Chapters
00:00 Intro: Summer in New Zealand, -10 in Minnesota
02:36 GP: Tesla Isn't Even in Panic Mode
05:45 Nick: Tesla's 30-Week Retest & the Candle He Wants
10:26 GP: 13.6% Margins & the Base Near 150
14:38 Nick: Knife Orders at 300 & 280, Out Under 270
19:15 GP: Tesla Ruins Everyone
21:20 The Indexes: A Beach Ball Underwater
24:29 Just Buy the Index?
25:32 Is Apple an Index Protector?
27:38 Drones, ACHR & the Cloud Names
30:47 Salesforce, Palantir & Local Tops
32:52 Unity & GP Out of Roblox
36:27 Nick's Roblox Trade, Stop 59
38:02 COIN to 354? Try IBKR & Schwab
40:37 A Normal Correction Is 10–20%
41:08 Insurers, Root & the DAX
44:17 GP: What Tesla's Earnings Really Said
45:52 Nick: Indexes, DCA & Segregated Accounts
53:47 Joby vs. ACHR
55:19 Datadog vs. MongoDB
56:20 Magnite & Digital Turbine
57:54 SMCI, Broadcom & Intel
58:56 Cisco's Forever Base & the IBM Playbook
1:02:35 AMD, FSLR or China?
1:04:39 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #143 went out live on Tuesday, February 11, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP called in from New Zealand, where it was summer and early Wednesday morning, and Nick was in Minnesota, where it was -10 with a snow day. Most of the first half was about Tesla's slide: GP said "this is not even panic," while Nick laid out where he'd try to catch the knife. They also covered the indexes basing "like a beach ball underwater," Apple as an index protector, cloud and drone names, Roblox, the brokers, Tesla's earnings, indexing and DCA for smaller accounts, Datadog vs. MongoDB, Digital Turbine, Intel and Cisco's "forever base." On listener questions, the hosts called AMD and FSLR "miserable" downtrends, with one cautious take that AMD is back in business short term above about 114.40, or else it could see the 90s. It closed with "don't sleep on China."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick still has Tesla shares from 200, so he doesn't want to wreck his cost basis. He has traded around it with TSLL long and short and made money, "it just wasn't great." On the weekly, Tesla was pulling into the 30-week moving average and the 150-day. It was the first test since it went stage two, and the 30-week and 200-day line up between about 305 and 330. He won't buy just to catch a knife. He'd rather see a mid-range weekly close, a doji, or a long tail pointing down, and then use that candle as risk to add. On the daily it was wildly oversold. The 11/11 and 11/18 candles have the highest volume, and if price gets inside the 11/18 weekly candle, "I would definitely more fall into GP's camp." The plan would then shift to a 200-day undercut near 250 and a reclaim. Selling volume has been light, so it "could easily flush to 270." If he does catch the knife, he'll bid 300, then 280, and step aside under 270. A 200-day test is unlikely to be tap and go, so the ideal is a spike low, a rally, and a higher low, which gives a B and C point he can risk against. The 50% retracement of the 2024 range is 312, and the best case is that it holds there and "rips the other direction." He is "a longer term bull."
On the indexes, he's staying small and doing less because "I can't help but feel like we're going to get one more leg lower" before a rip, but the November-to-now range looks like a big base to explode from. He still owns ACHR and wanted more follow-through, but it's holding the 50-day while the drone and robotics names act like "the next quantum computing." He bought Roblox at 62 as a trade, saying stage-two breakouts above about 50 should be managed until proven otherwise, with a stop at 59 under the gap low. A 30% COIN move to 354 won't be an earnings story. It would need crypto trending, so build a broker basket on your watch list instead. IBKR was the play in hindsight, and Schwab (SCHW) was breaking out. On a listener's question about indexes for small accounts, he suggested DCAing a basket of ETFs, probably dividend payers, in something like a Roth, kept separate from active trading as "insurance against my own idiocy." Indexes beat inflation and build wealth, "but you're not going to outperform." Your P&L "is really just your grade" on discipline and staying in line with the market. He performs better when he pays himself out of his account. On drones, he said size a small lotto position, put Joby's floor at about 6–7 with its 200-day at 6, and said ACHR looks better though more extended.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben posted the show on StockTwits ("I do miss the blue bird"). He said he can make a bullish case for the index chart, "I still am waiting till we get through the first quarter." He's happy with his moves but isn't going all in, and he'll get more active once it breaks the slight downtrend line he drew. He'd take Unity in the teens, but he wants it to retake its moving averages first and already has plenty of Roblox. He pressed GP on his Roblox exit and asked how far Tesla could fall, joking, "I've never known you to be a Tesla bear."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Tesla is "not even in panic mode," just a grind of 3–5% a day. In his years holding it, Elon has always delivered, but the October 2024 rerating at about 213 came from margin expansion, and then he posted 13.6% gross margins. "Tesla has hardly ever traded on future value." Rejecting 488 before earnings looked like the market already knew. Tesla usually clears all-time highs by a long shot and adds another 40–50% after a multi-year base breakout, so "something was definitely off kilter." It could return to the bottom of the base. Past lows were about 101 and then 138, and roughly 35–38% above the prior low is about 187: "oh, it only got to 190, I win." When panic accelerates, it usually drops another 25–30%. Someone who bought the 2014 high near a pre-split 180 got the same price in June 2019, so "you have to have ironclad" nerves. He expected about $28.2B in revenue but got about $25.7B, flat with last quarter, even though deliveries rose by 30,000, energy storage doubled and service revenue rose about 5%. To him that means severe price cuts, "the worst thing I've seen from him since probably" 2013–14.
He sees a rounding cup at the July highs that's chopping out day traders, and he thinks the SPY looks better than the QQQs, so more names are participating. Apple "is going to remain a leader," and he'd marked five past "demise of Apple" calls. He's out of Roblox because the action was wonky: names that get back to a pivot keep returning to the prior pivot, and what gets tagged after hours tends to get tagged again. Tesla's after-hours 365 came back within days after a bounce to 419.99. He might rebuy in the 50s, but "there's nothing in this market that's leaving you behind," and he has been selling stocks while expecting a normal 10–20% correction. He liked Datadog over MongoDB because "there's so much left to prove" on MDB's chart. He bought Digital Turbine (APPS) near 3.15 before a massive gap down blew through stops, then bought more once it stabilized, and his Nvidia trade got a shout-out on air. On Cisco's "forever base," he pointed to IBM breaking out after buying Red Hat and to Cisco completing its Splunk deal last March. "The same playbook from IBM is going to work on Cisco." He thinks this market rewards individual names more than the index, since Apple can be up while everything else is deep red.
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