Chapters
00:00 Intro: Apple Up While the Market's Down
02:07 GP: Signs of 2021
08:07 Nick: Chop Into Next Year, Not a 2022?
11:19 Ben: "A Complete Tone Change"
14:41 GP's Positioning: $MSTR, $FUBO & Stops
16:46 Netflix: The Split & the Rising 50-Week
18:58 Nick: Don't Fill the QQQs Gap; GP Long NQ
21:39 Ben: Nothing's Broken
25:29 Drugs, Energy & Money; Small Caps Lag
29:43 Crypto, Cramer & Burry
32:58 Does This Feel Like a Bubble?
36:04 GP Back Long Gold & Silver; Oil & GUSH
39:14 Tesla: 400, 470 & the Measured Move
46:44 $LHX & Wayfair's Character Change
50:31 $SHOP's High-Volume Candle & Island
53:16 Ben: The Island Is Strength
54:53 Archer, Joby & Drones
59:49 $RKT & the 50-Year Mortgage
1:07:36 Final Words
Market Hours #153 went out live on Tuesday, November 11, Veterans Day, with Ben, Nick and GP. The QQQs were down about three-quarters of a percent while Apple was up, and GP said that dichotomy was giving him "vibes of 2021." Ben called it "a complete tone change" from the man who had spent weeks saying "you're not bullish enough." GP explained he's still positioned bullish with stops, and Ben and Nick argued nothing's broken. They covered Netflix's split, crypto and Cramer, whether this is a bubble, GP's gold, silver and oil, Tesla's measured moves, L3Harris, Wayfair and Shopify, drones and the 50-year mortgage.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the trend is up and he sees most day-to-day action as backfilling. "There's days to just check." If GP is right that this resembles late 2021, he'd expect sideways chop into the new year, maybe a descending channel on SPY, rather than a full-year bear. He could see an eight-to-12-week correction, not a 2022. Netflix had a breakout failure in late June, pulled back, undercut the range, pulled into the 200-day and put in a three-week tight. He steers clear of calling tight closes a bear flag. He wanted the SPY and QQQs to push out sooner rather than later, or price will look like a lower high. He's still "mega bold," but the QQQs put in an island reversal candle off the 50-day, and he doesn't want that gap backfilled. A base going sideways would look pretty technically, though "really uncomfortable." The 200-day is now above the late-2024/early-2025 highs in SPY and the QQQs. He thinks drugs, energy and money (IBB, XLE, XBI) will keep running together. As for why the market wasn't moving out, he pointed to Cookie's shutdown "apex point," which hadn't been reached yet. To him, a bubble moves vertically, not in a 45-degree grind.
On Tesla, it bottom-ticked off the 50-day. Under 400 he'd peel a lot off, so he wants 400 held at the low end of the range. Measuring from the 340–350 breakout gives a leg to 470, and taking out the highs sets up 500–530. "I like it when you stack measured moves" on lower time frames with larger time-frame implications. Nothing confirms until the high pivot is taken out, and bears are probably calling a double top. A break of 400 measures back to the 200-day around 330–340, where he'd add back if he'd peeled off. On the daily, watch the high-volume candles: the September 15 bar started the current range and the October 2 high caps it. Price creeping into the September 12 candle's body would mean downside range expansion. On L3Harris (LHX), he loves expensive stocks and round numbers. He'd like it to chop around 300 with the short-term moving averages, and a pull to about 276–280, a double wick-high retest, or even 266 would be a great entry.
Using Shopify as an example, he said it has traded around its August 6 high-volume candle ever since. On Monday, it pulled back into that candle and then formed a candle-by-candle island reversal. That's a phenomenal entry against 160, risking four or five points under the day's low. He's "mega bullish on drones" as the future, like humanoids, but they're all speculation, so the setups have to be there. Archer is at the bottom of its range with an island reversal, risking about $2 down to 7. There's a lot of volume in the range since May, which you could read as accumulation or distribution. He thinks Joby looks better than Archer and holds above its big base. He said a 50-year mortgage could let disciplined buyers lower payments and still pay it off early, and inflation isn't going anywhere. His last word: "Just focus."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben noted Apple was up about 1.25% while the QQQs fell, while Nvidia was down about 3.5%, Baba was trending down and semis were getting whacked. He said GP's caution was "a bucket of cold water to the face," coming right after weeks of "you're not bullish enough," and that 2022 was painful for anyone without cash. GP's plan to go from 10% to 30–35% cash on stops sounded like a lot, though exiting your least-conviction names first "is just being practical." His own read: price action is "a little squeamish, but nothing's broken." Friday's bounce came on the highest volume since April, and "I don't think that goes unrewarded." He's bullish through year-end. Apple's behavior fits their mega-cap rotation thesis of new leadership taking time, and he can see some early-Q1 scaries. "I just don't know that I'm ready for a 2022 redo."
He'd been watching crypto not doing what it should in its cycle, but "a bounce back still isn't out of the question." The market has "fissures, not fractures." Cramer warning about an AI bubble alongside Michael Burry made him think "that's the bottom's in." He doesn't know why people give Burry oxygen. He also doesn't see as many bubble companies now, or as much money in them, as in the last bubble, and he'll research it. He switched to the weekly on Tesla, which he says looks like consolidation above all the prior candles, "building energy," above prior all-time highs around 425, and the monthly looks best. He'd be out of a new Tesla trade on a break of the 50-day without waiting for 400. He likes LHX long term after it frustrated him for a while. Shopify's island, with the most volume on the island candle and then a gap up to consolidate, is "market strength." On Archer and Joby, he can't parse the signal from the noise, so he moves on to something easier: "It's too hard." He noted that a $300,000 house costs about $1 million over a 30-year mortgage and nearly $2 million over 50 years, so it doesn't solve supply-driven affordability. His dad joke: three people in a relationship is a threesome, two is a twosome, "but I'm just wondering why they call you both handsome."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said he's bullish overall but sees signs of 2021. Monday's big day was concentrated in Nvidia and a few names. Tesla keeps opening weak and going sideways, and Apple "only goes up when the market goes down," acting like a defensive stock. In 2021, Nvidia made a final push higher while Roku, Block and Wayfair were snapped 50–60%. Then the mega caps joined the downside and those names fell another 60–70%. Oracle had capitulation volume off earnings "and hasn't seen a single day higher." The QQQs trend may be up, "but it's sideways across the market if not down." Everyone expects a massive year-end move, which often doesn't play out, though up years tend to finish up. He's lived through the dot-com bust, the GFC, COVID and 2022's 37% QQQs drop, and "not to take a look at different trends and biases change, then I'm not doing my job." Crypto "cannot find buyers meaningfully," and Netflix's 10-for-1 split could make it dead money, as after the 2015 split and Amazon's and Google's in 2022–23. It is holding its rising 50-week for the first time since 2023, though, and he sees nothing wrong with the company.
He's still positioned "not bullish enough," with less than 10% cash. If the market stops behaving, his stops on lower-conviction names lift him to 30–35% cash. He took Strategy at a pivot the day before ("if it breaks here, I'm out") and Fubo long last week. He hasn't touched AMD or Intel. On reopening day, small caps hit the 2024 highs and then sold off to fill the gap, which after four years sideways "has got to be caution." Breakouts should consolidate above pivots, not below. The IWM is consolidating under its 2024 and 2021 highs, and the XBI, regional banks, XLE and XLF were up while small caps were red. He was long NQ futures at 25,510 and sticking to short-term trends. The QQQs doubling in five months in 1999–2000 was a bubble, and "none of that stuff" is here.
He's bullish gold and silver. He shorted gold, closed his long the day before, waited for consolidation and was back long. It's the first 10% correction in the first up leg, about 3,300 to 4,300, which is typically buyable, and silver was outperforming gold. Natural gas looks good, and oil "looks like it's about to break out." He joked about Nick top-ticking GUSH back in November 2022. On LHX, the monthly is a little concerning, with a look above and fail on higher volume. Over about 308.12 it goes higher. Wayfair showed a character change by staying above its stage-one base during weakness. He didn't like Shopify basing below its 2021 pivot after failing there. On Archer, its quarterly shows selling at the top of the range with wicks and an outside reversal candle, "so no thanks." He likes Rocket Companies (RKT) but not its high-volume candle. He sees nothing wrong with a 50-year mortgage helping younger buyers into starter homes, and money is worth more today than in 50 years. He took a 25-year mortgage himself, at the same rate, to save $80,000 in interest. Nick summed up GP's last word in two words: "gold bug."
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