Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:05 GP: January OpEx and the Deep-in-the-Money Puts
03:40 Friday's Pullback: Apple and Netflix Held Up
05:12 Ben: Closing His QQQ Put Hedge
06:14 GP: The XLE's Distribution
08:17 Nick: An XLE Short Setup
09:49 GP: The 78.6 Retracement
12:23 Nick: Building a Short Position
13:55 Nick: Gold and the GLD
14:58 Ben: The Gold Miners
16:31 Biotech
17:03 Nick: ALGM and Uber
18:38 Backfill or Higher?
20:14 GP: The Leash Is Off
22:51 GP: Shallow Pullbacks Into February OpEx
24:24 The VIX
25:24 GP: China and the KWEB
27:30 Ben: YINN and LABU
28:01 GP: The XLF's 13-Year Breakout
29:36 GP: The XLU and Waste Management
30:38 Homebuilders
31:10 GP: OFG
33:45 AI Stocks
34:51 GP: Rotation Out of the Defensives
36:54 Ben: Biotech, Small Caps and Semis
37:27 Apple's Monthly Chart
40:03 Dow Transports
40:33 Natural Gas
42:06 GP: Occidental and Buffett
44:42 Tesla
48:54 Nick: Tesla's Backfill
51:27 GP: Rotation and Breadth
53:33 Nick's Picks: Uber
54:03 GP's Picks: First Solar, Alibaba and Netflix
58:13 Peloton, Chewy and GEO
59:45 Ben's Picks: Semis and an XLV Short
1:01:20 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #54 went out live on Sunday, February 5, with Ben, Nick and GP, after a week off and a sharp rally. GP said January OpEx let the market off its leash and argued for shallow pullbacks into February OpEx, while he and Nick laid out why the XLE looks like distribution and where Nick would short it. The hosts also covered gold, China, the XLF breakout, Tesla's backfill levels and their picks for the week, from Uber and First Solar to Netflix and the semis.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said of the XLE, "I think like a great it's like a great short setup," and "I want to see that trend line get taken out." "We put in a lower high," and "my first Target would be like would be 70," then "I think it's going to find... a floor somewhere in the kind of the mid 50s." "My intention is to start to build a short position on the on the break of that trend line," with "a smaller position size" and "my stop basically at... 95." On the GLD, "I would like to see if it holds the 50-day," but "I got stopped out basically at market open on the break of the 20-day," after "it hit its measure move which was basically right here at 180." "I did grab some algm," and "I like how Uber looks." Names "basing over the last... six months to a year" are "going you know stage one stage two." On Tesla, "near term I think your opportunity right 160s," and "I think you get an opportunity at like the mid 150s you might get like 154." For the week, "I'm still on Uber."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "I was getting out of my QQQ puts as a hedge coming out of Thursdays big earnings with apple and Amazon and Google," and "I sold quick because again it was just a hedge." On the gold miners, "it's holding the moving averages right now," but Friday's daily move doesn't have him "brimming full of confidence." He looked at YINN "and I just ran the old you know Mars ghost pattern over top of it," and "I also got into... labu two weeks ago." "If you've got biotech and small caps and semiconductors... leading... chances are you're in a bull market." On Tesla, "I might be interested in puts like in that 190 200 area," with a "mean reversing to the 200 day." For the week, "I gotta go semi's," "I think Nvidia just looks... awesome still," and Qualcomm "still looks great to me." "Keep an eye on GFS because they have earnings this week." His short is Healthcare: "XLV just don't like it," and "outside of energy this is my least favorite place to fish."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said the "deep deep in the money puts" tied to January OpEx stopped as soon as it passed, and "I think it has a lot to do with flow." On Friday Apple still went higher, and Netflix "outperformed all your Tech." The XLE "is textbooked distribution," because oil peaked in March 2022 and "if oil continues to drip... this XLE starts to play catch up." "Almost every chart did a 78.6 retracement" of the COVID lows to highs, and for the XLE "that 78 6 retracement... is right around 30." "I don't think it's a trend line break I think it's a moving average break personally." "My my theory was that January" OpEx "was going to let the leash go and that's exactly what happened." Shopify has had "eleven-ish moves to the top of the... rectangle and right back down," and "I think this pushes with shallow pullbacks into February Opex." After that, he expects the VIX to spike, with "a backfill or or back test of the breakout."
"I like China here," and KWEB "literally tagged the 2016 lows and then reversed immediately higher the next month," going "from 17 to 40 nearly." On the XLF, "you have a 14 13-year break and retest and hold and flag and now breaking through," and "I really like what the banks are doing." On Waste Management, "why are you going to be long Waste Management when you can have a risk-free return of four percent in a bank." On OFG, "these are the types of names that you want to be long that no one's paying attention to." "This Market is to me setting up for the bigger move higher," with "rotation from defensive sectors from energy sectors." "I think Apple probably underperforms my personal opinion over the next six to 12 months." On Occidental, "I could see him stepping in like the 40s." On Tesla, "you buy dips when you get them like this," and "I assume that in the near future... 6 to 18 months that it will get 122 will get retested." His picks: "First one is fslr to the upside," "a nice tight flag near the 2008 pivot." "I'm looking for Baba at 105." On Netflix, "if it breaks over the monthly pivot which is 369.02 I believe you have... a decent Runway to about 406," the 200-week SMA, and it could fill the gap to the upside at 510.
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