Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M Is Back
00:36 Cookie_M: Same Prices, Worse Trends
02:07 GP: Netflix Is Up 50% From the Bottom
03:08 Cookie_M: The Market Is Orchestrated
06:13 Cookie_M: The S&P's Monthly Chart
10:16 Cookie_M: The 2015-2016 Analog
13:22 Cookie_M: A Failed Breakout Would Mean 300
14:55 Cookie_M: The 2008 Comparison
17:55 Cookie_M: Three Levels to Watch
18:25 Cookie_M: Expect a Sideways Year
20:27 Cookie_M: The 370 Bear Flag Support
21:59 Cookie_M: Everything Is the Same Chart
23:31 Cookie_M: Semis, Nvidia and AMD at Support
25:02 Cookie_M: ARK Holds Its Channel
26:35 Cookie_M: Bitcoin's 16,000 Support
28:36 Cookie_M: Ethereum Tracks the S&P
30:06 Cookie_M: Ethereum's Brown Pants Channel
35:11 Cookie_M: The Path Into the Fed
38:16 Cookie_M: Ethereum's 2017 Parallelogram
41:48 Cookie_M: Hold 1220 for a Rosier Picture
44:24 Cookie_M: The Long-Term Crypto Case
46:24 GP: Why Two Years and Not 14?
47:28 Cookie_M: Compound Innovation
50:35 Ben: Ethereum as the Market's Tell
54:11 Cookie_M: Life Will Go On
55:44 Cookie_M: The Sideways Upside Case
1:00:54 Cookie_M: Forecasting the Trend
1:02:27 Ben: Where Is Energy Headed?
1:03:28 Cookie_M: Oil's 2018 Analog
1:08:37 Cookie_M: Oil's Sweet Spot Between 70 and 90
1:10:42 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #39 went out live on Monday, September 19, with Ben and guest Cookie_M, and GP joined for the first part of the show. Nick was not on. Ahead of the Fed, Cookie_M walked through his monthly charts and argued that everything from the S&P to Ethereum is "the same chart." He said the market is not dead yet, with a sideways year as his base case. He covered the 370 bear flag support, Ethereum's 1220 level and 2017 fractal, compound innovation and oil's 2018 analog between 70 and 90.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said "even though we might be in the same similar price levels to where we're in june the trends look worse." On the S&P's monthly chart, "383.43 is the pivot," and "we're we're below a falling nine monthly moving average." The 2015-2016 sideways period "would be the best case outcome," while losing the 50-month moving average "made 2008 become what it did." "I will know that it's over if we get above the nine monthly moving average." "We need to be open to the idea that the market doesn't break out and it doesn't break down and it just drives everybody nuts for another year." "This will be the bear flag support 370. so 370 will need to hold this month," and "if we go below 317 it's probably game over." "It's all just one chart everything moves on the same," and "certain sectors are more elastic than others." Semis "are at the same decision point as everything else," and "amd at 75 is a monthly support." "Right now i wouldn't be diving into short positions just because we're at support."
On crypto, "we still have 16 000 as a support below" on Bitcoin, and "if we were to bounce off sixteen thousand we need to get back above twenty thousand otherwise it's probably game over." "The closest match to the s p is ethereum," and its current structure "is identical to the structure in 2017 before it went bonkers." He shorted Ethereum "at 1610 or 1605" and covered on the way down. In the near term, there's "possibly a run higher to this area around 1450," then "it tanks down to here so we end up down to around 12 45." "If we were to hold 1220 this would be the same as all of these other sectors holding support." Long term, it could "be at 6 000 in two years seven thousand two years." "Interest rates will go up and down inflation will go up and down but innovation will continue," because of "something that i call compound innovation." In the upside case, the S&P ranges "between 365 and 430 for the next two years." For oil, "my model for oil was that it was going to top the same way as it did in 2018," and "it ranges between 69 and 90 until the end of 2023." "Oil between 70 and 90 is probably good for the us economy."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben noted that back in June, Cookie_M "gave us some low price targets 220 on the qs around 300 on spy." He summed up that "chopping is still sort of your base case right and that can be painful on both ends of the trade." "People are losing interest because it's just been so difficult to trade and we've been in this now for nine months or more." On crypto, Ethereum is acting as the market's tell "to some degree," which could mean "a couple years of trading sideways regardless of you know what happens with bitcoin." On energy, "when you have multiple things on your charts breaking down to me that seems as a more bearish scenario is likely," and "if oil's dying usually tech and growth take off."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Netflix is up about 50% from the bottom, "so i'm happy with that performance." He pushed back on Cookie_M's timeline: "it took 14 years from 2000 to 2014 for that innovation to kind of play out," and "it wasn't amazon's bookstore that launched it into the stratosphere it was the 10 no 15 year mark where they launched aws."
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