Chapters
00:00 Intro: Spy, QQQ & Tesla
03:43 GP: Tesla's Earnings Setup
06:51 Tesla Options Flow: 2026–27 Calls vs. 215 Puts
08:54 Ben: Done With Tesla
19:41 GP: Sideways Isn't a Downtrend & the DeepSeek Rotation
20:45 GP Adds AMD After the 115.54 Undercut
21:45 Affirm & GP's Nvidia Short
23:52 Software on a Bid: Twilio, Okta & XYZ
25:58 GP: Take COVID Out & It's a 10-Year Base
28:32 GP: SPX 10,000
30:37 Roblox: GP's Fifth-Largest Holding
32:42 Ben: SentinelOne Is Getting Up Off the Mat
37:56 Ben's Mobileye & GP's Volume Read
45:15 Ambarella's 10-Year Base
48:19 China & Alibaba
50:24 Ben: The Bear Starts Putting Money to Work
51:57 GP: Secondary Breakouts in Affirm, Upstart & Redfin
54:35 Ben Is Back in Rivian
59:12 DoorDash & Sea
1:01:45 GP's Roku Chart Without COVID
1:05:31 Devil's Advocate: How Many Knocks Before It Fails?
1:07:04 Apple Isn't Dying, It's Rotating
1:10:07 Next Week: Cookie_M
Market Hours #141 went out live on Tuesday, January 28, with Ben and GP. Nick was absent. It came the day after the DeepSeek selloff, which GP called "the same" as the yen-carry flush: forced rotation out of the crowded names into bases. GP previewed Tesla's earnings with deliveries, energy storage and options flow, while Ben explained why he's done with Tesla. GP made the case that if you remove the COVID period from the charts, many names have been in 10-year bases, including Square, now XYZ, and Roku. They also covered Roblox, SentinelOne, Mobileye, Ambarella, Alibaba, Redfin and Rivian, and why "Apple's gonna die" keeps being wrong. Ben announced that Cookie_M would be on the next week, at the market open on February 4.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said he's out of Tesla because of Elon's conduct, not because of the business. He separately said the stock looks bearish: "We're sitting on the nine weekly. RSI is already crossing over to the downside. I don't see this as a favorable setup." He said his Amazon position is also "up for grabs." SentinelOne (S) "is just getting up off the mat," and he'd be surprised if it doesn't go soon. It was "born with AI and automation in mind for security," so it either runs on its own or gets bought out. "Every earnings disappointment has been the buy of a lifetime," near 14 and 20, and he pointed to heavy after-hours buying on its late-May earnings selloff. His puts at 22 didn't fill, so he bought shares at 23. "I love when a stock is hated" if the thesis hasn't changed, like SoFi. He bought Mobileye this year and still has high conviction. He played down the CES drop of 10%, 13% and 7% on consecutive days because "nothing fundamentally changed." He's building a base above 15 and has traded shares between the 15s and 17s while keeping his lowest-cost lots.
He said he has been "the bear of our little friendly trio" and is selling a lot of puts. Now he's "starting to put a little more money to work." The DeepSeek scare "did remind me of the yen carry trade," and anyone with cash "should probably be putting some of it to work" in that selloff. He's back in Rivian after picking some up around $10. The moving averages are coiled, and he wants a move above 14 to add more. He sees it as a hedge to Tesla, since there "has to be a practical truck and SUV for the electric market," and if it reaches profitability, "it's going to double overnight." He thinks Cookie_M is in his camp that the market is "fairly valued" right now. He was happy with the 5% overreaction between sessions: "I look for overreaction."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that for six weeks Tesla has been waiting on earnings. Using last quarter's selling price and its lowest-ever cost per vehicle, and with deliveries up from about 465,000 to 495,000 quarter over quarter and energy storage up from 6.9 to 11 GWh, he thinks "the earnings will be good," though the reaction is a coin flip. Tesla needs to keep last quarter's margin expansion going. On flow, he has seen $2–4 million blocks of January 2026 and 2027 calls near the money. The much-discussed February 215 puts were "a $600,000 bet... chump change." He said there's been heavy accumulation at the lows, and "eight, 12 months out this thing is going to be much higher." The market has been sideways for eight months with "no downtrend," and the NQ tagged its July highs. The DeepSeek selloff, like the yen carry trade, was "people... being forced out of their safety positions" and into other sectors. He expected the AMD undercut of 115.54 and "added a few shares" to his very long position. Affirm tagged its prior low on light volume before the yen carry trade and then went from about 21 to 70. He has been "a very frustrated short in Nvidia for four months." He thinks it goes lower short term but not "back to like 40," and called it the second-biggest distribution day in nine or ten months.
Software was on a two-day bid, including SNOW, MDB, Salesforce, Monday.com, Okta and Zscaler, and Twilio got a 20% day after its investor day. Take COVID out of the charts and Square (now XYZ), PayPal, Paycom, Roku and Disney are back at 2017–19 prices: "it's a 10-year base," a "lost decade," and the COVID move came on almost no volume. He thinks the cycle ends with "SPX 10,000." The S&P gained nearly 2,100% from 1974 to 1998, but only about 372% from January 1999 to that Friday. Roblox reminds him of Coinbase near 52 in 2023, when he bought LEAPS. Roblox is his fifth-largest holding, and he'd like to add in the lower 60s. On Mobileye, last quarter had its heaviest volume ever, and the CES-day 30-minute bar was the heaviest since about October. That showed buyers at support, and the August low area has held for weeks. It "may take a year." Mobileye and Ambarella are consumer-facing AI chip plays, part of the second cycle where AI is implemented rather than built out, which is also why he owns AMD. Ambarella's 10-year base would be a 175% move to get back to 206, though it "trades like complete utter garbage 97% of the time." Alibaba went up about 220% in Trump's first year, 2017. He has held shares since the 70s.
His general advice was to look at what outperformed from August to October after the yen carry trade, because many of those names, like Affirm and Upstart, are ready for secondary stage-two breakouts after pulling back on low volume. Redfin went from 15 back to 7, "this is what Redfin does." Buying near 8.60 with a target around 18 would be about a 100% move. DoorDash is "good equity," but like Roblox it only grinds, which is hard for an options trader. His devil's-advocate concern is that bases can keep forming while the indexes go nowhere, because the weighting cuts both ways. During the yen carry trade the QQQs dropped about 17% in three weeks, but the red was concentrated in the mega caps. Apple was up about $9 on the DeepSeek day: "Apple is not going to die... it's gonna rotate."
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