The recap
Nick, Ben and GP went live early for Market Hours #212 because it was Fed Day. FOMC was due in the afternoon, with nobody expecting a rate move, and Microsoft, Google and ServiceNow were reporting after the bell. Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, MicroStrategy and SanDisk report tomorrow. Nick framed SPY as make-or-break, sitting under the September 21st low candle and right against the 50-day. His advice: if you're chasing today, you're late. The time to accumulate was last week through Monday.
Earnings season: sell first, ask later
GP's complaint is that the two-week run-up into earnings that megacaps used to get hasn't happened since 2021. Now they sell into the print. ServiceNow spent three days selling off before reporting, and META is back to its July-earnings level. SK Hynix crushed its numbers, but it had already been knocked from 199 down to 130 first. Ben fell back on his 60/30/10 rule: 60% of the time you get a reason to sell, 30% it's flat and 10% you get an upside surprise. Last week's overnight flush came with no real catalyst, and SK Hynix and Seagate have since shrugged it off, so GP's conclusion stands: nothing changes until the elections. Until then, either stay out or use these swings to build the long-term positions you want.
$TSLA: the channel breakout
All three hosts came into the show bullish on Tesla. Nick sees a descending channel off the November 2025 low that is now breaking out. He wants the move to hold around 375 and thinks price is gravitating back toward 500. GP called it the best-looking $1T+ chart out there. On the volume profile it has made higher highs since 2021 (414, then 488, then 498) and higher lows (100 in 2023, 200 in 2024). For entries, Nick laid out getting long around 390 with risk to 380 after Monday's close back above the pivot and the 200-day. Ben said he could be talked into 374, the July pre-earnings close, and GP pushed back that it shouldn't go back there. If they had to pick between Tesla and SpaceX, Tesla wins. Nick thinks SpaceX looks bear-flaggy: losing 140 opens a retest of 110, and he wants to see it trade above 155.
Crossovers and timeframe
Ben's backtest with Bags AI found no edge in a 20/50 crossover, on the daily or the weekly, for at least a month, because by the time it confirms, the move is often already 28–30% in. GP's answer was that it comes down to timeframe. The last weekly crossover in HIMS took it from $8 to $72, but that took six to nine months.
$SN: Sharks & Ninjas
GP has been on SharkNinja for about six months. Nick calls it the easiest layup to around 240: price is tight, it has doubled this year, and a pullback into the low 180s would still look fine. He gets the 40-point target by inverting the 155–160 to 195 range. Ben pointed to the big May sell bar on the weekly. The daily and monthly look more like accumulation, but volatility bars are there to put you on notice. Suggested alerts were 200 and 193.66. GP isn't shorting it, but he points out that this market hasn't rewarded breakouts and that algos love to trap breakout buyers. The verdict: this market needs Tesla and SharkNinja to lead.
Tonight and the midterms
Nick would rather see Google hold than Microsoft. Google's floor is 315, and if it loses that, 275 is the next stop. ServiceNow shouldn't gap below 140–141, and if it does, he wants buyers to step in right away like they did with Intuitive Surgical and Seagate. Ben's big-picture take was that elections have been a release mechanism, so wait until the week after the vote. A divided government with a Senate that can't pass anything has historically let business keep doing business.
Key takeaways
Fed Day plus MSFT, GOOGL and NOW after the bell: don't chase the rally into it.
Earnings aren't being rewarded ahead of time; GP says nothing changes until the elections.
TSLA is breaking out of its channel with 500 as the magnet. Entries discussed: about 390 with risk to 380, or 374 on a pullback.
SpaceX: below 140 opens 110; it needs to clear 155.
SN: the "easiest layup" to about 240. The low 180s still work on a pullback, with alerts at 200 and 193.66.
GOOGL's floor is 315 (next stop 275); NOW shouldn't gap below 140–141.
Crossovers confirm late, so match your timeframe to your trade.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Fed Day: FOMC + $MSFT $GOOGL $NOW After the Bell
2:30 $SPY Make-or-Break at the 50-Day
4:08 Where Did the Pre-Earnings Runs Go? $META $NOW
6:12 SK Hynix & the 60/30/10 Earnings Rule
7:42 Last Week's Flush, Memory & $STX
10:31 Nothing Changes Until the Elections
12:34 Stair-Stepping Since the April 2025 Lows
14:23 The Shorts, Pension Rebalancing & Institutional Selling
16:51 $TSLA Breaking Out of Its Descending Channel
20:58 Tesla's Higher Highs Since 2021
23:01 Tesla vs SpaceX: Which Chart Are You Buying?
25:09 $TSLA Entries: 390, 380 & the 374 Pullback
30:51 $HIMS & the 20/50 Crossover: No Edge?
35:20 $SN SharkNinja: Easiest Layup to 240?
37:12 Volatility Bars & the May Sell Bar
39:46 Breakouts Have Been Terrible This Year
42:52 Following Smart Money & 13Fs
46:38 Is GP Fading SharkNinja? Breakout Traps
49:59 Tesla–SpaceX Merger & the Go-Private Crowd
51:39 What We Want From $MSFT $GOOGL $NOW Tonight
55:04 Why We're Waiting for the Elections
56:04 Midterms & a Divided Government
58:46 Wrap-Up
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod