Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:30 Ben: Stuck Between the 21 and 50 Weekly
02:02 GP: Netflix Won't Fill the Gap, Walmart Did
06:40 Nick: Will the Old Leaders Lead?
07:43 Apple: The Only Stock That Hasn't Broken Down
13:22 GP: Pulled-Forward Demand
16:33 Nick: We're Going Higher From Here
20:12 GP: Energy Strength vs Oil
25:26 Nick: XOM and OXY
28:34 GP: XLE Looks Like a Top
29:36 GP: Shorting First Solar Into 175
32:39 GP: Netflix as a Market Tell
33:40 Is Tesla a Buy?
35:12 GP: The QQQs and the Jackson Hole Level
41:26 GP: Tech Pivots and the XLF
43:58 Ben: Morgan Stanley
44:30 Options Trading and 0DTE
50:07 Ben: Nvidia, Taiwan Semi and GlobalFoundries
54:46 FTX and Crypto's Bad Actors
59:51 Nick: Bonds, LQD and HYG
1:01:54 Ben: Overbought Real Quick
1:03:28 The Monthly McClellan
1:06:00 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #44 went out live on Sunday, November 20, with Ben, Nick and GP. After a slightly down week, Ben noted the S&P stuck between its 21- and 50-week averages. Nick called the lows in, saying "we're going higher from here," and GP mapped the QQQs toward the Jackson Hole level. The three also debated Apple as the last stock standing, Netflix's unfilled gap, energy versus oil, a First Solar short into 175, Tesla, options gambling, GlobalFoundries and the monthly McClellan.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "I don't think that our old leaders are gonna be what really leads us out of this," though "I don't think all the old leaders are going to just be cast aside." On Apple, "you have basically the ceiling at about 180. you have a floor that's basically been at that 135," and if it takes out 130, "I would argue that the next stop is going to be in that 100 to 110 range." "I think we're going higher from here," with the SPY pushing "into kind of like that I don't know 430 450 area" into year-end, and "I think the lows are in." He expects "some back filling," but the November 10 breakout was "on big volume." In energy, he likes XOM and OXY, which "looks like a big ascending triangle to me." In XOM, "the overwhelming majority of those closes are towards the high of the day," in "a consolidation range between 115 and 108." In bonds, the LQD "looks constructive here," though "I don't like how it rejected that 106 kind of covid low." The McClellan has been "churning at like an overbought" reading, and "you're not pounding the table at least I'm not."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "we're kind of stuck in this a little range here between the 21 weekly and the 50 weekly," but on the daily "it's holding all the moving averages," "so hey there there's there's some bullish sentiment from your boy bags." On Tesla, "I am not in a bull camp on Tesla currently but that doesn't mean I'm not positive Tesla long term." Morgan Stanley is "flagging above the" EMAs "and you've got the Crossovers happening." In semis, Nvidia "didn't have a great report," but "it's the other chips," with Berkshire taking "a huge position in Taiwan semi." "If you get an opportunity to buy GFS in the 40s again or even lower it's to me it's it's a no-brainer." "It just feels like we went from oversold to overbought real quick," so it's "another another week of bags sitting on his hands."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Netflix "still refuses to fill the Gap," while "even Walmart filled the Gap off of earnings." Netflix "bottomed in may not June not August it bottomed in May," and "if this does break down I think other stuff starts breaking down again." On Apple, "on all metrics apple is trading expensive yet it is the only stock that hasn't broken down," and "it just keeps holding that like 134 to 137 area." "2020 was a pull forward of demand for a few years," and the question is "how much growth did they pull forward." Energy strength is "mind-boggling," and "I don't see the the the compelling reason to stay long energy at all here." The XLE went "400 percent in two years," and "to me this all just looks topping." "I think shorting the solars looks as another plausible thing here," with "around 175" as First Solar's big pivot, and the flag's measured move "gets you to that 175 area as well."
On the QQQs, "this time there's actually accumulation," and "I think the push from here gets us to that Jackson Hole area," which will "coincide with the the declining 200 SMA." "Tech is still pretty weak it's still breaking pivots to the downside," while energy and the dollar are "holding and then reversing." The XLF "closed below the nine but then it reversed higher so that to me is a is a shift in character." For options, "if you're trading options and you normally trade like two weeks out on your setups add a month and then add another three months," and "I still think the best way to do options is to sell right premium." GlobalFoundries "seems like a set it and forget it." On FTX, it "doesn't mean crypto's a scam it just means there's going to be a lot of Bad actors." The HYG's "pullbacks have been on much lower volume." The monthly McClellan "is still negative 16 right now," but "it's actually breaking higher and didn't make it didn't make new lows when October made new lows."
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