Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:06 Ben: This Market Needs a Ledge
02:40 Crude Rockets
03:10 GP: The Macro Takes Over
06:45 GP: Currencies Break Things
07:49 Nick: SPY 300 to 330
10:26 GP: The 260-280 Batman and 164 on the QQQs
11:29 GP: Roku and Cisco's 2000 Collapse
14:34 GP: A 2000-Type Collapse and Years Sideways
16:08 Ben: Costco's Head and Shoulders
17:43 Ben: AMD's Billion-Dollar Miss
18:15 Cash and Higher Rates
21:21 GP: Amazon, Microsoft and Multiples
22:52 GP: The NASDAQ Composite Held Its June Lows
23:56 Ben: October Is Important
27:06 Nick: Refresh the Watch List
28:07 Nick: The Splits Were Bracing for Volatility
29:09 GP: Netflix Will Make or Break the Market
32:14 GP: Costco's Earnings
32:46 Ben: The Baseball Indicator
35:25 GP: Mortgages and the Housing Market
39:30 GP: Why He Thinks We Hold
44:43 Ben: Has the Fed Lost Credibility?
48:30 GP: Supply-Side Inflation
50:02 GP: Puts Have Underperformed
51:05 Ben: Bitcoin Holds Up
54:43 Ben: The Barron's Dollar Cover
56:47 GP: Double Tops Happen in Uptrends
57:48 Randy: Where's the Selling From?
58:49 GP: Netflix Is 77% Institutionally Owned
1:00:51 Ben: BlackRock, Berkshire, Citi and Salesforce
1:02:22 Etsy, Pinterest and Robinhood
1:04:56 Nick and GP: Gold
1:07:00 GP: The Marijuana Space
1:09:34 Wix and DraftKings
1:10:36 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #40 went out live on Sunday, October 9, with Ben, Nick and GP back after a few weeks off. Ben said the market had been a mess since GP talked him off the ledge, and bearish GP warned that a break here could get "disgustingly ugly." Nick eyed 300 to 330 on the SPY. The three also covered the QQQ levels, Costco, AMD's miss, Netflix as the make-or-break name, the housing market, the Fed's credibility, Bitcoin, the Barron's dollar cover, gold and a few names that still look good.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "I'm really eyeing like basically spy 300 to 330," and "we're sitting right on that four-year moving average 208 week SMA." For the QQQs, "that 200 to what is the 235 237" zone matters, and "the 150 to 190" range is "kind of like a response base." "The only bullish thing that we can really say at this moment is like are we gonna get a rally." "I think next year is when we're gonna really start to see maybe a change in character," so "keep running your scans" because "relative strength is what I want to pay attention to." On the Google, Amazon and Tesla splits, "they are bracing for impact for volatility." On Ethereum versus Bitcoin, "I think they're gonna annihilate them both." On gold, "I'm watching last month months High," "let's just say 162. that's my entry."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said Costco "looks like it's ready to break down it's below all of its EMAs it's got a nice head and shoulders formation." AMD's warning that it would be "a billion light" shows demand destruction "in the chips." "It's very important we see how October does," and seasonally "it's not a headwind." "That's the whole kind of point of dollar cost averaging," picking levels "as this thing starts to Crater." Only three teams have come back from more than seven runs in the postseason, in "1929 2008 and now 2022." "Does it matter what the FED does at this point or or are they just adding more pain to the process." Trading Bitcoin "from 18 and a half up to 20 has been profitable," and "there is increasing volume on the weekly chart." Barron's October cover had "the powerful Greenback," and "according to All-Star charts the dollar peaked a week later" after The Economist's 2016 version. "Overbought can stay overbought and oversold can stay oversold." "BlackRock looks like a flaming pile," and "berkshire's actually held up better than most." Goldman is an inverted cup and handle, "which is not a bullish formation," but Robinhood "looks better than others technically."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "I think my macro is starting to take over," with OPEC cuts and the SPR being drawn down into "demand destruction." "If this Market breaks here it gets disgustingly ugly," and "when currency do what they do are doing now they tend to break things pretty bad." "I'm in the camp that I've always been in and that we end up holding this like this area 260 to 280 area," but "I'm not in the camp that 237 holds" on the QQQs, and "I have 164 at a minimum." Roku "has already had an 87 move down," the entire move "of Cisco" in the dot-com collapse. If this breaks, he expects years of sideways. Walmart shows how a great company can lose "the multiple that they used to get." "The NASDAQ Composite... did not break its June lows," and "that's an inverted hammer." Netflix "is one of the ones that like it's it's gonna make or break whatever's happening in this market," with "60 percent of their revenue" in foreign currency. "The volume that's come in on the weekly during 2022 dwarfs every other year combined," and institutions are "using options to control the flow."
GP said Costco is "in a better position from a from from an inventory perspective" than Walmart and Target. About 75% of mortgages are under a 4% rate, and "the housing market tends to be the last one to really give us a flush bottom." "I'm still in the camp that we're gonna hold personally," but "if we don't then I'm out." On the quarterly, "I see the reversal candle on lower volume." "It's a supply side in inflation problem in my opinion and rates don't do anything but destroy the economy." So far, puts have underperformed "if you aren't a zero DTE Trader." "Double tops happen in uptrends." Netflix "is still 77 institutionally owned," which leaves "a lot of potential liquidity on the downside." Gold held the false breakdown he was looking for, and "if it behaves as it did in 2008... it was the start of a multi-year move." He's also watching the marijuana space, with MJ around $11 a share.
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