Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back from Stocktoberfest
03:04 Welcome Back, Cookie & GP's Collarbone
06:13 Strong Q4? Nick's Trend-Following Week
08:15 Still Too Bearish? Sentiment & Fear & Greed
11:01 Stair Steps Higher & "We're Not Bullish Enough"
13:35 The Jensen Trend & the NQ Extension
16:13 Amazon Conserving Cash: Red Flag or PR?
20:32 Semis as the Market's Proxy
23:11 Why Don't People Believe Jensen?
25:43 GP: The Wealth Manager on the Plane
30:25 Cookie: AMD's Double Bear Market & 2017 Fractal
33:40 What Drove the Last Chip Boom
36:28 Accelerated Computing & the Hardware Replacement Cycle
41:11 Cookie: Micron's Measured Move to $1,900
43:48 2008–09 in Reverse
45:54 Where That Leaves Nvidia & $SOXL
47:29 Nvidia to 350, a Round Trip, Then 800
53:47 Crypto Moves with Semis
55:21 XBI's Fractal & a Q2 2026 Pullback
58:02 6G & the Next Bear Market
1:03:29 Nick: SPX Measured Move to 13,000
1:06:05 Pro-Business Policy & GP's Third-Year Theory
1:08:41 Cookie: Tesla's Parabola to 1,600–2,000
1:12:58 Why Being a Bull Is Hard
1:20:19 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #151 went out live on Tuesday, October 28, with Ben, Nick and GP back from Stocktoberfest in Coronado and Cookie_M back as guest. GP was nursing a collarbone he broke falling off a bike. Cookie's big idea was "we're not bullish enough." He built the long-term case from basic TA and the demand drivers behind it: AMD's 2017 fractal, Micron's measured move, Nvidia's path to 350 and then 800, XBI's fractal and a likely Q2 2026 pullback, the next bear market lining up with 6G, and Tesla's parabola. The hosts covered sentiment, Amazon's "conserve cash" layoffs, the wealth manager on GP's flight, SOXL, an SPX measured move and why being a bull is hard. Someone on the panel was watching a 30K NQ area and a 161% extension at 26,000 on the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC).
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie said the bears sounded the same in August as they do now: "It's gone up too much... I'm 50% cash." He was a little disappointed the market didn't give a deeper pullback. Since June it has repeated a cycle three times, going sideways for a month and then up for 10 days, and he saw it coming three months ago. The pullbacks, consolidations and moves between them have all matched. "The big idea is we're not bullish enough." Even the longs are capitulating because they think it's too much, when "we're at the beginning of something." He said to focus on the primary trend, which could last three or four years, not on where corrections are hiding, because otherwise "we're forever waiting for the correction and so we're forever under invested." On Amazon's layoffs, take what companies say with a pinch of salt, since much of it is strategy. "The only thing that you can really take at face value is how much they're spending." He sees AMD's return as huge news: an all-supply-constrained race going from one horse to several, with AMD getting repriced the way Nvidia was three years ago. He uses semis as a proxy: the market can rise without them, "but it's unlikely that the semiconductors go up without the market going up as well." Wall Street has been lousy at riding tech waves, and during the early phases of innovation cycles, "you can throw all of that crap down the toilet" on valuation metrics like the Buffett indicator and P/E.
AMD had two bear markets (2022–23), as it did from 2010 to 2016. Back then it rallied about 213% from the lows to the breakout, and then did 28–30x in three years. This time it's already up about 224% from the April lows. There's no guarantee, but it can't be ruled out, and it would mean something like $5,000 in five years, from a company already worth trillions. The 2017–18 chip boom wasn't just low volatility. It came from crypto mining, the smartphone and tablet replacement cycle with 5G, and EVs, which use 3,000–4,000 chips each. Now AI and what Jensen calls "accelerated computing" will force a hardware replacement at the corporate and consumer level, along with new hardware like glasses, AR/VR, robots and autonomous cars. "I only need it to be as big. I don't need it to be bigger." AMD is "only just beginning," just as it was at $11 before it went to 150, and it's "only just beginning at 250."
Micron has already gone from $60 to $220 in six months. It's breaking out of a consolidation that began in 2008, and the wedge's measured move is about $1,900. He thinks people try to short it because they haven't seen the big picture. He expects a 2008–09 "in reverse," a two-year move up. Buy dips as close to the prior month's low as you can until it starts making lower monthly lows. He sees that running to around 2028 and $1,900, then a possible 50% pullback. He isn't sure Nvidia rises as fast as AMD from here, so AMD may be the better trade for two to three years, but Nvidia shouldn't be a laggard. His four-year-old Nvidia monthly chart uses the 2018 rectangle measured move. Nvidia stalled for three months at the midline resistance near 195. Taking out 195 opens 330, about 350 by around April. Then he expects a serious correction, a near round trip back to about 210–230, before the journey to 800 resumes. The XBI fractal from 2022 matches its 2010 breakout. He sees it at about 160–170, another 50%, by March–April, then a pullback from around 150 to 100 that back tests the wedge around July 2026. "This is just the appetizer," and the real run follows.
Crypto and semis are "all just risk assets" on different points of the spectrum. He doesn't buy the safe-haven idea for Bitcoin. He sees Ethereum leading through stablecoins, maybe with Solana, and all of crypto rising together. Markets tend to fall when major tech changes roll out, like 5G in 2020. He thinks data transmission will be AI's bottleneck and that 6G, slated for about 2031–32, lines up with the next major bear market. The AI age runs from 2026 to 2030, with a serious bear from 2030 to 2032. His 2023 Tesla chart shows a parabola since 2013 heading toward 2,000 by 2027. It also forecast the April correction as a back test like COVID. "Time's run out. It's got to go vertical from here." He'd be disappointed if Tesla isn't at 1,600 by mid- to late next year. It could struggle at 700, the channel midline, for a few months while the moving averages catch up, then reach the green box's 1,600 measured move. "It's moved a lot, but it hasn't even started yet." He's fully invested and FOMOing into dips, as he was "all the FN" two months earlier. He always asks what would need to happen in the world for a chart to play out, because "the chart precedes the news."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick called it a great stretch for "a brainless trend trader." A few trail stops got hit and momentum trades took off, but "everything that I'm just sitting in just continues to work." He thinks constant information from Robinhood, Twitter and TV makes it really hard for newer investors to stay bullish, which is why every leg higher gets fought. Global satellite coverage is another piece people aren't grasping, since it would raise living standards worldwide. Measuring legs on the SPX back to the 1920s with his most conservative trend angle, he gets a measured move around 13,000. Its timing lines up with Cookie's 2030–31 window. A 50% correction from 13,000–14,000 would still only come back to about 7,000, and he wants to "take full advantage to the downside" of the next bear. Cookie's 6G idea will be a red flag he watches for. Late in the show he said it "takes balls to hold" in a bull like this.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben shouted out Howard and the StockTwits team for Stocktoberfest. He didn't think sentiment was overly bearish: the Bank of America gauge showed about 62% bullish, and Fear & Greed was at 39, "smack dab in the middle" of fear, "a healthy bunch" of worry. He called the holdouts "miserable bears" sitting on cash they'll never use. He'd posted a chart of the stair steps higher on StockTwits. On why people doubt the rally, he pointed to the miserable bears plus fear that "how good is too good" after the run since April. SOXL is his second-largest position and has "done very well for the bags family" since April–May. He scales back when it consolidates sideways and goes all in when it takes off.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "It's the Jensen trend." Jensen just invested in Nokia ("made Nokia relevant again") and says the entire boat is rising, "screaming at the top of his lungs in a very quiet voice that the markets are going higher." He asked why people don't believe "the leading tech person of every major technological shift in the last 30 years." He told the story of a San Francisco wealth manager on his flight home who said, "Good luck. I hope you don't lose it all." His point was that you can be bullish long term and tactically short during corrections to build cash and get even longer. Earlier he'd said a correction to about 6,100–6,200 was possible, his "wet blanket" level, and once price got back over 50% of that move, "game over... buy it." He still wishes he'd gotten that 6,100 because the liquidity would have made "these moves not grinds, but launch points," but "you've got to trade the markets in front of you." His theory is that the third year of Trump's presidency will be rocky and hard to trade, though not a massive correction. In a regime of 2–4% index corrections with underlying corrections in many names, "until these technical shifts start breaking on a more monumental basis, you've got to lean to the bull side."
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