Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:32 Ben: Bulls Chasing Are Going to Lose It All
03:37 GP: Not Every Company Will Survive
06:11 GP: Free Money Is Gone
07:44 Rotation, Biotech and the XBI
10:17 Nick: IWM and Biotech as the Risk Tell
10:47 What If Crypto Is Still Leading?
12:51 Crypto's Negative Oil Moment
17:02 Bitcoin and Ethereum vs the 2000 Leaders
18:05 GP: Ethereum Hasn't Liquidated
23:53 Bitcoin or Amazon?
25:28 Ben: Earnings Week and the Retailers
26:31 Supply, Demand and the Fed
29:04 Ben: Warren Pies' CPI Take
31:04 Ben: Blast Through 4100, Then Retest
32:04 GP: The Jackson Hole Level
36:12 GP: Volatility at the End of Cycles
38:45 Nick: An IWM Head and Shoulders?
39:47 GP: Costco and the Retailers
45:28 Ben: Four Incredible Weeks for the Semis
49:03 The XLE: Double Top or 200?
53:40 GP: Energy Diverges From Oil
54:42 The OIH
56:15 Nick: Oil's Measured Move
57:48 GP: The Weekly Bear Cross
1:00:25 Gold, the Miners and Franco-Nevada
1:04:36 One Thing to Watch
1:12:25 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #43 went out live on Sunday, November 13, with Ben, Nick and GP. After the QQQs ripped 8.8% on the week, Ben opened with the Imperial March and a warning that the bulls chasing would lose it all. GP and Nick argued crypto was having its negative oil moment after FTX. The three also covered free money being gone, the Jackson Hole level, retail earnings, the semis' four-week run, whether the XLE goes to 200, gold and the miners, and their one thing to watch.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "we're going to be moving back into a period where like the iwm and you know biotech is going to be the the areas that are going to tell us whether it's like Risk on or risk off." On crypto, "let's just say Bitcoin and ethereum are basically the Google and Amazon of the crypto world," the ones that "will be the ones that like emerge the monsters from this." Looking at the IWM, "this looks like a almost a head and shoulders," but "I think we see more upside from here." On the XLE, "I think that it's breaking out of a massive massive range," and "I think a monster move is coming," with "between 170 and 200" as the target. On oil, the USO chart has "broken out of that channel," and "we broke that trend line and we retested it." On gold, "it basically broke out of" the 2022 channel. Ben deferred to him on Franco-Nevada, which "looks like accumulation on the weekly." His one thing to watch is GlobalFoundries, "a monster in the making." OXY shows "an ascending triangle with like a nice three week three week tight at the top there."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "there's just too much exuberance after what a tremendous week," and "I'm not getting excited over this big up week." On the S&P, "would it surprised me if we went up and kissed 4100 this week no." He noted that "in 2000 Microsoft Cisco Exxon GE and Intel were the five largest stocks in the S P 500." Ahead of earnings from the retailers, "most of them should be giving us some guidance on what they think their holiday season is going to look like," and "I'll believe it when I see it." The S&P has "got a blast this 4100 and then you gotta you know you gotta come back and retest it." The Dow "looks different than what we've seen in the past," and "that makes me want to believe but we'll see." The semis have had "an incredible you know four weeks," after they "tagged the 61 8 retracement." The XLE showed "some strength bouncing off that 89 level," but it still looks like a double top, with "a huge negative Divergence here." Gold had "nice performance from the Shiny Rock" over the last two weeks, and "it's a false breakdown and immediate recovery." This week he's watching Nvidia and "Palo Alto is sort of my canary in a coal mine." "I'm not as bearish as I sound."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "half these companies are not going to survive right like the the regime changes there." "Free money is gone right it's going to be gone for quite a sometime," with inflation still at 7.7%, so "what you're seeing real time is in my opinion a rotation out of assets." On the 2000 comparison, "in 2000 Google wasn't even public," so the next crypto leader may not exist yet. Ethereum hasn't liquidated: "just look at this range since April 2021," and "we're not making lower lows." "I did start buying ethereum this weekend I will be adding to my positions," though "I'm not buying any tokens as of now." On the S&P, the pivot is the Jackson Hole sell-off: "that's the level I'm watching personally," and "if we take that out this week or in the next couple weeks I think I think we have a lot more upside." On the IWM, "the lows of the iwm was 188.66 and what do we tag 188.84." "Towards the end of Cycles and towards the bottom of Cycles volatility increases a lot."
On Costco, "you should take an hour out of your day and listen to this earnings call." Target and Walmart "do look good," but "there's a lack of accumulation." On energy, "I think there's a secular shift so XLE does go higher longer term," but "I also think momentum is waning here," and "oil has made lower highs since June." "We'll find out more from the 13fs that get reported this week." He said "you should already be long The XLE if you if you believe in that," otherwise "you buy the breakout you don't buy this nonsense." On oil, "you had a bearish 1021 cross on the smas on the weekly." The OIH "looks better than XLE momentum doesn't seem to be waning here." His pick is Netflix: "it hit 252 like literally almost to the penny and then reversed higher," and "you can't ignore the strength in apple."
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