Chapters
00:00 Intro: A "Catastrophe" in This Market
00:31 GP: Why Tariffs Can Be Good Long Term
03:19 Four Straight Red Weeks: How Long, Not How Deep
05:02 GP: Rotation Means the Bull Is Alive
07:41 Ben: COVID Had Green Days, This Hasn't
09:23 GP's 7,700 Target & AMD in Three Batches
10:57 Ben: I Had a Plan, Happy in Cash
12:31 Is This a Bottom? GP on the Redfin Buyout
16:56 Nick: SPY 560–550, 540 Downside & the Spring
19:38 Stage-One Bases: Marvell & Tesla the Behemoth
20:42 GP: 8–10x Moves & Wave 2 Retests ($AFRM, $HOOD)
24:21 GP: Tesla Back at the S&P Inclusion Level
26:04 Announcement: Moving to StockTwits Wednesdays
28:12 Vote: StockTwits Community Member of the Year
36:41 GP's Buys: GFS, Tesla & AMD at 96
38:59 Ben's Bids: Pfizer, Roblox & SentinelOne
40:40 GP: Not Bullish on Mega Caps Outside Tesla
41:41 Nick: Roblox 48, Broadcom & Nvidia Risk-Reward
44:31 GP: Someone Is Getting Blown Out
46:43 Feb to March OPEX & the COVID Parallel
48:22 Fairly Valued Means Sellers Must Entice Buyers
49:28 Ben: How He'd DCA $1,000 a Month
53:50 Waiting for the Monthly Close
55:27 GP: VIX Expiration & Three Standard Deviations
57:04 Nick: Buy the Smallest Position & Leave It
58:04 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #145 went out live on Tuesday, March 11, during the fourth straight week of heavy selling, with Ben, Nick and GP. It was the last regular Tuesday YouTube show. The crew announced the podcast was moving to StockTwits as the Community Hangout, every Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, starting the next day. Ben had been bearish and was sitting in cash with a shopping list. GP said rotation and the Redfin buyout argue the bull is still alive, and that the selling feels like someone big getting blown out. Nick saw a "spring" setup with limited downside to about SPY 540. They covered stage-one base retests, Tesla back at its S&P inclusion level, everyone's bids, OPEX timing, how Ben would DCA a monthly budget, and the VIX's extension.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said active traders don't belong in long positions under the 200-day or 50-day. "If you're more of a DCA type investor, this is accumulation mode hardcore." On the SPY, the 560–550 zone could hold, and he thinks the downside risk is limited to about 540. Below that, his outlook "would change significantly." The last 10 sessions came on huge volume, and he thinks the 585–610 range was distribution that resolved lower because rotation slowed and no fresh breakouts were sticking. "We resolved to the downside just to resolve to the upside," like pulling back a spring or rubber band. He guessed the market has barely used half of the stage-one bases built after 2022. Some names are holding their base breakouts and others are reverting into the range, as the indices correct in time or price while fresh setups form. "You're an idiot if you think Tesla's not going to be an absolute behemoth monster coming out of this." Be patient. He'd also like to see more solid IPOs.
He'd be happy with a Roblox fill in the 50s and thinks the 48 low holds. It could test the 20-month, with the 50-week at 51, so he can see it undercutting a bit to 48–49. He sees "pretty easy risk-reward" in Broadcom and Nvidia, and Palo Alto had a huge bar that day. After a candle like that, he wants a few days to a week of follow-through higher, then a pullback or sideways move for a higher low. His advice was "you don't need to buy all at once, sell all at once." If you're getting chopped up, "buy the smallest position you can in whatever your favorite stocks are and then just leave it alone." He remembered StockTwits launching around the 2009–2010 credit crisis, when your options for community were a trading desk, Twitter or StockTwits, and before that the Yahoo message boards.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben asked whether four straight weeks of significant selling was a correction inside a bull. He pointed out that COVID's 22-bar fall on the QQQs still had six green days, "we didn't even get that this time." He's been firm in his convictions but kept saying "I hope that I am wrong." Someone heavy in Mag 7 and high flyers may have lost a third to half of their value, "that's why I said I'm going to sell... I want to be happy in cash. And if I'm wrong... I'll buy higher." The market was about 12% off the highs (13.5% at the low), a mid-level correction that could go deeper. He didn't see bottoming action in the SPY or QQQs. In 2022 he bought indiscriminately, but now he thinks things were fairly valued. "Sometimes you have to get some sellers to entice buyers," and that's about the price on the ticker, not revenue. Marvell is testing its stage-one base. He's in the teens on his free position after it fell 22% one week and 11–12% the week before. He was neutral on Affirm and would be ready to pull the trigger within $5–6 lower.
He hadn't bought anything yet. His Pfizer order was set at 25, and he had a bid on AMD well under 97. He has Roblox at 50 after selling at 66 on the volatility candle, though he thinks it may need more work in the 46s. His biggest queued buy was SentinelOne, which missed by less than 30 cents in premarket at a 17.57 low, and he wouldn't chase it at 18.90. "Do you have a plan, do you have a list, do you know what levels you're going to buy?" He wanted to see the end-of-quarter monthly close and a turn in the last two weeks of March before changing his mind. Even if it turns now, he's buying lower than three weeks ago. With a 9-to-5 and $1,000 a month to invest, he'd DCA the three or four names he likes best on a schedule, like the 1st and 15th. To grow a position faster, he'd buy every Tuesday morning before the open, at whatever the price is that day.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP thinks tariffs are good long term because they spur American innovation and let domestic makers compete at closer price parity. His example was balloons at 45 cents imported versus 50 cents American-made, but that takes time: "the markets are already taking it up the pooper." He doesn't care how deep a correction gets, only how long, and unabated selling like this usually doesn't last. It's "worse than COVID" in velocity, with no bounce and some names down 70%. The chip names like AMD and Lam Research already had their 2022 moves. The defensive leaders he's been rotating into (Regeneron, Amgen, Gilead, Altria, Philip Morris, AT&T, CVS and J&J) took monster hits that morning. "Whenever I see rotation... the bull market is still alive." He's had a buy target of 7,700 for two and a half to three years and is still putting money to work. His AMD plan is three batches: the 120s, the 90s, and 60–75 if things capitulate.
Buyouts don't happen in monster corrections, he said. Redfin got bought for about 12.50 when it traded around 5.50–5.80, a premium of over 100%. That's like January 13, 2020, the opposite of euphoria-top deals like Teladoc's roughly $19 billion Livongo buy. Names like Palantir, SoFi, Affirm and Robinhood (from about $7 to 60) are 8–10x off the 2022 lows. In Elliott wave terms, wave 2 is the first investors taking profits and retesting the base breakout. If it finds buyers, there's another set of investors to take it to the next stage. Tesla is retesting the base built since its S&P inclusion, around a 220.59 weekly close. He said Elon looked deflated in an interview, which he'd never seen. "If you are a shareholder of Tesla, this will be the 742nd time that's happened to you."
He bought GFS near his stop entry and added Tesla, which he's underwater on but mostly holds below 150, plus AMD at 96. His last AMD batch would be split around 70–74, the bottom of the 2021–22 base, and he could see about 59–60 on a full 2022 retest. Outside Tesla he's not bullish on mega caps. He thinks Microsoft and Nvidia have lower to go, with Nvidia money moving into other chips, and he likes Broadcom's relative strength, green on the week when other chips weren't. His Redfin position is up about 80% in under a year. He said the selling feels like "someone larger" than Melvin Capital getting blown out, like the July yen carry trade, and pointed to the pattern of selling starting two days before February OPEX and ending into March OPEX. COVID's slide stopped the day after OPEX. VIX expiration falls on Tuesday this time because of FOMC, and that's usually weak in the morning and better by the close. The VIX's RSI was near 70, and the VIX, SPY and QQQs were about three standard deviations from their 50-day. The bands can keep expanding, but they usually bounce to the midline before any further leg lower. He's been on StockTwits about 12 years. Along with Don Corleone, the Professor and microm, he was nominated for StockTwits' first Community Member of the Year Cashtag Award, with voting until March 21.
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