Chapters
00:00 Intro: Ben and GP, Nick Out
00:42 Ben: Another Week of Bearish Bags
01:13 GP: The SPY Holds the 200 EMA
02:47 The Dow's Breakout
04:21 GP: A Change of Character in the Dow
11:35 Salesforce Earnings
12:07 Ben: The Semis' Three Weeks Tight
14:08 GP: The QQQs' Three Weeks Tight
16:43 China Protests and the Macro
18:19 Ben: Healthcare Breaks Out
21:31 Biotech and AbCellera
22:32 GP: Shopify's Base
23:35 GP: First Solar's Base Breakout
25:09 GP: The XLE's Double Top
29:50 Is Exxon a Good Short?
32:53 GP: A Put Calendar Approach
35:31 GP: Why He Covered His XLE Short
37:08 Ben: Overbought Can Stay Overbought
38:08 GP: Tech Breaks Pivots, the Dollar Doesn't
42:12 GP: LQD, Junk Bonds and the TLT
45:21 Solar: TAN and Enphase
47:22 Goldman Sachs and BlackRock
53:33 GP: Tesla's 2016 Analog
57:43 GP: Apple Is the Last Domino
59:47 GP: Netflix Won't Fill the Gap
1:01:19 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #45 went out live on Sunday, November 27, with Ben and GP. Nick was out. Ben opened with another week of bearish bags as the SPY pressed into its 50-week EMA and a falling trend line. GP pointed to the QQQs and semis sitting three weeks tight above key moving averages and to strength in bonds. The two also went through healthcare's breakout, Shopify, First Solar, the XLE and Exxon, the dollar, Goldman Sachs, Tesla's 2016 analog and Apple as the last domino.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "we're dangerously close to that 50 weekly EMA and that trend line coming down." "This is an important zone for for the Dow," because "it basically topped out where it did back in August." "Support becomes resistance and resistance to become support," and "we're basically where we've been... three other times this year." In the semis, "every time we've come up to these points where we've had you know a flagging pattern it would break down," but "we're in week two right now." "We'll just buy the breakout right we don't want to buy it before it breaks out," and "this is not not the spot where you know you pound the table." On healthcare, "I've hated on health care for so long," but "holy cow when you look look at the XLV," and Gilead, "also known as the Widowmaker," broke out. AbCellera "looks great if if it's able to break out 19 here we come." On Exxon, "you've got declining volume," and "we had this huge negative Divergence happening," so "I don't like it long here." "Overbought can stay overbought and oversold can stay oversold." On the LQD, "106.94 is a line that I have on that chart." Goldman's monthly is "a base breakout retest," and "I wouldn't say this is due for a correction."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "it's two back-to-back days over the 200 EMA" on the SPY, but "I'm more bearish to spy than I am Tech." "The small caps as weak as they've been recently were one of the few ones that didn't actually make a lower low." On the Dow, "on Friday was the first day that we made a higher high and held it so that's definitely a change in character." The SMH's last three weekly closes were "221.25 last week was 219.52 and the week before that was 228," a three-weeks-tight setup "ready for higher." The QQQs are "three weeks tight above the weekly 200" EMA, "potentially in a false breakdown setup." Shopify "is on the verge of testing the the top of the channel which is the 42 area," then "the bigger test will be the 49 to 51 area." First Solar is "a 14-year base Breakout or a 12-year base breakout," and "I don't think it's a long-term short personally." The XLE is "what you'd typically call a double top," and "I think it takes out the 102 level and it goes higher" if it breaks through. "I was short," but "I saw no follow-through and because I saw no follow through I got out."
On Exxon, "the short setup would be with a break and close of that 105 area," and "the way I would handle that is using put calendars." "Tech continues to break pivot lows right whereas XLE dollar USD JPY all are weak but aren't breaking pivot lows." For the dollar, "unless we break this pivot low... 104.63 ish," there's no confirmation. He thinks the dollar's weakness comes from "a lot of other currencies starting to raise rates." The LQD "broke through that pivot low," and the TLT "retook those levels this week." Goldman "was a 50 retrace of the move from 2020 lows to 20 21 highs," and "wave three moves are Relentless." Tesla "looks exactly like the 2014 to 2019 consolidation pattern just compressed," and its 2016 move went from a low of about $9.40 to roughly $18.27, "nearly a hundred percent move." "I think Apple's more of a bubble than than Tesla," and "it looks very similar to Tesla before Tesla took a 50 haircut." On Netflix, "for it to not fill the Gap after bottoming before everything else is kind of a concern." "Shopify is the one I'm watching this week."
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