Chapters
00:00 Intro: Brothers Fight, Brothers Hug
01:04 GP: Why Everything Is Fine (Rotation)
03:07 Ben: The QQQs Are Down for the Year
04:39 GP: An Eight-Month Wide-Range Chop & 5,500–6,100
07:13 What's Been Destroyed vs. What's Working
09:16 GP: Tesla's Margins & a Trip to 175–180
12:22 Nick: Tesla's Breakout Retest & the 270 Ejector Seat
13:54 Elon, Robotaxi & the "Elon Story"
18:28 Nick: Bought the Open, Wants SPY 590–595
21:33 Is the Market Forward-Facing?
25:41 Ben: Not Trusting the 200-Day, Watching QQQ 483
28:47 Feb–March OPEX & Dr. Copper
30:55 GP: TLT Becomes a Safety Trade
34:33 GP: Look at What Worked Before 2008
37:38 Nick: Patience & Gift Prices
40:11 Trail Stops Run While Skiing
40:44 GP: 2015–16 Analog & Meta at 80
46:01 How Deep? QQQ 430–450
47:34 Ben: The Longest He's Been Bearish
50:09 Hims' 42% Drop
51:11 GP: Long Global Foundries, Stop 35.85
52:46 Nick: The QQQs' Monthly MACD Cross
55:23 Fear & Greed at 21 & Ben's Intel Re-Entry
57:29 Root, AMD & Guilty Until Proven Innocent
58:32 Nick: Grail & the Patience Game
1:00:07 A Monster Inverse H&S in a Hated Name
1:01:11 GP: Financials Leading Is a Topping Process
Market Hours #144 went out live on Tuesday, March 4, with Ben, Nick and GP, all back together after GP's trip abroad and Nick's ski week. They were "already getting at each other" from the start. The QQQs bounced off the 200-day after a three-week drop of about 10% from the February 19 high. GP argued "everything's fine": sector rotation means the bull is alive, the market has been in an eight-month wide-range chop, and stocks outside tech like Amgen, J&J, CVS and McDonald's are working. Ben wasn't trusting a second tap of the 200-day and said "we haven't had enough pain." Nick bought the open but wants a reversal he can trade. They covered Tesla's margins, whether the market is forward-looking, Dr. Copper and TLT, a 2015–16 analog, Global Foundries, Intel, Hims, Grail and a hated name with a monster inverse head and shoulders.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick likes Tesla's breakout retest, which reminded him of the 2019–20 round trip to the 200-day. It's worth a stab, but the short-term moving averages have curled down, so "270 could be your ejector seat." He said the day before's bar was nasty but likely overdone, and "I definitely put quite a bit of money to work pretty much right off the open." On the indexes, he wants a rally on the SPY to about 590–595, a few days of basing, then another leg higher "to at least make the reversal tradeable." Candles like that day's usually show up in downtrends, so buying it is chasing a snapback. "If there was a spot that you're going to pick to throw money in a knife-catching fashion, this is definitely the spot to at least initiate." He looks for continuation trades, treating ranges as rest periods where people who missed it can reposition. A range expansion lower would likely get blamed on tariffs.
He said it's a patience game. "If you're not focusing on weekly charts, you're going to do yourself a disservice." For those sized right, that day and Friday were good days to add to long-term positions. Shorter-term swing traders should bide their time, treating it as day one of a rally attempt, waiting a few days to a couple of weeks for a higher low and a B-point breakout leg. "If you went to cash... you're getting gift prices in a lot of names." This messy behavior is what lets bases set up for the second half. A lot of his trail stops got run while he was skiing, but he's been sized "enough to satisfy my own ego." The QQQs' monthly MACD was starting to cross down, which had him a little defensive. He was thinking support could come anywhere from 430 to 450. His big screener hit that day was Grail (GRAL), which showed early relative strength, and he caught most of the move. He thinks that day's high-volume low will likely get tested. He has an alert at 190 on the hated name with the monster inverse head and shoulders, after it retested about 158–159.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben pushed back that "the QQQs are down for the year," about 2.25%. They hit -10% from the February 19 high that day and sat around -8%. He isn't trusting the 200-day on a second tap in 18 months. On the QQQs, he's watching 483, the 50-week. He'd like to see an undercut and go near 475, but if it melts the 50-week, "I think we're going to go deeper," which would be a 12–13% correction. He doesn't think it's the 420s–440s, but he's still waiting for the end of Q1 before throwing money at things. "False moves bring fast moves," and he believes it's still a sell-the-rip environment at the bottom of the range. Microsoft "looks atrocious to me," and Apple, Google and Amazon don't look great either. He sees a possible head and shoulders building in Nvidia. "This is the longest period of bearishness I've had since you guys have known me."
He looked at GP's copper chart and said it looks overextended, with high wicks getting pushed down and volume drying up, so "I wouldn't be a buyer of this here." TLT strength tells him someone is happy to collect 4.5% and avoid stocks, and people he talks to keep saying they'll just buy government bonds. His AMD shares date back to about $60. He said Hims dropped 42% off the high in three weeks. The Fear & Greed Index was at 21, extreme fear, "so you're probably good for a short-term buy if nothing else." He's waiting for his Intel trade to come back, with a long re-entry for another short-term trade around 22.25–22.50, above the weekly 9 and 20. On AMD at 95, it's "guilty until proven innocent," with moving averages curling on every time frame and a quarterly MACD breakdown. He'd want the hated name with the inverse head and shoulders to prove itself through 190 before getting long, but "I love a hated name. I love it with a passion."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that as long as there's rotation, "it's still a bull market." Large-cap biotechs like Amgen and Gilead, plus J&J, McDonald's, Meta and Netflix, are still strongly positive, with Netflix and Meta both up about 10% for the year. CVS, "the most hated name on the planet," had the best S&P return year to date. The chip names were bouncing at the bottom of the range, and the QQQs tagged the July gap down, which lines up with the election gap and the yen-carry gap. The SPX's typical range after a 100% extension runs from there to the 78.6%, about 5,500–6,100, a normal 5–10% correction. "Find what you like and get long." He has hardly traded in the past month while abroad, just selling some puts. On Tesla, the quarter had its lowest margins since about 2016, and "Elon... did not back up his" talk this time. He thinks it goes to the 175–180 pivot. The rerating after three straight quarters of margin expansion took it from 213 to 488, and leaning on robotaxi talk without earnings has never worked. He said Elon-company news only moves Tesla on the downside.
He thinks this is the usual February-to-March OPEX shakeout. Dr. Copper (HG) has a weekly and monthly inverse head and shoulders above its 2006–2008 highs, with a neckline around 4.40–4.75, which favors macro, commodity and manufacturing names over tech. TLT is becoming a safety trade on monstrous volume as the old stock-bond correlation rebuilds, because the monetary regime has changed: "it's time to start looking at the stuff that worked prior to 2008." He thinks tariffs help American makers once price gaps close, like a $20 Chinese blender becoming $35–40. The period reminds him of 2015–16, when after the China currency crisis the market went sideways about 16 months, retested in February 2016 at about 18% off the highs, then started a big move. The first drawdown in this trend, the yen carry trade, was 15.87%. Markets misprice in the short term, like Meta "at 80" while still making billions, and he doesn't see much room for Nvidia to fall unless earnings tank.
He went long Global Foundries (GFS) the day before. It's a matured IPO from 2022, with American-made chips and what he thinks is a monster double bottom, because the market has "wipe[d] out the existing shareholder base." His stop is 35.85, about $2 or 7–8% of risk, for a possible move back to the 50s or 60s, 75–100%. On the QQQs, everything depends on the 50-week. A true weekly close below it opens 430–450, but he'd first look for a catch around 460–470, near the quarterly low of 477.4, with the quarterly MACD not curling down. He mentioned Root's phenomenal monthly close and earnings. His big picture is that "all of this stuff is a topping process." Financials leading is inherently bearish because they're the last sector to participate. With deregulation coming, tech can lag financials for a long time while the market stays up, as it did into 2007–08. "I just don't think it's yet."
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