that at about 5,806. It came right back to 5,805, "typical January OPEX premium collection," which should unwind by Friday.
He said AMD fell from 227 to about 121, retested it, then printed three capitulation candles, about 12–13% down in three days after already being down nearly 50%. "That signals that capitulation has happened" on volume and sentiment. It doesn't mean an instant bottom, "but this is the bottoming process." A move over 124 confirms it. Until then, use lower size and wider stops, sizing positions instead of setting stops to protect "mental capital." The pivot low is about 114.50. His template is the QQQs' May–June 2022 three-day flush. That's when he started his Netflix position. He's long AMD "on multiple fronts," with LEAPS, shares and sold puts, and thinks it outperforms Nvidia this year. Leveraged AMDL isn't for chop because of decay. So many people are waiting for the 90s "is the exact reason why I don't think you're getting 90s." Affirm had a roughly 20-point drop on almost no volume, backtesting its breakout near 53. That's corrective action, and he'll worry only if it fails on higher volume.
On Uber, he said the roughly 25% drop on Tesla's robotaxi news was the final leg out. It double-topped and retested the 61 level from the big December 14, 2023 volume bar, and now it's pushing higher. Robotaxis are "a rising tide," so treating Uber and Tesla as a pair trade "makes no sense," though Uber did hit the 50-day and get rejected. On Tesla's monthly, the January dip tagged about 373.04 against the 2021 breakout candle high of 371.74, "a monthly back test," while the weekly holds its 10 EMA and the wicks sit at the last breakaway gap. He thinks it's "going much higher" and that 1,000 isn't unfathomable. He described "the Elon cycle": when Elon's ego is on blast, trim, and when the media piles on and he refocuses, the stock jumps. On Alibaba, "the most hated sector," he bought June 120 calls at about 1.27. He has no stop and instead sized the calls to what he'd risk on shares. It's a near repeat of a 2023 trade where he sold 120 calls into a big gap up, and he's no longer buying January LEAPS because of how price gets treated into January.
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod