Chapters
00:00 Intro: Turnaround Tuesday & New Stream Gear
01:32 GP: The Market Needs a Flush
04:06 Tesla's $1B Insider Buy & Flow
05:38 Nick: QQQs 575–580 Into the Fed
09:21 GP: Selling Where There's No Cushion
10:53 The QQQs' Broadening Wedge to 600
11:23 GP: Adding $AMD & Lemonade on Weakness
13:27 China: Baba, Baidu, JD & Futu
17:35 Uber, DoorDash & Getting Lost in the Sauce
20:43 GP: The Next Open? Trading vs. Investing
23:47 Nick: Social Media Is a Scan, Not a Signal
29:29 Solar: $FSLR, $ENPH & Nextracker
34:41 Dio's FSLR, $VSAT & EchoStar
36:13 Quantum: $RGTI & $IONQ Into FOMC
38:47 Tempus AI: Every Pullback a Gift?
40:51 CoreWeave's "Circle Jerk" & the 109 Ignition Candle
45:54 GP: Circle (CRCL) & the 2x ETF
47:58 True or False: This Isn't a Tesla Move
54:10 How Deep a Flush?
57:18 The Fed: 25, 50 or 75?
59:53 Trillions in Money Markets
1:06:30 Nick's Prop-Desk Fed-Day Story
1:08:01 Shopping Lists: Nick's $DASH, $UBER, $TEM & $ARM
1:11:39 GP: Tesla Puts & Nike's Trend Change
1:15:45 Micro Strategy's Coil
1:19:25 GP: Watch the Dollar
1:20:27 MSTR's Three Weeks Tight & Wrap-Up
Market Hours #148 went out live on Tuesday, September 16, "turnaround Tuesday," the day before the Fed. Ben, Nick and GP started about 15 minutes late while breaking in new streaming gear. GP opened by saying the market needs a flush: there's no organic buying, flow is driving everything, and Elon's billion-dollar Tesla buy only got a 3.5% move. Nick mapped the QQQs into FOMC. The crew covered China, how to separate trades from investments, social media as a scanning tool, solar, quantum, Tempus, CoreWeave and Circle, whether Tesla's move is done, and the 25/50/75 basis-point debate. They finished with shopping lists for a post-Fed flush: Nick's DoorDash, Uber, Tempus and ARM; GP's Tesla puts, Nike calls and Micro Strategy; and Ben's leveraged crypto.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the QQQs and NQ had already started breaking out of the range in place since early June, which had him leaning toward a selloff after the Fed. He'd like to see the 575–580 area hold, right back into the 20-day. If it gets worse, the 550s or 560s aren't out of the question. "The first move is the false move," but he thinks the real decision comes Thursday or Friday. His plan was to sell down positions without much cushion, like Rocket Lab, which he dumped. Some names pulling in, like Hims, looked like spots to get aggressive "if we didn't have the Fed tomorrow." A 575–580 retest would just be a retest of the breakout and "would set up a lot of opportunity." A drop back below 575 would look like a breakout failure, aiming at the 550s or an undercut of the range low. He doesn't have China on, but JD was on his radar from a Stocktwits regular, Jake W.
He doesn't care who mentions a ticker. He only adds it if there's a setup. Candle-by-candle traders might set an alert at the prior day's high, and base traders through moving averages or range highs and lows. "Know yourself and your style." Social media should be a scanning tool, not something that feeds you someone's bias. Letting a day trade turn into a swing is fine if it's in your plan, as long as you size down to the right risk. It takes years to become "time frame fluid." In solar, his favorites are NXT and FSLR, then SEDG, with ENPH last. On the solar chart with a five-leg channel, the easy entry was when the June 16 low was recaptured around August 11. He likes seeing a wide-range bar's low get recaptured, and reclaiming the 73 pivot low would be a huge level. He mentioned VSAT as a possible momentum runner, and he has IONQ on. A breakout retest on the flat base would be where he adds, with alerts at 48–50 and a stop around 42–43. "I wouldn't be chasing this thing higher."
Tempus AI respects the 10-day and 20-day when it trends, and above 91 "it's clear skies." On a weak Fed reaction he'd be interested anywhere in the 70s, but not below the 50-day. On CoreWeave, the September 10 high-volume candle is the bar of interest. September 12's spike got eaten back up, and he'd have an alert at the 109 ignition-candle low, risking to about 102. He remembered Fed days on the 2008–09 prop desk, when one scalper got so worked up "as soon as the announcement would come... he'd pass out." His shopping list is DoorDash, Uber, TEM and ARM. DASH works through the 263–265 pivot high, with alerts on a spike to 251–252. Uber is 93–95 on a retest of the breakout. He'd add TEM on a push through 91, or lean in at 71–72 between the 20-day and the 50-day. He'd add ARM on strength through 159–160, confirming an ABCD leg. On the smaller side, he likes Pony, BBAI and RR. He noted MSTR's three weeks tight sits on the 50% retracement of the whole range, and he was surprised Coinbase didn't hold.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben thinks people are "lost in the sauce" with so many winners since April and take tiny "piker's positions" in a bunch of names. He's consolidating into the four to six names he likes best for long-term growth, and he's skeptical of tickers he sees on social media. He put a 70–80% markup on JD at about $60: "charts aren't always the same, but they often rhyme," with JD catching its base after two huge bars just as Baba did. He used a solar chart (inferred to be ENPH) to show "a battleground" of wicks after it recaptured its moving averages. He'd want it above about $44 to attack the top of the channel, and he wouldn't let it run back to 33. He noted Dio saying FSLR was his biggest position. On CoreWeave, his chart had a lower channel and a gap up last week, so he'd wait for a retest of the moving averages.
On Tesla, he drew the prior all-time high straight across to show "the tug-of-war" last time. He had predicted 400 was coming soon. He said he isn't selling just because it got there and sees another channel to go. He prepared for the Fed by selling trades he had less conviction in, and he marked 580 and 650 on the QQQs and SPY. He's ready to put money to work higher if he has to. He'd never seen the market front-run a cut like this, from doubtful to about 90% odds of 25 basis points with talk of 50. A quarter point means "we're just going to levitate." A half point could bring volatility and then upside within a session or two, "shitco 2026." A 50 or more would be "pulling the beach ball underwater," and he doesn't see a world with no cut. He pointed to last week's jobs revision (about 911,000). On the trillions in money markets, about 7.8 trillion, he'd read that roughly a third is estates. He has a soft spot for hated names like Micro Strategy. He's "leveraged to the tits in crypto." Alts are starting to run, but full alt season hasn't arrived, and money eventually flows back to Bitcoin, so he'll play it through MSTR or the 2x MSTX. His trade plan from a couple of Saturdays earlier still stands, with MSTR holding the 50-week moving average: "Take my money." On Nike, he drew a pivot at 71 and expects an undercut of the 50-week to set up an inverse head and shoulders.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said a flush "would be a welcomed moment." Hims fell on recirculated news after put buying the day before, and Rocket Lab's offering was "good business management... but it hurts." He watches four sectors for the IWM: XLF, XLE, KRE and XBI. Regional banks led it down that day, and he says the sectors alternate. Tesla went up 23% on the tariff pause but only 3.5% on the CEO's billion-dollar buy. At 2 p.m., flow bought puts and sold calls, and it fell from 420 to 402 in minutes. He could see an outlier day where the RTY rises while the NQ sells. With no good read, he planned to sell positions without cushion by the close. The QQQs' broadening wedge, like 2020's, points to about 600. Last time it went sideways for three weeks and then took off.
He's eyeing AMD, which flagged for months after its 2023 move but looks stronger now, possibly three weeks tight. He trimmed about 25% near 184 and wants to add it back. He has about a 60% position in Lemonade and would reload at 52–53. He also likes Circle and the China names: Baidu was up 6.5% the day after he posted it, and "Baba, this is going to 180 soon." He mentioned a December 170 call trade put on with producer Keith at $2.60. He'd take Futu over the laggard JD, because "laggards are laggards for a reason." He sees 2021 behavior in hunting the "next SoFi, next Palantir." His OPEN trade was a 20–25% grab, part of the two or three he takes a month to build cash: "it's not investing, it's squeezing." In solar, FSLR is the investable name and "ENPH is always the alpha" for momentum. He's trading RGTI's inside week and cup at high volume for 20–30%. Into the binary event, his stop sits a penny or two above his entry. He called CoreWeave's Nvidia deal "suspect as hell," with back-to-back wicks at 138, and he'd wait for a retest or breakout. Circle had better risk-reward, with about $3–4 of risk to the 133.56 gap or 127 on the daily nine. He's in through the 2x CRCA, a few-week trade with about 4.5–5% risk.
True or false, "this is not a Tesla move": he said the gains should be much bigger after a four-year base, an all-time-high retest and an ascending triangle. One friend's reaction to Elon's buy was to sell a third of his position, and that sentiment is everywhere. His newer Tesla account has bought in tranches since about 200, the 50% retrace, funded by selling Amazon, Google and Shopify, so his entries are well over 100% up. Since he's already long, he'd sell puts: about $34 at the money for the October 24 earnings week, or about $20–25 for 390s. He bought Nike January 85 calls, a half position, after the stock rejected its declining 50-week for two years. A retest or slight undercut of the 50-week is where he'd add, with a target of 105. He compared it to GE's trend change at about $40, now near 290, though he doesn't want long-term Nike stock. He loves MSTR's coil, "spring-loaded" after grinding down while Bitcoin rose. He thinks the Fed needs to get to a 75 basis-point cut, since "your data has been wrong for a year." A big cut could pull the trillions in money markets into stocks once cash stops beating inflation. His macro warning was the dollar breaking down from its broadening wedge: "if this accelerates, it has the potential to cause mayhem."
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