Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:35 Nick: Remember the LRCX Candle
02:09 Nick: The Indexes Held Half of Thursday
03:12 GP: Moving Averages Aren't Support in 2022
04:13 Friday's Reversal and Thursday's Engulfing Bar
07:50 Ben: The Price Action Is Still Down
10:24 Ben: Nothing Gets Him Out of the Bear Suit
12:30 Would a 10% Week Surprise You?
13:01 Ben: Treading Water Into Fish Food
14:32 Is 300 the Magnet?
16:37 Nick: The Megas Are the Last to Roll
17:08 Apple Hangs On
18:40 Ben: JPMorgan, Goldman and the Big Breakdowns
21:44 GP: They Don't Ring the Bell at the Bottom
24:17 Nick: A Measured Move to 222
27:24 GP: The Volume Vacuum Below
29:00 Nick: Relative Strength Scans
30:01 GP: Roblox and an Apathetic Market
32:02 Ben: The Bull's Bull Turns Bear
36:09 The Fed and Housing Inflation
39:16 GP: Apple Is Three Weeks Tight
42:21 GP: What Happens if Apple Breaks?
43:23 Nvidia and Revenue Multiples
46:57 SPACs, Bezos and Buffett
52:34 The 150 VIX Call Trade
57:45 GP: Big Option Bets and Intraday Flow
1:00:48 GP: Netflix and Tesla Earnings
1:03:20 Nick: Show Me a Real Bottom
1:03:53 GP: The NASDAQ Composite Trend Line
1:06:58 Ben: Banks, Abbott, Tesla and Opex
1:08:34 Regional Banks and Ally
1:09:07 Energy as a Hiding Place
1:11:14 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #41 went out live on Sunday, October 16, with Ben, Nick and GP. After Thursday's CPI reversal and Friday's fade, the three argued over whether anything had changed. Ben stayed in his bear suit, saying the price action is "still" pointing down. GP said Thursday's bar was different and that "they don't ring the bell at the bottom," and Nick mapped a measured move to 222 on the QQQs. They also debated Apple hanging by a thread, Netflix and Tesla earnings, Nvidia's valuation and a 150 VIX call trade.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "the spy and the QQQs they they were traced about 50 percent of Thursday's bar," and "price basically closed at that pivot low." He compared Thursday to the February 24 bar, "just being that we gapped basically down below those kind of pivot" levels "and then Rip." On the SPY, "it really feels to me like that 300 is the magnet." "If we start like it will say Tesla Amazon Google the bigger names within the NASDAQ if they start to really roll then we're going to see the capitulation." On the QQQs, "if you measure this leg down and you're calling this kind of your let's say a b c your D point is right down here at 222," and "typically when these measured moves hit we see a reversal." "This is where relative strength scans come in," because "the names that are the strongest are going to be near their their own respective all-time highs no matter what the indexes are doing." From a non-technical view, "the money supply is Contracting just pay attention to what the fed's doing." This week he's watching Tesla: "I want to see a real bottom put in I want to see like a a nice like ABCD leg up."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "the action is still the action is still" to the downside, and "I'm not looking at one day's candle and being like this is different." He "made over 100" on Friday puts because "this is textbook 2022." "I did a whole chart storm on charts for charity this morning and nothing has gotten me out of my bear suit yet." "I believe the first two weeks of November are also going to be important." "I would be surprised at a 10 week absolutely." On SentinelOne and Netflix, "you tread water into your fish food." JPMorgan "has completely erased all of its 2021 gains," and Goldman shows a "reverse cup and handle." "Tesla already broke that neckline," and UnitedHealth is "breaking down." "Price is number one." Looking back at 2020, the QQQs went "143 percent" off the COVID low, and "if you take your charts and you invert them you're going to see a very similar thing that is happening." "I'm a bull's bull," and the old saying goes that when the last bull turns bear, you're near a bottom. This week, Goldman and J&J report Tuesday, Abbott and Tesla Wednesday, and "it is an Opex week." Ally "reports on Wednesday," which "might give us some some light at what regionals might look like." On energy, "I don't like either one of them."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "those moving averages have not been real on the upside," and on the downside "those are not support not in 2022." Thursday's bar "is the only candle that is actually engulfed the prior two to three days," and Friday did not break the prior day's lows. "They ring the bell at the top every single day but they don't ring the bell at the bottom." "Small caps are holding on really well comparatively," and JPMorgan "did not break down" on earnings. On the SPY, "the pre-covered highs this little area right here to me is so important," and "if we break this down this is a this is a huge breakdown." Below 222 on the QQQs, "the volume profile starts to matter around 190 and it it accelerates around 164," and "the next biggest support is 110." Roblox shows "accumulation across the board," but "this could gyrate between let's say 20 and 53 for the next five to ten years." "If we don't hold this area I think we get into an apathetic market."
GP said Apple is three weeks tight at "138 to 140.09 and 138.30," and "Apple I think is 12 or 14 of the" QQQs. "Apple's 200-day moving average is 108. that's 30 down from here." On Nvidia, "one times the revenue puts it at 29 to 30 billion." On the 150 VIX calls, "it's a gambler," and "there's 200 000 contracts at 75. so that could have been part of a long dated call spread." The XBI's big November 100 call buy went from "two dollars and 25 cents" to "29 cents." "I'm paying attention to the the the intraday flows." Netflix gets "40 of their earnings" from domestic and "sixty percent comes from International," so "I think it's going to be January that will that will see the real move." On the NASDAQ Composite, "we held this trend line," and "the the USD JPY chart is what I'm watching." "There's not a single call in the money right now it's all puts," so "8 to 10 is possible." The XLE "seems to be the point that people have been hiding in," and "it's been lower lows since it peaked in June."
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