Chapters
00:00 Intro & Lasagna Day
02:20 GP's Collarbone
03:56 Nick: IWM Below the High-Volume Candle
06:42 GP's Wet Blankie: SPX Rejecting at the Fib
09:54 Ben: Buy the Dips, 6,600 & the Weekly 9 EMA
14:48 GP: Raise Cash, Relative Strength in $NFLX, $AMD & $TTD
16:59 Broken Correlations & Small Caps at the 2021 Highs
20:08 Nick: IWM Range, 244.50 & 237
23:54 AMD's Unusual Strength
26:28 Competing Scenarios: Apple, Tesla & Sideways Holdings
29:11 Bear Porn & the Melt Higher
33:29 Momentum Names: Trade the Chart, Not Your P&L
36:12 What Could Trigger a Flush? 2017 & 2020 Playbooks
43:12 The "Infinite Money Glitch"
44:49 Nick: Early 2030s Before the Run Fizzles
49:44 GP: Valuations, Jensen & October 2022
53:30 Ben: Every Nvidia Dip Has Been a Buy
57:20 Where to Put Money to Work: $TEM & $ARM
59:24 GP: Tesla, Hims, First Solar & $OPEN
1:01:31 Ben: Reopening Microsoft
1:04:14 ASML & the Intel Debate
1:07:58 Naming the Tuesday Show & Wrap-Up
Market Hours #150 went out live on Tuesday, October 7, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP's collarbone was healing without surgery. The SPX had stalled three days in a row at GP's long-watched fib, his "wet blankie," and the crew debated whether a flush back to 6,100 was coming or just a shallow dip to the weekly 9 EMA. Nick laid out the IWM range levels, and GP ran through relative strength and broken correlations. They talked about the "infinite money glitch" in AI spending, Jensen's track record, where each would put cash to work on a pullback, the Intel debate and a new name for the Tuesday show. Cookie_M was announced for October 28.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick wasn't thrilled with the IWM. The September 17 high-volume candle sets his range lines, and price was back below that candle's high. Still, intraday and morning weakness had been bought every time, so he wanted to see the close. After running this hot, some digestion "would be wildly welcomed." Momentum names like quantum and drones are harder to trail-stop, so you sell into strength, trim and trail, because the further they extend from short-term averages, the more violent the pull-in. He called it a great morning to clean up the books, especially anything you chased on FOMO: "sell some, hold some." On the daily IWM, a close below 244.50 would make him consider a test of the range low at 237, and that low could get undercut with the 50-day just below. A reclaim of 237 would be the entry, a sign shorts were trapped. A definitive loss of 236–237 would move him toward GP's view of a trip to the 200-day around 217–220, with an area at 225–226. He wouldn't call small caps "broken" after the straight 20-day rip since they broke the descending channel in late April. A weak close would be a change in character. He noted a 6,100 pullback wouldn't even be a .382 retracement from the tariff lows, and "maybe it'll be known as the haircut top."
Post-earnings drift and melt-ups are the hardest trend to trade. "The only thing that you can do is perpetually raise stops and allow the market to force you out." He asks what action would frustrate the most people, and since the June highs that has been "a perpetual melt higher." With momentum names, turn your P&L off the screen and trade the chart. CoreWeave looks good at the low end of its range. It ticked the low of his September 10 high-volume-candle line that morning, and the mid-120s looked like "a pretty good spot to take a stab." On the AI money loop, he thinks we're at "the beginning stages of something monstrous." He agrees with Dio on his S&P chart that the bull runs into the early 2030s, around 2031 based on symmetry, before something like a monumental blowoff, so dips keep getting bought. As we always preach, manage your risk and let price decide, "but now is not the time to be a pessimist." For pullback buys, Tempus AI (TEM) and ARM are still his two favorites. Both are basing without breaking out, and he'd watch for relative strength in the range. They'd be trades at first and could become core holdings if they break out, digest and stair-step.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben had been in "keep buying when opportunity arises" mode. He conceded the weekly chart is extended, but "the same thing happens when you pull the beach ball underwater." He marked about 6,592, conveniently near the weekly 9 EMA, as his start-buying-again level. He'd already taken the Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur buy signal, and "give me some more cheapies." He said AMD, which usually flushes on weakness, was holding up, perhaps thanks to the OpenAI deal, above the prior day's low around 202. He got tired of "bear porn" gasping at every move and remembered October 2020, when everyone expected the 319 SPY low to break and it never came. "I just feel like we're in the same type of environment." He'd rather chart the SPY and QQQs than the IWM. His style is best-of-breed names with a few speculative positions, "set it and forget it."
He wishes he'd put every penny into Nvidia, since "every dip in this chart from the beginning of time has ultimately been a buy." That's why he reopened his Nvidia position. He's a long-time AMD holder and was glad the OpenAI announcement validated AMD catching up, but Nvidia "is still the Clydesdale pulling everything." With cash left from the Rosh Hashanah trade and plenty of leveraged crypto exposure, his pullback buy is Microsoft. He regrets selling it, and it sits in the middle of his thesis on semis, AI, networking and security, a "fortress" next to OpenAI, Nvidia and AMD. Anything below 500 would be a win, but he'll probably start a position sooner. He's letting ASML walk after stalking it from below $800 to $1,000. On Intel, he traded the ranges but has low long-term conviction: "guilty until proven innocent... the gang that can't shoot straight." He'd rather own operators he trusts, like Lisa Su and Jensen.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said it was three separate attempts at his fib level and down. It's the same level Ben was selling against in January–February, about 6,120, when the 10% pullback he expected became 20%. "If this snowballs into more, we're going back to 6,100." He said caution flags go up when your levels hit and don't break. "This is not the time... to press it." A week straight down 10% before earnings would get people bearish before a reversal. Like the monthly candles during COVID, he thinks last month's low around 6,300–6,400 is the likely hold, and a COVID-style back test of the September lows would put SPX around 6,350. He protects with futures to generate cash flow, or by taking stops, so cash is ready for strong setups. Leaders keeping him on the bull side: Netflix pushing toward highs, AMD holding, and relative strength in Hims, Rocket Lab and The Trade Desk. He's long TTD for a 20–30% move, "about to bust a move," and will exit if his levels break.
He pointed to broken relationships: gold and the dollar both up, and small caps fading at their 2021 highs while names inside the IWM like Kratos, Duolingo, Hims and Tempus have been "beasting." A secondary breakout "should go bananas," so he sees it as broken without it having broken down yet. With competing scenarios, like Apple's weekly about to break out while First Solar, Tesla, crypto and Lemonade (stuck in a 50–57 range) go sideways, it's time to raise caution. He sold 80% of Rocket Lab on two weekly candles before it made all-time highs. He stopped out of a short-term trade at 52 after entering at 55. Anything can trigger a flush, like the Oracle–Nvidia rental headline, but 2017 and 2020 show the market can keep grinding higher. On the infinite money glitch, he said valuations are pricing in that future growth, and if it's just a glitch they'll revert. Jensen, "pretty kosher" and ahead of everyone since 1993, is investing in it. The October 26, 2022 turn came off Facebook's earnings. "Don't fight the trend," because when people name the cause of a top, they're usually wrong. His picks: Apple and Tesla; Hims, which "feels weak but refuses to be weak" against about 40% short interest; First Solar, "fully symmetrical of the last move"; and OPEN as a short-term trade heading toward 15, for 25–30% or a 5% stop. He likes Intel, long from 24 and talking his book. It isn't expensive, could retake its dot-com highs, and has a government stake behind it.
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