Chapters
00:00 Intro: Ben Recovering, GP at the Ski Chalet
02:09 IWM Leads & the QQQs' Failed Head and Shoulders
05:53 GP: Sentiment Washout & a Follow-Through Day
09:42 What to Get Long: Names Clearing Thursday's High
12:23 Relative Strength: Drugs, Mag 7 & $AAPL
15:03 Ben: Apple's Turn & $SNPS
19:50 "Don't Make Hard Harder"
22:30 GP: $META's 10-to-1 Trade & $MSFT at the 200-Day
25:16 Nick: Social Media Targets vs. the Chart
29:29 GP's Tools: Stops, Cash & the Three-Trade Rule
33:39 Rejection Is Redirection & Being Kind to Yourself
35:46 Ben: Me vs. Me & Patience
39:33 Just a Speculator
41:39 Chat Charts: $LVS, $WYNN & $TSLA's Spring
45:28 Trading Short Weeks & GP's $MSFT Puts
47:07 $LMND & $HCA
49:49 Expensive Small Caps: $DDS, $GHC, $CVCO & $PIPR
53:30 $SNPS Under 400 & ARKK's Base Retest
57:42 No-Revenue Names & the 2021 Darlings
1:01:31 Final Words
Market Hours #155 went out live on Tuesday, November 25, Thanksgiving week, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben was recovering from surgery ("I'm incapacitated"), so Nick drove the charts, and GP joined from his ski chalet. After the November 20 washout, the IWM was leading and had cleared Thursday's high. Nick and GP agreed the QQQs' "head and shoulders" had already failed into a follow-through day. The crew talked about finding relative strength, Apple's turn to lead the rotation, Synopsys and GP's 10-to-1 Meta trade. GP explained how stops and cash give him clarity, and they talked about being kind to yourself. They finished with expensive Russell 2000 names, ARKK's base retest and a warning on no-revenue darlings.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the IWM is leading: it pushed through the 50-day, reclaimed the low of its 236–237 range and took out the high of the October 20 bar. If you saw the QQQs as a head and shoulders, they were reclaiming the neckline, a bear trap, and pushing into a flat 50-day under declining short-term averages. A sideways chill here could curl those averages up. The November 20 bar is an easy one to play against. The real entry was through its high at 597–598, risking to the 580 low. Trail stops were triggered for a lot of short-term traders, so they should have dry powder. The McClellan barely tapped -200, which made shorting hard. He compared it to GP's 2021 Lam Research point: a violent neckline break with no follow-through. Two- and three-times ETFs are what he's getting long, though GP warned they decay if the market isn't trending.
He said people underrate relative strength in corrections: "It's the easiest and the fastest money." He likes Tesla, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Graham Holdings (GHC), Progyny (PGNY) and the drug names, with Lilly still ripping. To play it safe, he'd lean into the Mag 7 names showing strength: Meta, Spotify, Microsoft, and Oracle "if Oracle can ever get it together." Apple has been anti-market lately, green when the market is red and weak when it turns green, so he'd join if it follows through. Synopsys has a three-week tight at the bottom of a 300-point base range, so "you should be able to make your year off a 300-point range." He finds it hard to hold swing shorts because he's "too optimistic." He told his dad, who DCAs Bitcoin, to leave "puke orders" every 5K–10K down.
On the Meta-to-480 call, he could see the reasoning but disagreed. Price couldn't push into the high-volume candle to test its low, which signaled a reversion, so shorting there is "asking for a world of hurt." The risk-reward favors the bounce, risking to 580. Now it's pushing into the 20-day, and the dream is a tight range and then a gap up for an island bottom. When people struggle with stops, he said, it often comes down to rejection: "rejection is redirection," because the market is telling you it's the wrong name or the wrong time. He doesn't care much about the ticker: "It's about flipping dollars." Whether he holds depends on the plan, trend trade or momentum trade. "If you miss this setup, move on to the next one."
From the chat, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has a 30-point weekly range that could expand toward 100, and Wynn is starting to stair-step. He loves Tesla here. If this isn't the spring, he'd be surprised, unless the overall market legs down. On Lemonade, the high-volume bar signaled it wasn't ready, then it reverted to the bar's low end, spiked the range lows and reclaimed them. That's a low-risk entry with "all the huckles stacked accordingly." The next cheater entry is through the recent candle high, then the pivot high, or it risks becoming dead money. He spotted a four-week tight on a rising 30-week in Piper Sandler (PIPR) and liked a breakout failure off a prior spring that held the 200-day. On ARKK, it's the first test of the rising 30-week after going stage two. He said blown-out small-cap growth names like Rigetti are harder to buy on weakness than real leaders. His sign-off was a joke: he's reading a book on anti-gravity, and "it's impossible to put it down."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said they've been inside Thursday's bar since November 20, so "we're staying in a range for now." Friday's low is "the ejector seat," and anything can play while price builds inside the bar. He argued Apple is now in favor, like Caesar coming home to Rome. Watching CNBC from his recovery bed, he saw a whole Power Lunch on how Apple got the AI race right by not overspending on capex. The chart broke out of a range into a four-week tight at highs. "Mega caps rotate," and after Google led five months ago, "it's time for Apple to take its lead." He's long Synopsys (SNPS), which overcame its Thursday high and is ready to break its range. He expects it to outperform names like ASML. He'd add shares under 400 even though he usually sits out short weeks, with the weekly candle's high acting as a magnet. "I don't think you have to look too hard to find winners." As he said in Coronado: "Shit's too hard. I want to find easy trades."
He said social media is full of people who are always right, but "it's me versus me": you have to be happy with your process and your P&L, and "hopefully my conviction isn't their conviction." The three of them have handed each other winners they never touched because they stayed in their own processes. His main tool is patience. If a stock never hits his line, he gets involved anyway if he wants in, and an even-keeled mindset "really helps me parse the signal from the noise." He usually doesn't trade short weeks because the low volume "isn't usually emblematic of any trend." He still likes Roku to go higher. He got stopped out of Tempus AI at about 65 when it broke his level. "Maybe it goes now without me, but I'm okay."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP called 10/10 the bottom last week, then Thursday proved him wrong "for a minute" before fully reversing. Newbies call it a head and shoulders, but it already failed, and the volume came on the right side. There was a warning shot on October 10, then a massive drop on Thursday, a sentiment and volume washout that double-bottomed against the 10/10 lows. The reversal came on a Friday, unusual for seasonality, and Monday was the follow-through day. "This is the same exact setup" as April. First, he looks for every stock that cleared Thursday's high: the IWM and almost everything under it, plus Meta, gold, silver, Amazon, Broadcom, and retail like Lulu and Nike. The 10-year kept falling and "was saying, 'BS, we don't believe you, the Fed.'" The IWM's up-volume beat the prior day's sell volume, "your number one indicator that risk is on."
He said identifying relative strength matters because things can go up and still underperform. Meta spent four or five days at its April 9 pivot, 582.83 to 587, and then reached 630. That was under 1% risk, about $4 to make $45, "a 10 to one return." Microsoft is in the same process, testing its 200-day. His biggest tool is stops: they raise cash, and cash gives mental clarity. He was 30-something percent cash on Thursday and started deploying Friday, at 1–2% risk per trade. He's "not afraid of buying higher," because cost basis is irrelevant if you're making money, and getting stopped out "should be a blessing." He uses a three-trade rule: three bottom attempts at 1% risk each, and if all three stop out, he can't identify the bottom or the market's broken. "Be kind to yourself... The tools are empathy, clarity and focus." Meta trades at 19–20 times earnings and still retested its April 9 bar. Trading has real-world impact, so "if you're not going to be kind to yourself, you can't expect anyone else to."
On Tesla, it's an inverse head and shoulders "waiting for that piece of material news," strong while the market dumped and unable to find a buyer when the market went nuts, "in massive troll mode." He's been wrong for months on the big breakout, but it's still 30% higher than when he started being wrong. Holiday weeks tend to be bullish, so he trades the accelerated decay. He closed sold Microsoft puts during the show for about $4–5 a contract, selling puts rather than calls because he expected an up week. Lemonade "is the death of me": it stops him out, then gaps up 40% on earnings. "Expensive stays expensive," and the Russell 2000 sorted by price is full of them: Dillard's (DDS), Graham Holdings (GHC) and Cavco (CVCO), the last one "hasn't even broken out yet," plus PIPR. He's a no on Biogen, "the widow maker." ARKK broke out of its 2022 base and came back to retest it, "an extremely powerful setup," so every Weinstein-style trader should be on it. You either buy near 71 or wait to clear 78–79, and it's an ETF, so it won't drop 10% in a day. He warned that no-revenue names like Oklo and Rigetti, after 10–15x years, "are pretty much done." Their low-volume pullbacks are slow distribution, like Zoom, Peloton and Roku in 2021–22. Roku bought at a 50% discount in 2021 is still 50% underwater, and Block, PayPal and DocuSign have been dead money for years.
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