Chapters
00:00 Intro: Turnaround Tuesday?
00:34 GP: Meta Retests the April 9 Candle & the S&P 6,740
03:17 Nick: Stochastics, Netflix & Bitcoin's Measured Move
05:57 QQQs: The Neckline, 10/10 & 10/13 Volume Bars
08:38 When Do You Buy? Momentum vs. Position Traders
10:47 Ben Goes Full Bore: SOXL & Nvidia
12:59 Chips Retest the 50-Day & $DKNG
14:00 Risk-On Indicators: IWM, XBI & Tesla
15:46 "Tesla 550" & Ben's Flag in Nvidia
19:31 2020 vs. 2021 Vibes on the QQQs Monthly
23:08 Where Do Retests End?
27:54 Bottom or Lower? Nick vs. GP's 90/10
32:51 Volume on the Right Shoulder: The Pain Trade Is Higher
39:54 Fewer Participants & Blow-Off Tops
42:03 Hims, First Solar & the Sphere
43:37 Relative Strength Names: $NXT & Embraer
45:48 Ben's Process: Weekly Charts & Nvidia at 182
51:09 GP: Rates, the 10-Year & Small Businesses
55:32 Nick: Numerology, Price Is Truth & Journaling
1:00:21 Final Words
Market Hours #154 went out live on Tuesday, November 18, the day before Nvidia earnings, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP called it "turnaround Tuesday" after weeks of weakness with no bounce, and everyone admitted to feeling "raw on the insides." Meta was retesting the close of its April 9 candle, the S&P was back at GP's 6,740 fib, and small caps were retesting the election breakout. Nick's watch list had paid off on Netflix and Bitcoin, Ben went "full bore" into SOXL and Nvidia, and GP got roasted for his "Tesla 550" call. Asked for odds, Nick and Ben leaned lower and GP said "90/10 higher." GP argued the head-and-shoulders volume says the pain trade is higher, and they finished on rates, numerology and journaling.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said SPY's slow stochastics were finally reaching oversold, and the McClellan's lowest tick that morning was about -178, short of -200. Taking a page from GP's playbook, he focused on Netflix and Bitcoin. Netflix was sitting on its 200-day after the split, three weeks tight on the 200-day on the weekly. In the Mag 7, Meta sold off, Amazon got hit, Google held up and Microsoft flirted with 500. Tesla versus 400 is a level to play against. It's either a capitulation day or the start of something deeper into year-end. He hates head and shoulders patterns, but the QQQs had one on the daily and cracked its neckline that morning. On the NQ, the 10/10 and 10/13 bars are the two highest-volume bars since the April bottom, and price undercut Monday's low and was reclaiming it. That completed an ABCD with the D at Friday's low, and measured moves usually get at least a tradable bounce. From cash, it's worth a starter, but he wants a bounce, some sideways action and a higher low.
Bitcoin's 107–125 range projected a measured move to 90,000. It drilled 90,000 and bounced on heavy volume, which he called a day-one rally attempt. Losing the 200-day was "a major refresh." The pretty version is a bounce to 105–107, a pullback that holds 100 and an inverse head and shoulders "for a pop and a major leg higher." On when to buy: position and trend traders can build here, while momentum traders wait for an ABCD leg off the lows with a real pivot. He liked DraftKings' weekly higher low. He'd start above 30.50–32, targeting the top of the range at 47–48, and it's a giant cup and handle on higher time frames, "make or break." He's had internal flip-flopping between 2020 and 2021 vibes and expects 2026 to be a monster year, though a voice says they'll chop into year-end first. His Nvidia measured move is 235–240, then likely 300 before a long rest.
Asked for odds, he leaned lower. A gap and run in Nvidia makes the neckline break a bear trap. Otherwise, with fibs from the May 12 igniter bar, he'd "back the truck up" around 545–555. A five-week tight at 575 has him leaning toward 575–585 holding, though the head-and-shoulders measured move is about 565, at a gap fill near the rising 200-day. A break and hold of that gap would set up a V. He agreed the pain trade is higher. It's a bull market correcting, not a bear market, and a breakout from the left-shoulder volume should come on expanding volume. He pointed to relative-strength names like Nextracker (NXT), the alt-energy and solar names, drugs and Embraer. He layers his information diet from performance psychology to numerology, and 2026 is "a one year" that marks a beginning, "but price is truth," and the charts decide. He said journaling, scanning and setting alerts on the weekly chart are a retail trader's best friends against overtrading. His own pitfall is wanting to redeploy right after a stop: "Just lay off the keys."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben pointed out the VIX wasn't at 30 yet, though GP said it had no reason to be in the mid-20s. He reopened his SOXL trade, "full bore," and Nvidia became his third-largest holding, bought before earnings. "I'm embracing the degen economy." He roasted GP for the previous Monday's "Tesla 550 by end of week," since Tesla was down about 10.5% since then: "I'll turn bullish when GP turns bearish." He's tired of the chip-bubble talk and loves when a name gets hated. In five years, today's price won't matter, so "why shouldn't I just buy the best company in the universe and say, 'This is where I'm planting my flag.'" He asked whether the retests are done or there are 10–20 more points to find support. The only rock-solid level he'd bet the farm on is the 540 breakout, and he leaned lower on odds.
GP asked how he handles days like this. He said he doesn't care what the charts look like right now, because they repair through time or price. He loves to buy Monday's bounce, or Tuesday if Monday keeps selling, and he had cash to burn. He looks for long wicks, and he got Nvidia at about 182, two tranches near his first stake, without betting on a drop to 170. He's betting Nvidia "saves everybody's bacon," with daily stochastics oversold. He was wrong about crypto through October, so "you've got to let those stops happen." He trades weekly and monthly charts for compounding: "If I'm wrong on Nvidia in five years, I'm pretty sure 182 is going to be 'Oh man, I wish I bought more.'" He loves the Sphere (SPHR) on a possible Taylor Swift residency in Vegas, but won't front-run it. He'd look for an entry on weakness. His last word: stick to your process, and he told Mrs. Bags she should embrace her mistakes, "and she gave me a hug."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that after no bounce, "today we opened and you finally had the slaughter that we needed in the generals." Meta was retesting the close of its April 9 "boner candle," 200 points straight down since earnings, a full seven-month retest, "at least a tradable bounce." The S&P was at the 6,740 fib, "a pain since September." Small caps were retesting the election breakout, and the VIX was near the tail end. He put money to work in Meta: it tagged 587.77 and closed at 585 on April 9, so the risk is about half a percent against that pivot. Chips were retesting across the board: Intel, KLA and Lam at the 50-day, AMD at its high-volume candle high, ASML and Dell. "I love these flushes into major earnings... they work in the bull's favor." He counted risk-on signals: the IWM, the XBI and drugs, and Tesla, which showed relative strength three days running. Crypto is just an oversold bounce until it proves itself. He owned the "terrible call" on Tesla 550.
He's been torn between 2020 and 2021. On the QQQs monthly, September–October 2020 sucked for two months after the SoftBank gamma squeeze before grinding higher. But a lot of stocks underneath are getting murdered, which feels like 2021. If it's 2020 again, he could see chop into year-end while funds reposition for 2026. Hims and Bitcoin bottomed 10–12 days before the market in April, so the VIX can spike another week or two with tradable pivots. The QQQs were inside last month's candle after seven green months. A break of the prior month's low around 589 could accelerate, but there was no look-above-and-fail bull trap. He put it at "90/10 higher," or maybe 80/20. On a head and shoulders, the volume should come on the left shoulder and head, where they distribute into strength, and here it's all on the right side. "All the panic, all the selling has already happened," and the pattern hasn't broken.
He argued the pain trade is higher because the last month stopped out a huge number of people. Investors are down 20–40% in names even with the QQQs down about 5%. Meta, Microsoft and Oracle had "capitulation to the upside" on earnings, the final distribution, and Meta just tagged its April 9 high. Market obliterations over the last five to seven years leave fewer participants, and that lack of participants is what eventually produces blow-off tops, like the QQQs' 100% move in five months in 2000. Hims and First Solar were unusually strong. On rates, he's frustrated with a political, data-dependent Fed while small businesses that fought through the hike cycle need cuts to "unlock what American power is about." The 10-year Treasury futures (ZN) are at the top of a base, coiling against the declining weekly 200 with the 50-week starting to curl, so he leans toward more significant rate cuts. Downtrends take a lot of work to change, as with UNH and Celsius, and bonds are at that point. The 2022 monetary shift may be reversing into 2026. His last word: "2025 is the year of the snake. 2026 is the year of the horse," a snaky market with "the horsepower coming."
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