Chapters
00:00 Intro & New Streaming Software
01:16 Nick: September Volatility, Small and Nimble
05:29 GP: SPX 6,738 Extension & the 6,100 Retest
09:22 Mega Caps Green: Netflix Leads
10:31 Ben: Jobs Revision & a Half-Point Cut?
12:41 GP: Track the Two-Year
13:50 Ben: Selling Good Earnings on Light Guidance
14:53 Nick: $ARM & $TEM Look Identical
15:55 Ben's Adobe & Marvell
17:03 GP: Divorcing You from Your Shares ($HIMS, Lemonade)
18:11 Will the Leaders Keep Leading?
21:20 GP: September Shows the 2026 Leaders; CVS vs. Adobe
23:56 Apple & Tesla: Last to Lead
26:29 Mags vs. QQQs vs. Small Caps
29:49 GP: Rolling Amazon & Google into Tesla
32:02 Nick's Smaller Names: Drones, Nuclear & Biotech
33:43 IWM to 300?
37:00 JC Parets, Black Swans & Resistance
40:50 GP: Fubo, Solid Power & Blend
42:59 Shitco Fall & the IGV
44:04 Navigating the Next 10 Days
47:49 GP: Trim Resistance, Rebuy Lower ($U)
50:32 Crypto: ETH, Solana, SUI & XRP
51:03 Treasury Companies & Ethereum's Fib Levels
53:49 Ben: ETH to 5,600–6,000, $BMNR & $DFDV
57:25 Ben: $MSTR as a Proxy & Buying COIN at 294
59:05 COIN's Island Bottom & Weekly Tight Closes
1:01:13 MSTR's 50-Week
1:03:19 GP: Is Exxon a Canary?
1:07:39 Apple Event & Upgrade Cycles
1:09:54 GP: Intel's Island Setup
1:11:32 CoreWeave's Double Bottom & 105
1:15:12 GP: eToro's Risk-Reward
1:18:25 GP: Don't Sleep on Regional Banks
1:19:32 Ben: Love the People You Love
Market Hours #147 went out live on Tuesday, September 9, with Ben, Nick and GP, starting late on new streaming software. Nick expected September to be volatile and unpredictable and said to play small and nimble. GP said the market has been "technical since April 7th" and still pushes toward his 6,738 SPX extension. Ben focused on the big jobs revision and whether it gives the Fed cover for a half-point cut. The crew debated whether the leaders keep leading or new ones emerge, Apple and Tesla as the last to lead, and small caps versus Mag 7. They covered navigating the next 10 days of data, crypto treasury companies, Ethereum and MSTR, Exxon as a canary, Intel, CoreWeave against eToro, and regional banks. Ben closed with a tribute to his late friend JR on what would have been his birthday.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks September continues as a stock picker's market. Active traders with alerts set are doing great, and longer-term investors picking spots are fine, but anyone too big in size and chasing "the shiny object of the day" will get whipsawed. "Playing small, remaining nimble is the way to go," and protecting mental capital comes first heading into the strongest time of year. If the market follows the 2020 roadmap, a post-Fed leg down would lead into a Santa Claus rally, more chop, and then "next year is going to be an absolute monster." As Dio says, you've got to survive the ride. When names get crushed after earnings, he likes to see those gaps fill quickly. ARM got smacked into its 200-day, and ARM and TEM "look identical to me," though TEM looks "beastlier." The difference with Adobe is that you're betting on a full trend change out of a descending channel. With TEM or ARM, you're playing a fresh breakout from an existing sideways base. He thinks some leaders may sell off into year-end, and then a January rebalance should bring an acceleration in the names that have been leading.
He has a feeling Tesla is "going to go on an absolute freaking tear" and wouldn't bet against Musk, though the chart is still in a range. The other Mag 7 names will be more of a grind and melt. To outperform, he'd focus on small caps, and he thinks the IWM is getting ready to run to 300. If he had to pick one mega cap, it's Tesla, and otherwise he'd just own the QQQs. He sees drones as huge and named robotics, Rocket Lab, RR, Hinge (which chopped him out), GH and Boston Scientific's breakout. Oscar Health got beaten to the low end of its base, put in an island, held the gap-and-go candle and followed through. Many nuclear and energy names (GEV, VRT, VST and others) look extended, though he doesn't see the infrastructure rebuild happening without energy. He likes the IGV again, along with Datadog and CRM eating up its gap. For the next 10 days, he won't buy weakness. He's staying long with trail stops set, though position traders can buy the dip, and momentum traders should watch what holds up best.
In crypto he likes SUI and XRP, thinks Bitcoin is trapped in its channel, and says Ethereum still looks fantastic. His ETH fibs run from the April pivot lows to the highs. Creeping back below 4,000 would make him consider trimming and could be a failed breakout, and the 50% is about 3,200. He'd rather own the underlying than treasury companies like SBET, BMNR or GLXY unless it's a short-term technical trade. Coinbase and MSTR are putting in tight weekly closes. COIN has seven tight weeks above the 30- and 40-week after peeling only about 100 points off its highs. On CoreWeave, the daily double bottom confirms through 105, reclaiming the nasty August 15 wide-range-bar pivot low on the weekly.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "we don't know what real job numbers are anymore since we're firing the statisticians." The roughly 911,000 revision gives the "data-dependent Fed" cover to maybe cut half a point, since this administration has wanted lower rates for months. Companies beat but got sold for light guidance, and he sees buying opportunities there. He bought Adobe last week, hated forever and reporting Thursday, and he likes Marvell, which is down for the year after good earnings and soft guidance, over chasing something up 150% in nine months. On Mag 7, he suggested the equal-weight MAGS ETF for anyone who doesn't want to cherry-pick, and he trimmed his own mega caps down to two years ago. He doesn't think JC Parets is a tool, just confident, and found his talk with Allstar Charts about what could stop this market fascinating.
He's "pretty bound to crypto." He made sizable positions in BMNR and the Solana treasury company DFDV and increased both, and he thinks ETH is in for about a 30% run to 5,600–6,000. Solana would follow, then a memecoin run. If it hasn't happened by October, he'll rethink, because "I've been pretty good about calling these things in the past, and I'm open to being wrong." He doesn't see the celebrity exuberance of past cycle tops yet. He sees MSTR as a proxy that has outperformed Bitcoin, so he wants both. His MSTR analysis shows it respecting the 50-week since it took on Bitcoin, and two weekly closes below the 50 would mean the trade has changed. He bought Coinbase around 294, figuring it may be the last chance under 300 for a while, adding to a position he's held "from the 50s." "If I'm not going to lever up on something I have a high conviction in, then what the hell am I doing?"
He called himself "probably the world's worst commodity trader." If he got long Exxon, he'd want an ignition gap into all-time highs, the way he'd set an alert for gold's highs. He thinks Intel could finally get back to $30. On CoreWeave, he said the weekly nine is the key after a breakout failure, with 105–106 the spot to get long, shooting against the 83–89 area. A breakout over 105–106 targets the 130s to 140s. He still likes his Adobe chart better than eToro, because "I love a hated stock."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said 6,738 is the 123.6% fib extension "where we should encounter finally some weakness." The 100% extension at 6,120 was tagged multiple times in January before the February breakdown. He expects 6,738, then a retest of 6,100 "and the roars will get loud." He says to ignore that unless 6,100 breaks or something outside our control happens. Every bit of weakness since April 7 has been a back test of an intraday level, the 50-day, the 200-day or a fib. Non-market friends asking when to sell is a sign "no one wants a part of this." Small caps refuse to front-run cuts and sold down to Friday's low back test even after the revision. That day was mega caps: Netflix, Spotify, Google, Meta, AMD, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Coinbase and "even the ship state called Tesla." "Stay bullish until you're told otherwise." The Fed should track the two-year, which gives it room to cut. The job revisions partly reflect tech's COVID overhiring and cost cuts, while those same companies crush earnings. Hims' 200-day tag and morning star reversal, and Lemonade's nine months inside then a near-failed breakout, show the market "is on a mission to divorce you from your shares."
His long-standing theory is that year-end positioning happens in September, which "is going to show us what our new leaders will be for 2026." He prefers rising moving averages: CVS has curled up and is a better bottom-fish than Adobe, Lululemon or UNH, which are still in down-trending channels. Hims at about 23 into its rising long-term average before the April low was one of those calls. He thinks Apple and Tesla, the last to bottom, will be the last to lead, much as Google was dismissed in May before a 50% move. He sold Amazon (bought around 88–90, sold around 190–200) and Google and rolled them into Tesla, where most of his entries are below 200. Strong price action after "kitchen sink" earnings says the market expects EPS to return to growth. "I will always choose innovation... over operation." You don't need a black swan for a drop, "just a bunch of resistance." Names from 2021 caught his eye on his nightly Russell scans: Fubo, Solid Power (SLDP) and Blend (BLND), with GoPro and Open "running on fumes."
This isn't a momentum market unless you day trade, he said, pointing to Coinbase basing at 300 after 444. You can buy and not look, or trim at resistance and rebuy lower. Unity Software, trimmed at 39 three times, broke through its 44 pivot "without even flinching." He's watching PPI and CPI, and his concern on ETH is that treasury buying still can't break it out, though SBET trades about 10–12% under NAV as an arbitrage play. Institutional buying has slowed crypto short term but sets it up for bigger moves. Coinbase is "an island top formation becoming an island bottom." Exxon looks "highly distributive," with heavy red volume bars since 2022 and a rounding top like UNH, Lulu or Boeing before they died. If XOM breaks, energy and small caps likely follow, and small caps keep getting rejected at 2,400 on the RTY. He likes Intel's coiled, massive island setup with government backing, noting that 2008's government-backed banks and automakers did well over time. CoreWeave needs to clear and close above about 101.50 or could go back to 65. eToro's weekly broke its 45 low to 43, then printed a bullish engulfing bar on volume with a mini inverse head and shoulders. His stop below 43.50 risks about 5–6%, versus a $15 stop on CoreWeave at 98. Regional banks are KRE inverse head-and-shoulders patterns at the GFC highs, a 17–18-year base that benefits from rate cuts, "not sexy, but powerful." He keeps saying financials are the last sector of the bull market.
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