Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:34 GP: 2022's Bull Setups Failed, Now the Bear Setups Are Failing
02:08 GP: Netflix Into Earnings
06:24 Nick: Netflix's Channel
07:25 Ben: OpEx Week Shenanigans
07:56 GP: TSM and JPMorgan on Earnings
10:33 Ben: When Bad News Becomes Good News
11:35 GP: The Year of Individual Names
13:36 GP: Moderna's Rounding Bottom
15:10 Nick: Energy Positions
15:42 GP: Short the XLE, Buy the OIH
16:46 Caterpillar and Deere
17:16 GP: Utilities Look Like Distribution
18:24 Crypto and Rotation
19:26 GP: A Cyclical Bear in a Larger Bull?
19:56 Ben: Bitcoin's 23 Level
22:34 Ben: Fed Week Volatility Ahead
24:10 GP: The QQQs' 3WT and January OpEx
26:16 GP: Lockheed and Oxy Weaken
28:13 One Stock to Buy This Week
28:45 GP: Amazon's Monthly Engulfing
30:23 Apple and Tesla
31:28 Ben: Spotify and Square
32:30 GP: Shopify and MongoDB
33:33 Nick: Cautiously Optimistic
35:03 The XBI and IBB
37:06 Vertex
39:09 First Solar vs. Enphase
40:43 Ben: China and YINN
43:51 Alibaba at 105
48:35 Ben: Semis and Nvidia
50:06 Intel and the 13Fs
52:15 Tesla's Price Cuts
54:18 ALGM and the IPO-Low Rule
55:51 Ben: Snowflake and Coinbase
56:58 Nick's Picks: Array, ALGM and PDD
57:29 GP's Picks: MercadoLibre, Amazon and Macy's
1:00:03 GP: The Consumer Isn't Dead
1:02:44 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #52 went out live on Sunday, January 15, ahead of the MLK Day market holiday, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP said the bear setups are now failing the way bull setups did all of 2022, and pointed to TSM and JPMorgan rallying on so-so earnings. Ben said that's what it looks like when bad news becomes good news, and Nick said he's cautiously optimistic. The hosts went through Netflix into earnings, energy rotation, Bitcoin, Amazon, the XBI, China and Alibaba at 105, Nvidia and their picks for the week.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said Netflix is "just a nice Channel off that bottom," and "if it came in at 284" or "retested that Weekly 21 EMA down there... I wouldn't see that as as a bad thing at all." On energy, he has positions in Hess and XOM, and "I sold into this a little bit." "I guess cautiously optimistic," and "I really want... to see us like rally on" bad news. "I think it'd be great to see some of these earnings reports" that disappoint "get bought up." The XBI "hasn't really taken out... a pivot High per se like that kind of that 95-ish area," but "I think it looks great." "I would actually argue that vrtx looks amazing," as "it took out that trend line." "If I could get a chance at Baba anywhere around 100 I think could be a gift," and "there's a gap fill up basically 120 65." His picks: Array "was probably one of my faves," he has "been watching" ALGM, and PDD is on his radar.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "it's a short week it's an Opex week like would Shenanigans surprise me in any way shape or form absolutely not," and "I kind of feel like earnings season as a whole if you're anywhere near in line should be kind of muted." He wants "good news is good news bad news is bad news," and "that might signal a bottom when things sort of normalize in that way." "If Bitcoin can reach that like 23 level and just sort a base out there I would see see that as extremely positive," and "Bitcoin is showing dominance for the first time really in a while." With Fed meetings ahead, "the next couple weeks that might be Herky jerky," and "I've deployed cash the past few months here and there so I'm not even in a hurry to jump on a landmine." "I'm not a buyer this week." On China, "this has been a opportunity missed for a trade just because of my own personal bias." YINN's "monthly nine... is up there at 69," but "when you look at the weekly like it's already recaptured." "I love the semis," "the Nvidia is one of the best charts known to man right now," and "the retrace of the October to November highs to the recent lows was exactly 61.8 percent." He holds SOXL. "I really like the Spotify chart," "I'll give you Spotify and square," he likes Snowflake again "if everything's gonna go up," and "I'm still gonna stick by coin."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said all the bull setups in 2022 failed, and "so far to the start of the year it seems like every bear setup is kind of failing." Netflix has "two big Tailwinds": the dollar, which took "a massive... 10 or 15 dump on the quarter," and "ad Revenue that they've never had before." "To me it looks like a ascending triangle," though "I'd be surprised if it broke out this time which is why I think it's more like April or May." TSM had a "massive breakout" on "not great earnings," and JPMorgan rallied on Friday too. "My thesis is it's the year of individual names right versus the indices," with Shopify, Pinterest and Moderna coming out of bases. Moderna "is putting in a rounding bottom one-year base at the covid 2020 kind of highs," and "if that rejects that I think 192 level" there's an argument "it's not ready." The pair trade is to short the XLE and buy the OIH, and "I think the rotation is out of the refiners to to the producers." "Utilities look like a distribution pattern." "What if this was just the... larger bull but a... cyclical bear within the larger" bull, after "a 61... retracement off the" COVID lows.
"The QQQs had a a 3wt," and "January Opex is a is a really big Opex." On the monthly, "the QQQs have made higher lows for months in a row," and the QQQs are "reclaiming the 15-month moving average." Lockheed made "two separate attempts at trying to break the 2020 highs and we're getting smoked," and "oxy looks to me not great." For one stock this week, "I would say Amazon," which "already took out the prior months High," and "this to me has the potential to be a 20 week in Amazon." Shopify "hammered on the weekly it held the 21 week moving average," and "the other one I like is MDB." On Vertex, "that kind of volume that comes this far into the move it's usually a sign of... final liquidation." "First Solar has like the least amount of debt and most amount of cash," and "fslr is also breaking out of a 14-year base." On Alibaba, "this is signaling pull back to our buy," and "pullbacks to 105 are probably going to be a gift." On MercadoLibre, "I'm long from last year I'm just waiting for it to finish its consolidation cycle." He also likes Nvidia and Amazon, and Macy's has "a big inverse Head and Shoulders playing out," and "I can see this pulling pushing back up to the the the high mid mid to high 40s in the next year." "I don't think the consumer is dead personally," and Target "looks so much better than Walmart now."
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