Chapters
00:00 Intro: GP in Studio With Ben
01:36 Nick: The QQQs' Channel and SPY Levels
04:45 GP: This Is What Bottoming Looks Like
09:21 Ben: Devil's Advocate on Netflix
10:25 GP: Pulled-Forward Demand
12:59 GP: Netflix and Tesla
14:01 Nick: Oxy, Gold and Energy
16:09 Metals and the XME
17:15 Nick: Google's Channel
18:53 Nick: The Weekly and Monthly McClellan
20:27 GP: Friday's Gamma Squeeze
21:28 Ben: The Mega Caps Catch a Bid
24:02 GP: Following the 13Fs
25:04 Nick: Amazon Through $100
26:36 Ben: Selling Puts and Covered Calls
28:39 Ben: Wait for the Breakout
31:19 GP: Start With the Monthly Charts
33:23 Nick: Amazon's Swing Targets
34:23 GP: Retesting the COVID Breakout
36:26 Ben: The Fed on February 1
39:32 GP: 50 vs. 75 Basis Points
44:37 Crypto
47:09 Ben: A Hanging Man?
49:48 Nick: How He Reads Candles
51:50 Removing the Wicks
54:28 Higher From Here?
55:28 Nick's Picks: Array and Vertex
57:06 GP: Netflix and China Lead
58:08 The XBI, Roku, Etsy and Redfin
1:00:42 Ben's Picks: Disney, Goldman and Palo Alto
1:01:44 Ben: Healthcare Shorts
1:03:14 GP: Oxy's Distribution and Target
1:03:45 Wrap-Up: 55 Weeks
Market Hours #53 went out live on Sunday, January 22, with GP in person at Ben's place and Nick on Zoom. GP argued this is what bottoming looks like: the QQQs have stopped breaking prior monthly lows, and beaten-down names are holding their moving averages. Nick kept a higher bias with clear SPY levels, Ben played devil's advocate, and the hosts covered Google, Amazon through $100, the February 1 Fed meeting, candle patterns and their picks for the week.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the QQQs are "still within a channel they haven't broken out of that channel yet," and "on the weekly... prices butting up against the 30 and the 40 week moving average," while "sitting on a you know a trend line that's been holding since 2011." His bias is higher, but "if 370 373 to like 367 got taken out I'd start to get nervous," and "if... 350 got taken" it would get "a lot even uglier." "I like oxy," "keep an eye keep an eye on GLD," and "I'd still be long commodity type stuff." Google "is testing the the high end of this channel," and "as price pushes into like basically 100 102 here 104," "it's really got to bust through that." "The weekly McClellan right now is pushing into... overbought territory at basically at 2 30," and "the monthly McClellan is pushing into about 150." On Amazon, "I'm definitely a buyer through a hundred," and "I like it for like a swing trade," up to the 50-month, "something like between 1 30 125 and 135," though "I think it runs into some problems in the... 110s." On candles, "I like igniting bars big like engulfing bars," and a huge daily engulfing bar is "a signal to kind of reduce my size." His picks: "I keep kind of stalking" Array, along with Vertex.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben asked, "if you believe Netflix is the market leader" and this is a bottoming process, "shouldn't it be higher from here." On the mega caps, "we've gone through periods of time where... two or three" were "bailing the water... for the rest of the cohort," and "Google that's a really strong move for Google." "I sold so many calls and puts over the last three weeks that my head is spinning and it was very profitable." "I sold puts to get long," and "I sold covered calls on a lot of positions," and "each time just keeps lowering my cost basis." "I'm not buying the s p at this level," because "buy the breakout or buy the retest of the breakout and we haven't broken out." On Amazon, "I was selling puts at 85." On the Fed, "I want to hear what he says in... February on February 1st," and "if they are less hawkish on February 1st I can see that as a major Catalyst." He asked whether the SPY's weekly is "a hanging man candle." His picks: "I like Disney this week," "I like some continuation" in Goldman, and "I also like Palo Alto for some continuation." "I like a short on anything that is healthcare related," including UNH and JNJ.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that for the QQQs, "for the past four months we have not" broken the prior month's low, and "this is a new regime money is no longer free and there is no v-shape." "This is what bottoming looks like." Nvidia "tagged the 21 week and we reversed higher," and "the pullbacks in the base are also getting shallower." "37 Corrections are not normal," and "I think we go sideways to" higher "probably over the next couple years." "In 2021 we saw the QQQs and spies just rail higher while almost everything was already getting thrashed underneath," and "now we're sitting in the opposite regime." Netflix and Tesla "got destroyed while they're becoming profitable." Friday "seemed like more of a gamma squeeze than anything else," and "the individual stocks are are the ones that are starting to look better." From the 13Fs, Google had the highest and Shopify the "second or third highest," and "I want to glom on to where money's already been." On the monthly charts, "these are the ones I'd be looking at in terms of if you're looking for trades to get long."
"My view has been that we're gonna go back and test and base the" COVID breakout, since the QQQs "broke out in June 2020 at above 255" and "we didn't create any base there." On the Fed, "if they come out with 75 basis points again that's your Catalyst," and "to me it would be get Max short." "50 is what everyone should be expecting," and "I think inflation's already peaked." "I think Netflix and China are the leaders," and "Netflix is probably going to guide you for the next three months on where price is going." On Occidental, "I see distribution all day," and "I like Target."
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